If you add $2,200 to the existing $6,000 SA battery subsidy, South Australians can get an $8,200 discount on the TeslaPowerwall 2. But as always, read the small print.
On Thursday Tesla announced it will lower the price of its Powerwall 2 battery storage system by $2,200 for South Australian residents. This will make the Powerwall 2’s minimum installed cost around $7,100. After adjusting for the SA battery subsidy it’s now only around $1,000 more than it was at the start of 2018. With luck we won’t have to wait too much longer for it to be back down to where it was 20 months ago.
The price cut does come with a couple of catches. It is only available to South Australian residents who are on-grid and have a suitable solar power system or are willing to get one. It is also necessary to allow Tesla control of the Powerwall 2 battery, as it will be used as part of a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). If you don’t like this you can pay a fee and leave immediately or you can wait and escape Scott free after only 12 months.
James Doohan: Technically Scott free.
If you decide to stay as part of the, VPP the Tesla Energy Plan will charge you the lowest rate for grid electricity in South Australia I know of and has no daily supply charge.
If you are thinking of getting a Powerwall 2 to save money, this price decrease can make it possible if — and only if — your electricity consumption and solar generation are suitable. Even with the decrease I don’t see how it can pay for typical households. But if you want a Powerwall 2 and aren’t worried about making money from it, this might be a good opportunity for you to get one.
Unfortunately for Tesla, I think a significant number of customers will be put off by their failure to mention Powerwall 2’s installation cost anywhere in their information on the SA offer. Price cuts make people happy, but suddenly finding out they are expected to pay an installation cost that is more than what they are being asked for the battery is just likely to piss them off. It’s like Tesla got all dressed up in his Sunday best and then, just before leaving the house, decided to slap a cow pat on his head as a hat.1
Bust A Deal Face The Wheel
If you make use of this offer you are expected to remain part of the Tesla Energy Plan and VPP for at least 12 months. But if you want to bust the deal you can pay a termination charge of $100 for each month early you leave. So you could join, get the $2,200 discount, and then pay $1,200 to immediately break free and still be $1,000 ahead.
When you think about it, saving $1,000 is a wheely good deal.
If you already have a Powerwall 2 and want to join Tesla’s Energy Plan the good news is you can without any fees or charges when you join or leave.2
The Tesla Energy Plan
If you join their VPP, Tesla’s Energy Plan has a couple of impressive features and a couple of decidedly sub-impressive features:
- Per kilowatt-hour grid electricity charge: 31.1 cents (Excellent!)
- Daily supply charge: 0 cents (Stupendous!)
- Solar feed-in tariff: 10 cents (Boooooo!)
- At times electricity from the Powerwall battery will be used to support the grid. There is no mention of payment for this, so I assume there is none, and no indication of how much or how often this will occur. (A concern.)
- At times the Powerwall 2 will charge itself from the grid so it will be ready to supply energy to the grid later. You will not have to pay for this. (Good to know.)
Not having to pay any supply charge is a good thing. Looking at the first plans I come across when I look for ones from Australia’s three largest largest electricity retailers I see their annual supply charges in Adelaide are:
- Origin Energy: $304
- AGL: $325
- Energy Australia: $281
It appears not having to pay supply charges will save around $300 a year compared to these plans. However, Energy Locals, which is the retailer that will be administrating Tesla’s Energy Plan, has annual supply charges in Adelaide of only $257 a year.
Tesla’s charge for grid electricity is also the lowest I’m aware of. Looking at the plans of the big three that appear most suitable for solar households I see their per kilowatt-hour charges are:
- Origin Energy: 36.9 cents
- AGL: 40.4 cents
- Energy Australia: 38.5 cents
The plan with the lowest per kilowatt-hour charge I can find is around 35.1 cents from Energy Locals. This makes the Tesla plan around 11% cheaper per kilowatt-hour.
The feed-in tariff is not so great at only 10 cents. This is less than half the 22 cents from Amaysim that is available to the majority of solar homes in South Australia and also considerably less than the 15.5 cents Energy Locals offer.3
Energy Losses From VPP Grid Support
Because Tesla gives no information on how much power from the battery is likely to be discharged to support the grid, I will make an educated stab in the dark. If the Powerwall 2 battery supplies energy to the grid equal to discharging at its maximum continuous power output for 50 hours a year the household will lose 250 kilowatt-hours of energy. If one quarter of this comes from solar power that would have received a feed-in tariff while three-quarters represents extra grid consumption, then the average annual increase in their electricity bill would be $64.
This doesn’t seem much compared to saving around $300 by not having to pay supply charges. But it is a complete guess. One I’m forced to make as Tesla gives no indication of what it’s likely to be. I suspect the cost will be fairly low as it doesn’t make sense to create a VPP and then drive people away. Especially when they are free to leave after 12 months.
Still Unlikely To Be Worthwhile For Most Households
Even with the reduced price, the Tesla Energy Plan, and the SA battery subsidy; a Powerwall 2 seems unlikely to be economically worthwhile for most solar households.
A couple of weeks ago I looked at the best electricity plans for typical solar households in capital cities. In Adelaide the example household had three people in it and the following characteristics:
- Solar power system size: 6.5 kilowatts
- Total annual electricity consumption: 6,326 kilowatt-hours
- Annual grid electricity consumption: 3,793 kilowatt-hours
- Annual solar self consumption: 2,533 kilowatt-hours
- Annual solar electricity exports: 6,515 kilowatt-hours
- Feed-in tariff: 22 cents with Amaysim retail plan.
- Annual electricity bill: $464.
If this household gets a Powerwall 2 and Tesla Energy Plan and I make these assumptions:
- 75% of the household grid electricity use is replaced with stored energy.
- The Powerwall 2 is charged entirely by rooftop solar.
- The Powerwall 2 has a round trip efficiency of 85%.4
- No kilowatt-hours are discharged from the battery to support the grid.
Then the characteristics of the household would become:
- Total annual electricity consumption: 6,753 kilowatt-hours
- Annual grid electricity consumption: 948 kilowatt-hours
- Annual solar electricity self consumption: 3,272 kilowatt-hours
- Annual solar exports: 3,243 kilowatt-hours
- Average daily stored energy consumption: 7.8 kilowatt-hours
- Annual stored energy consumption: 2845 kilowatt-hours
- Annual losses from battery use: 427 kilowatt-hours
- Annual electricity bill: $29 credit
So, using my assumptions, this household would be around $493 a year better off. If they paid the minimum installed cost of around $7,100 for a Powerwall 2 it would have a simple payback time of 14.4 years. If my guess that supporting the grid will cost the household $64 a year is correct then the simple payback time would be 16.6 years. As both these would require the Tesla Powerwall 2 to last well beyond its warranty to pay for itself, this is not a good deal for the household.
Optimistic Scenario: Vampires
In the above example an average of 7.6 kilowatt-hours of stored energy is supplied by the Powerwall 2 each day. As the battery’s usable capacity when new is 13.5 kilowatt-hours, it’s only being used at a capacity factor of 58%. If this figure was raised it would improve Powerwall payback time but there are two main problems with getting it to a high level:
- Most households won’t use all the energy in a fully charged Powerwall 2 every night.
- There will be times when the battery will hold less energy than the household wants to use overnight due to cloudy whether and/or daytime electricity consumption being high.
Even if I assume a household with a 6.5 kilowatt solar system is inhabited by vampires that use no electricity during the day and they use all the available stored energy in a Powerwall 2 every night, it’s still likely to be used at a capacity factor of less than 90%. This is because there will be many overcast days when the 6.5 kilowatt rooftop solar power system will be unable to fully charge it.
But if it’s assumed this house is located far enough inland so they can use the battery at 90% capacity factor thanks to there being few cloudy days and all the inhabitants are vampires that lie in their coffins from sunrise to sunset and so use no solar electricity during the daytime, then based on the example above their annual electricity bills would be:
- Without a battery system: $666
- With a Powerwall 2 and Tesla’s Energy Plan: $757 in credit
This puts the household $1,423 ahead with the Powerwall 2 and shortens the simple payback time to 5 years — provided it never discharges power to support the grid. So under the right circumstances a Tesla Powerwall 2 can pay itself off in a very reasonable period. Unfortunately, no solar electricity consumption and a battery capacity factor of 90% are not reasonable assumptions to make for typical households and the simple payback time is likely to be far longer in reality.
Larger Solar Power Systems
I considered homes with 6.5 kilowatt solar systems above, which is around the most commonly installed size these days. A larger solar power system could help a Powerwall 2 be used at higher capacity as it would be able to fully charge it more often, but because the Tesla Energy Plan’s feed-in tariff is low compared to what’s available, it would result in lower payment for surplus solar electricity sent into the grid – and large solar systems generally produce a lot of surplus. As there is both a pro and a con, whether or not the Powerwall 2 deal can pay eventually pay for itself will depend on individual circumstances.
Reduced Backup Power
One drawback of being part of a VPP is when a blackout occurs your battery may have already been drained of energy from supporting the grid, leaving none for back up. To counter this, you can leave a reserve of 20% of the Powerwall 2’s usable storage capacity ready to supply your home in case of blackouts. The disadvantage is it will lower its economic return as there will be times when that energy could be used to lower electricity bills but will be reserved and unavailable.
Tesla Fails To Mention Powerwall Installation Cost
With their price cut South Australians can get a Tesla Powerwall 2 installed for a minimum of around $7,100. Because some extra work is required for most homes it is likely to be more than this. But on their site Tesla does not give even an approximate amount for the cost of installation. On this page they mention a price of $3,499 five times, which is the cost of the Powerwall 2 without installation5, But not once do they give even an approximate figure for the cost of installation. I thought this was against Australian Consumer Law, but after reading the details I guess they have enough wiggle room to stay out of trouble.
Based on what Tesla charges, the lowest possible installed cost will be $7,080 which is more than double the $3,499 figure Tesla gives for just the battery. I don’t see how trying to keep this secret is going to help. I expect they’ll lose a lot of sales due to disgust when people find out the installation cost is more than what they have to shell out for the battery system alone.
Insurance Issues
If a Powerwall 2 is only charged by rooftop solar power its warranty will last for 10 years. But, if it is charged from another energy source, which it will be when used as part of a VPP, then the warranty will only last for the first of 10 years or until 37,800 kilowatt-hours of stored energy is supplied. This is still likely to last a typical household 10 years, but if the VPP uses the battery to support the grid a great deal it could significantly shorten its warranty.
What I Would Do
If I was using this deal to buy a Tesla Powerwall 2 there are at least two things I’d want to know:
- Would I receive compensation for energy discharged to support the grid or will there be a limit set on how much will be discharged?
- How will the warranty be affected by being part of the VPP?
However, I probably wouldn’t use this deal because I like saving money and I don’t see how it will enable my home6 to do so.
(Added January 16, 2020: Compare Virtual Power Plant programs with our new VPP comparison table)
Footnotes
- Actually, the real Tesla was much more likely to end up with pigeon droppings on his head, but that’s a whole other story. ↩
- But if you got your Powerwall as part of someone else’s VPP, I’m sure joining Tesla’s VPP is not on. ↩
- Given that households export less solar electricity when they install a battery, I’m surprised they made their feed-in tariff so low compared to the competition. ↩
- Finn’s Powerwall 2 appears to have a round trip efficiency of about 85%. ↩
- After the $6,000 SA battery subsidy and after the $2,200 price decrease for joining their VPP for 12 months. ↩
- Okay, my ex-wife’s home. ↩
About Ronald Brakels
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5. Okay, my ex-wife’s home. – Hahahaaaa, great retention of sense of humour 😉
Ps, great analysis.
The installation costs being charged are just price gouging to the max. The job would normally only take about 2-3hours (i.e. mount the gateway with 4 bolts, slap on some couplers, mount the PW and your done). So how can any installer / electrician be charging $500->$1000/hr in labour? It’s BS!
Clearly you haven’t done many of these installs Peter T. The Tesla’s are a minimum 6 hours for 2 people plus there are ancillary costs (like Type A RCDs which need to be swapped in for any circuits you want backed up). Quite often the Tesla is mounted remotely from the switchboard, which can mean a long cable run, and then there is the time to set it up and walk customer through etc, get the paperwork done. Batteries are complicated to install and any electrician charging less than $1500 for this is going backwards.
Best argument (since my last one) for getting the local half-witted chimp to install a suitable LA battery-bank, which would take him about 3.5 minutes and can be done for the princely (apely ) sum of 4 bananas …..or 2 banana-and-sugar-sprinkle sandwiches.
Ben….why do I have a vague sense that you’re a government bureaucrat?
AND INIDENTALLY ! …. FINN appaerently agrees that’s the wy to go:-
Have a look at this… (scroll down if you miss it the first time.)
https://www.collectivenounslist.com/2017/05/18/what-is-a-group-of-apes-called
Thanks for the reply Jackson. I hadn’t seen Ben’s comment before now, but as a retired electronics and network engineer, with at least 20 yrs on the tools as baoth tradesman and workshop supervisor, I categorically stand by my original comment and I would caution people to reject such price gouging.
I had a Powerwall2 and Gateway installed today. Took 2 blokes working consistently from 8 to 4 to complete. In addition there was an earlier site inspection would took 30 mins and a trip out and back. I suggest you have a go at it Peter T and report back, ‘cos I reckon your armchair estimate may be well off.
Good analysis as always Ronald.
A few minor points (which probably do nothing to change your assessment about the likelihood so saving most people money) :-
1. To be fair, I recon round trip efficiency might be a little higher than 85% Finn has seen. There was a bunch of people who reported longer term efficiency numbers on a whirlpool forum, and I was surprised how close to 88% most of the figures become over the longer term for most users. If you do it over too short a term the efficiency numbers can be affected 1 way or the other other by as simple things as the state of change when you take the kWh from and to the battery. I would be curious if Finns numbers are as low as 85% over the longer term and suspect they might be a bit better than this, unless he has something wrong or something like very low usage (again, nothing here that would effect the overall thrust of you article).
2. Be aware that at some share Tesla have changed there warranty a little. Orginally as you say that 10 years only applied if you charged only from solar. But since they they have changed to the wording to include “time based control” which I can also assume might include charging from the grid for “time based control and backup” which became available in software upgrades. Now this wording would seem to preclude VPP usage which would seem to go well beyond “time based control”. But I wonder if Tesla will change the wording again and include its own implementation of VPP as it might have control to keep the usage within the specs it is happy with for a 10 year warranty???.
3. 1st thing I got curious about when I saw this deal, is how much the VPP might be used, and how they might reward you for this usage. As you say the fine print certainly does not make this clear. Even the paragraph explaining they will not charge you for usage to support the grid is HIGHLY ambiguous. And I have to be suspicious aiming to cover something up???. When I read that wording, I thought that might only apply when they “pre-charge” the battery to fill it up, in preparation for a peak period so THEY have the benefit of a full battery in for a peak time??? But thought it might not apply when they discharge your full battery (from your solar), but then potentially much later you might need to import because VPP used your battery power earlier in the day. I guessed this might mean that ultimately you sell your battery power for 10c export, and then in a lot of cases might need to be buying it back 31.1c which would be a monumentally bad deal for the home owner. But again, the devil is in the detail. I guess the best case it is possible they simply do not charge you for the same amount of power that the VPP takes, which might on the face of it seem reasonable. But even then, that would still be a very bad deal if they don’t also pay you for that discharge, because you would still be having to pay for the efficiency losses + you loose your blackout protection + you are wearing out the battery for very little benefit to you. To make it even harder pill to swallow, no doubt they will be no doubt making windfall profit in these times, so it seems a very bad deal to be not sharing some of that with you. They have not provided the detail, so we all have to guess until they define it better. But I can’t help but feel the deal was worded more to trick you into thinking it was a good deal, and hid the downsides, and the wording certainly lacks objectivity. To me I am suspicious they are trying to put “lipstick on a pig”.
To me a it looks like there is no chance of regular unsubsidised battery can save any normal person money in Australia at current rates. It is telling that even with significant subsidies it is still a struggle. But to me this is because 1) batteries are too expensive and 2) the gap between the retail prices we pay for power, and the solar FiT is not enough. Thus getting economics for offsetting and shifting solar from export to offsetting later usage seems to be a model that will always fail until batteries are cheaper or there are big changes in the retail gap between import and solar FiT (or more likely a combination of both). To me the thing that could change that it using batteries for what they are good at at, rather than what they are not economic at. ie offsetting much more expensive rates like peak wholesale rates which might be up to $14 / kWh of FCAS services which I think can be even more??? If we can discharge at these times and get financial reward for doing this and providing these services and much higher rates, AND this happens often enough to make a difference, maybe this changes the game. So bring on VPP which presumable have the ability to delivery this. HOWEVER the sad thing for me, is that it appears that with the VPP plans I have seen, it is other parties OTHER than the home owner and tax payers (who pay the majority of the battery price) that looks likely to benefit!!! Seems the VPP what you to pay to install the battery, and still only continue to reap the unprofitable gains, while they get the benefits of reaping the profitable gains for a battery we install and mostly pay for (sure there is a small subsidy from the VPP). To me it seems trickery to encourage a consumer to give that resource away for measly maybe $300 a year, with the lure of cheaper electricity prices which will largely be fairly irrelevant anyway with a battery because of their small usage. To add insult to injury to claim that 10c FiT is “generous” when it looks like those same people can easily get 15.5c – 22c by not going on the plan. And this is forgetting that the tax payer is the real sucker because in SA they are the real looser because they pay the 2nd biggest component of the cost, for the smallest benefit (ie in fact $0 direct benefit). So by the look of it, consumer pays the most of the battery and gets a small benefit, tax payer pays almost as much as the consumer for no benefit, and Tesla discounts their battery by a small price to I assume rake in what I assume is likely to be the biggest benefit in partnership with the retailer (not sure how they share the spoils of this). To me it looks like 1 massive con job and further hype and misinformation about battery economics leaving the householder and tax payer to fund the bill, but be last in line to reap the benefits.
The really sad thing is just how many people have been conned but don’t even know it because of their “bill reduction” that has come from all sorts of other things and cost justification based on very poor set of assumptions.
In the interests of bring balance to my post above. It is worth pointing out that while this and other VPP deals I have see so far to do seem to stack up to the promise, there is some upside I do see that people in SA can potentially exploit. Lot of people could be in the market for a battery for all sorts of reasons other than economics (eg blackout protection). If so, and if the right battery for you is the PW2, then I suspect this deal does present a good deal for practically everyone that can get it. As Ronald points out, get on the deal, and even if you get out straight away, I assume you are in front even after paying for the penalty, so as I see it, no matter what way you cut it you will be in front of buying and PW2 not in this deal. Still might not pay for itself, but it will have cost you less than the alternative.
Or is there something in the SA subsidy fine print they means you have to be on a VPP?
Battery systems bought using the SA battery subsidy have to be VPP capable, but there is no requirement they need to be part of a VPP at this time. I suppose they are working on the premise VPPs will be so attractive in the future very few people will not want to join.
Further to the post above, another galling thing about the whole VPP deal where I can’t help but feel they are ripping us is when they offer to charge our batteries free when the power is needed to “support the grid”. In a lot of cases, they will even be making money when they do this when the power is not needed later. The reality of the current wholesale electricity market that we have now, is there are times in the grid when there are periods where the wholesale electricity price in the grid is negative. eg it is not uncommon where the wholesale price is actually negative $1 / kWh (yes that is $1000 / MWh for anyone who will use it)!!! Yes, that means if the VPP can suck up power charging your battery, they can get $1 / kWh for doing that. So again, there is plenty of revenue opportunities for VPP. So it is a shame (I assume largely because of battery over hype) the VPP companies have found little reason to share any of that with home owners. After all, if you can put lipstick on a pig and sell it, why would you need to offer 1c more.
Some good points there, Matthew
Ronald your reports are great and so too are some of the comments form your contributors, however why is it that there is no mention (from what I have read so far) about the Simply Energy VPP. This makes the PW2 affordable for many S. Australians, My colleague last month had a PW2 installed. The total price he paid was $6999.00 for the battery plus about $7.00 for some extra cable.
In short the SE plan is: They pay you $7.00 per day, that’s right $7.00 per day for 2 years uo to a total of $5100.00 to be part of the VPP. They include a 15 cent FIT. Yep,`15 cents. You pay 39c per kWh that you import and as has been pointed out with a battery you pay less overall because you import less anyway.
So in the case of my colleague after the SA HB Scheme rebate of $6000.00, he paid $7006.00 less the forth coming $5100.00 VPP rebate meaning he is out of pocket only $1906.00 for a fully installed Powerwall 2 for his single phase home.
(I am on 3 phase so my installation “extras” were not $7 they have quoted an extra $1400.00. This in part is because the suppliers are still using the Gateway 1 instead of the more 3 phase friendly Gateway 2 … but that’s a story for another day)
Note: The Gateway 2, according to my Tesla contact is about $1000 more than the Gateway 1, so find an installer with Gateway 1’s still in stock to keep your purchasing price down. Gateway 1 is fine for single phase. Tesla now only sells Gateway 2 which explains why the battery package is more expensive and is the reason for the majority of their previous price increase.
The VPP plans and conditions are evolving so even the Simply Energy VPP (SE) plan has changed in the past month. It was $3.49 paid to you each day over 4 years up to the same max amount of $5100.00 with 31 cents per kWh, but has recently changed to the 2 year rebate payback as above.
This means you can get your $5100.00 in just 2 years then quit the VPP and join any plan you wish.
I spoke to Tesla about the differences in the SE VPP plan and their own new VPP plan (which is so far off the money I find it hard to understand why Tesla have even considered that it would be embraced ***) and the sales person was not even aware of the SE VPP plan at all. As it appears, no one else is either. The Tesla person was looking at the SE plan for the first time, online, as a result of me telling him about it whilst I was on the phone.
As we know Free Lunches can be expensive but the SE VPP plan is generous, they can steal only 400 kWh from your battery per year (about the annual consumption of a small to medium fridge/freezer) and yet still pay you the 15 cents for each kW they take as compensation, the same as if you exported it. SE does not care if you have more than 10 kW on your roof either whereas the likes of Origin would drop your FIT from 18c to 10c if you did. (Buy the Whey, Amaysim will only give you 22c FIT if your have 8 kW or less on your roof. so you can’t milk it)
My calculations suggest my colleague will save around $400 to $500 per year by adding the battery meaning his payback for the $1906 out of pocket is less than 4 years.
In fact most people who have around 5 to 6 kWs on the roof could only hope to save $400 to $500 by adding a battery so Tesla’s $7K to $8K VPP plan is un-affordable (payback 15 years plus).
A consideration that may sway some of you in favour of a battery is the almost inevitable TOU (time of use) billing that will occur in SA at some time in the nearer future, when smart meters are a plenty. Expect 59c per kWh peak between 2pm and 8pm, then some really generous off peak prices. The Tesla as with many other home batteries, is smart enough to take advantage of these price increases and perform their best for you. However, it is a bit like the wife saying to her husband “I saved you $100 today because the $300 dress I bought was on sale with a 33% discount” He’s still out of pocket $200. To explain, (ironically) I mean the only way many people will start to save with a battery is if the price per kWh due to TOU increases.
Caution: If you wait until TOU comes into effect and everyone wants a battery all of a sudden, then market forces typically make supply short and prices higher.
Inversely, more players could appear,, to capture some of the anticipated market, as it did/does with the solar panel market, to bring prices down.
But: It will be a long time coming to get a battery installed for only $1906.00 out of pocket, if some or all of the subsidies disappear. ($6000 SA Govt HB Scheme and $5100 SE VPP) totally $11,100.00.
Really helpful analysis all round… would be great to have comparison with the AGL VPP deal as well so we can compare apples with oranges or whatever.
Thanks Grant. No fruity comparisons are possible, the VPP’s have more of a Chalkie/Cheesy taste. In other words the Simply Energy VPP is so far in front of Tesla Energy Locals and AGL’s VPP, they “simply” can not be compared and certainly should not be considered.
Hi Folks, am I missing something or has this SE Energy deal changed? On their website today the net cost of a Tesla PW2 after both the SA govt 6k and SE Energy VPP 5.1k is $4899, not less than $2000. Any thoughts?
Thanks Mark. I have been searching hi and low to find a circumstance where a typical family really might be able to make a saving on a battery. And this was a plan I was not aware and and does seem to be the best plan I have ever seen and something that one 1st pass might get closer to a payback. So if anyone in Australia is really going to make a saving on a battery, this plan might be it based on what you say and if there are no other caveats and you can get a PW2 installed at the price your friend got it.
So interested to run the numbers to see what I come up with. Note it sounds like your friend might be in a unique position where they have somehow been able to pick up the PW2 for well below average installation and with the old gateway which has given them a significant saving that I suspect won’t apply to most people?? So I have run the numbers on what I assume is a more realistic set of assumptions?
Would I be right in assuming not many people will be installed for only $7006 by the time you factor in more typical install costs of $1400 + by the sound of it you will almost certainly be jammed $1000 for the gateway 2, as GW1 not available anymore??
(As a side issue, even for 3 phase, unless you want multiple PW2 on different phases I can’t see any reason why you would not go with a gateway 1 and save $1000 if you can still get it. The 1st generation gateway does actually supports 3 phase no problems. All I can see that a gateway 2 allows is for Tesla to support you in adding multiple PW2 on different phases so if that is not important to you, I see little to no benefit in the gateway 2).
Now here is a perfect example of how to get battery economics wrong, and it would be easy to come up with the follow calculations to make this PW2 payback in just under 10 years (based on what you outline, and assume you are going to pay more typical install prices + have to buy the gateway 2 because no-one has the gateway 1) :-
– I am going to assume it is more likely that the purchase price based on what you are saying might be closer to $9400 ($7000 after SA rebate + 1400 for install + $1000 for gateway 2).
– $5100 VPP rebate brings that down to $4300.
– Based on typical utilisation people are getting in real world usage looks to be numbers averaging around 8.3kWh / day from the PW2, which I am going to round down to 8kWh because I am lazy and that is probably a generous estimate once you factor in degradation, backup reserves, the fact that the VPP will take some etc.
Based on those assumptions, lets look at how long it takes to payback that battery :-
– Savings per you is amount saved by shifting solar, minus what you loose when they use your battery for the VPP (where I assume you are likey to be loosing money because it is likely you will be selling power to them at 15c, and then you will likely need to buy that back from them later at 39c, so I recon that is probably costing you about $100 per year…..400kWh / year * 39c import – 400kWh * 15c and rounded up to $100 because I am lazy ).
– if you average 8kWh from the battery from your own usage, then that is a yearly saving of 365 * 8kWh * (39c – forgone solar FIT) = 365 * 8kWh * (39c – 15c / 0.88 for efficiency losses) = $641 / per year.
So looks like $641 – $100 = $541 saving per year, which looks like we have some chance of payback of $4300 before the warranty runs out in 10 years (8 years by my calculations). This is not great ROI, but it is at least some chance of returning your money, and probably much better than anything else I have seen. So well done pointing that out.
EXCEPT unfortunately there is a bit of a logical gap in the above argument that is a common mistake often found in peoples economic justification of batteries. And that is just like your wife “saving $100 by buying a $300 dress”. You should not be counting savings from an expensive electricity plan that you are only on because you brought the battery and has rates that are not competitive. From an article Finn did recently, it sounds like in SA it should be easy to get a tariff of 36c and 16c FiT. And that is what we should compare to if we are to know what the actual likely savings on our bill are likely to be (comparing no battery to battery). This looks like :-
– if you average 8kWh from the battery from your own usage, then that is a yearly saving of 365 * 8kWh * (36c – forgone solar FIT) = 365 * 8kWh * (36c – 16c / 0.88 for efficiency losses) = $520 / per year.
So looks like $520 – $100 = $420 saving per year, which unfortunately puts us back payback looking more likely to be taking the whole 10 years which to me seems a petty ordinary ROI for a risky investment requiring up front payment (but a payback none the less which is a significant milestone).
Now of course, if you have a large solar system and high usage with the exact right usage patterns, some people might get a little more savings than this because of higher utilisation of the battery. But I suspect the higher usage tariffs might hurt you more for the power you import than the benefit of the extra battery utilisation. But a lot of people will not even have the usage to do even this well, and their mileage will be less. And of course, if you are in the lucky position to get a PW2 with practically no installation charge, or save by getting on old gateway or or other deal that reduces the price to $2K, then now you are definitely in the territory to where I suspect most people can save money and get a reasonable return. But that sounds like it might be a corner case. Even then I still feel sorry for the tax payer who bears the biggest burden of the subsidy without any immediate benefit (though I assume there will be a benefit down the track for everyone in pre building the infrastructure needed in the future to make the RE transition if we assume our politicians did this for sensible reasons).
And of course, if you want a PW2 anyway, I suspect this might be a very good deal, especially if you leave after 2 years if they don’t offer you something more attractive.
Anyway, it is all too common, that even with LARGE subsidies, and deal that look good at 1st pass, can quickly evaporate once you get to the devil in the detail.
Just attend a Tindo event tonight, and the guys from Simply energy clarified this for me. The 400 kWh per year is not referring to what they take out of the battery, but rather what they put into it from the grid.
Taken from their T&C’s
“You agree, that if we draw electricity to your battery facility from the national electricity grid or your distributor’s distribution network that electricity will form part of your electricity usage for the purposes of the calculation of your charges. We agree that the total of these draws of electricity during each year of your fixed benefit period will not exceed 400 kWh”.
They can actually take what they want from the battery at anytime, but it is only cost effective obviously when the spot price is over $160/Mwh ($0.16/kwh).
So does that mean in theory on a whole bunch of sunny days in summer (all year around), in the evening in the typical “peak period”, they could discharge your probably full battery, pay you 15c for the electricity they provide, and then later in the night you have to import from the grid to get you through the night at 39c that might have otherwise been covered by the battery if the VPP had not taken it earlier?? And to add insult to injury, they are not limited in how much they can do that by the 400kWh limit?? Am I understanding it correctly the 400kWh limit only applies if they precharge your battery from the grid to prepare for a “peak event”, which I assume they will only rarely needed to do especially if they are free to just take whatever the solar has put in without any restrictions???
I hope it is better than that, because otherwise you have effectively written them a blank check, and how good or bad it is, is totally beyond your control. I guess at one extreme, you do get a battery with a $5000 discount, but you might get little or no other benefit from your battery because the VPP grabs most of the power before you can use it at least for the 1st 2 years. I guess if they are pumping your battery this much, you can always fall back to the “leave” option after 2 years with hopefully a battery with close 80% of its warranty and a $5k discount for the 20% they have taken?? And it is very likely they they will not use it that much.
Is anyone on the Simple Energy VPP and can see how much power they are actually taking?? Has anyone seen what that answer is for mid summer (or to a lesser extent mid winter) where I assume demand will be greatest. Is it easy to see how many kWh is actually taken by the VPP, or is that number really only hidden the solar export?
But Amaysim is not available in SA or at least that’s what the website says. Best feet in tariff I can find is AGL at 14.2 . Energy locals are at 16c but the monthly subscription on top of daily charge makes it expensive.
Yes, that is weird. Amaysim is available in SA but their site is defective. I’ve told them this once, so I’ll tell them again and see if they fix it this time.
Thanks Melanie Amaysim is available in SA but as I understand not with gas as well. And as Ronald suggests, their site is their biggest enemy … very difficult to find the correct information.I gave in and rang them, and received the answers I was looking for straight away.
Thanks Ron you have prepared a thorough analysis as always.
But of course the devil is in the detail, and in this case your projected outcomes are predicated on today’s prices remaining static in your system ROI calculations.
If you create a trend line in Excel of power price increase looking back 15 years from today (2004 – 2019) then project that line (4th order polynomial would be the good choice) through to 15 years hence (2034) and there is no logical argument around to suggest it won’t be at least this; then your calculations look overly optimistic.
Lawrence Coomber
Title: THE TESLA POWERWALL 2 PAYBACK CAN BE LESS THAN 4 YEARS.
Thanks Matthew. I’ll try and address some or most of your questions in brief, mainly because I am not a bloggy type person so this is somewhat foreign to me. It’s just that my colleague had sent me the link to some of Ronald’s posts and I thought that I had really better contribute since everyone seems to have the best interests and a portion of hope as well, that batteries will be affordable with a suitable ROI.
Fact: they are.
I meant to title my original contribution in bold with just that. However, they are only affordable with the massive SA Govt and SImply Energy VPP plans in SA. I was just so surprised that nobody had mentioned this particular VPP plan.
Firstly, you can get a PW2 installed for around $7K.
ERS (Sharpe) were selling them for that price in July and my colleague’s and mine (his already installed) are from another provider found on the Simply Energy site. They were $6999 which also includes installation give or take extra work that may or may not need to be done. Again, my colleague needed only to pay and extra $7. His install price of $7006 included the Type A RCD’s. The fully installed price is the cost of hardware, (the Powerwall 2 and the Gateway 1) and includes the technician’s (contractors) installation fee which is probably around $1500. You will only pay more than $7K if your particular installation requires it.
Why are the Powerwalls sometimes so cheap from various providers?
Inside knowledge, although pretty obvious. It seems that almost everyone miscalculated the amount of sales (lack of) for batteries after the SA Govt HB Scheme was announced. Many providers had signed up to significant quantities of batteries, (one provider told me they had signed up to 220 PW’s this year) and if they don’t sell their existing stock they can’t pay for the incoming stock for the next quarter..
Is there a valid ROI?. Yes.
This is not a criticism of others but it pays to make calculations based on actual usage as opposed to assumptions wherever possible. I have been recording information daily for nearly 4 years from my solar system. (except in rare cases when I have been away for a few days … then I average)
A simple spread sheet gives you the answer.
Record/collate the solar generation for your panels for a year (or hopefully grab it from the inverter WiFi data) Check your bills and total the imported kWh’s. Same with the amount exported. Although important, knowing your actual consumption (Import plus the balance between Generation and Export) is not critical in the calculation at this time. Neither is the daily supply charge. You are really only interested in reducing (or eliminating) your import costs. That’s all a battery will do anyway.
The import amount is firstly significant. I state the obvious but if you paid for 6000 kWh’s in the year then when you add a battery you will no longer be paying for that amount. If you know your generation and it was 8000 kW (average around 22 kW per day for a 5 to 6 kW solar system), and you know that for around 305 days a year you will be able to wholly or at least very reasonably charge the battery. (As a result of my painful 4 year daily records, I have identified 45 to 60 days per year when you will not be able to fully charge a 13.5 kWh battery due to cloud cover etc.)
To be even more accurate, use Ronald’s analysis that it takes 1.2 kW to store 1 kW in the battery due to loss. You can soon calculate with a spreadsheet how much you can reduce the 6000 kW’s you previously imported. My information suggests that above case would pump around 10 kW into the battery on average, per day, but using your (Matthew’s) example of 8 kW per day that would be 2920 kW’s no longer imported. Lets say 3000 kWs. Therefore you would only pay for 3K with a battery. So you would save 3000 x 39 cents (add any amount into the spreadsheet so that it suits your current energy plan)
3000 x .39 = $1170.00 less 3000 x 15 cents FIT ( $450) that you would have got for that which found it’s way into the battery that would otherwise have been exported.
$1170 less $450 is $750. Allow for loss and the VPP stealing 400 kW’s per year and you will arrive at $400 to $500 annual saving. This was also Mathew’s conclusion.
A 4 year payback with an out of pocket amount of around $1900. Remember that the $1900 is not speculation it is a real life installed example based on $13000 for the Tesla less $6000 SA Govt HBS and $5100 SE VPP 2 year rebate.
Powerwalls are very very smart. They can save you in many ways. Not just the way they learn your usage activity, or future Time Of Use monitoring, but also if for example, you are running 3 kW worth of appliances during daytime and your panels due to cloud, were only generating 1 kW at that time then the battery would supply the difference, and you have the afternoon of day light with hopefully less cloud to charge up again. So the battery doesn’t just get used at night.
In the case of 3 phase with a Gateway 1, they can actually take power from the grid on a phase that does not have the Powerwall on it and then get the battery to export the same amount back to the grid with $0 paid. Hard to get ones head around, I know. But it’s true.
Gateway 1 or 2?.
2 is way smarter than 1 and although probably not worth the extra $1000 it is preferred. For 3 phase it is a must. The reason why my installation quote was and extra $1400 (instead of just $7 for my colleague on single phase) was because that is what it costs to make a G1 work with 3 phase. It will work great but they need to convert it to work on 3 phase and it costs extra to move your chosen circuits over to the phase that the PW will be on for back up (power outage) purposes.
I raised that with my supplier today and said if that’s the case how much does it cost to get a G2 instead. I assumed that since the G2 is more 3 phase friendly it will save heaps on much of the the no longer required conversion, and therefore shouldn’t be too many $$$ more. I was right, in fact today they think it will be less than the $1400 extra quoted and yet now includes the G2.(remember according to my conversation direct with Tesla, the G2 is $1000 more than the G1) I was satisfied. For less than the same money I am getting a superior gateway. So I am expecting just a tad over $8000 fully installed with a shiny new Gateway 2.
Matthew wrote: ” I am going to assume it is more likely that the purchase price based on what you are saying might be closer to $9400 ($7000 after SA rebate + 1400 for install + $1000 for gateway 2).”
Nope: not $10,400, with G2. just around $8000
In other words as I found out today, a G1 plus conversion to work with 3 phase actually costs more than installing a G2 in it’s place.
Matthew wrote: “Anyway, it is all too common, that even with LARGE subsidies, and deal that look good at 1st pass, can quickly evaporate once you get to the devil in the detail.”
Not so.
Single phase with Gateway 1 is $1900 plus maybe some extras, around 4 years payback. OR,
3 phase with Gateway 2 is around $8000 plus maybe some extras, around 3.64 years payback (well in my case anyway because I am soon to have 15 kW on the roof).
Exiting a VPP after the 2 years rebate has been completed and chasing a better plan with a better FIT (if still available in 2 years that is) will provide a quicker return.
I would expect that VPP’s would offer serious incentives to customers to stick with the program in the near future.
The formula.
Don’t pay more than $7K for the battery after the SA Govt subsidy, join the SE VPP, get as many panels as you can afford and change plans after 2 years.
No doubt if you can get PW2 install for $7K after SA subsidy, and the VPP will offer you $5K, and thus get the price down to effectively $2K out of your pocket, then is is NO DOUBT going to make it much easy to recoup that over a reasonable number of years. Depending on usage, and on the prices outline above, I would expect typical savings for people to be somewhere in the range $200 – $500 of real savings a year depending on usage (some people don’t use enough power outside solar hours) based on numbers outlined. So at the top end it is certainly an attractive looking ROI, and on the bottom end you are still likely to at least get the money returned. But you also have some blackout protection + helping with the development of the grid and services of the future, and have some cool new tech.
So at those prices, there is no doubt I recon for a lot of people including me it is a pretty attractive offer. But beware of the “extras” that comes later in the sales/install process that might rapidly erode that. If you $2k battery suddenly becomes $4k after paying the gateway and install charges, then it rapidly becomes more marginal. Beware of the “quote” which you calculate at $2k, and then becomes $3k because of needing to upgrade you to G2, and then the “mateeee….install on the day was more difficult than we thought, so we are going to need to charge you extra $1500 for install which they would have know about if they had quoted you properly. Suddenly your $2k PW gets closer to the $5k and harder to get that return.
As a side issue the whole “G1 plus conversion to work with 3 phase” that sounds a bit suspicious that someone is bull@#$%ing you, unless Tesla have made changes to the G1 since they released the G2 which is unlikely???? Certainly there was no conversion required for a G1 in the past for 3 phase. You did need a couple of extra CT clamps, and a little extra wiring to the gateway to support that, but the G2 is no different in this regard. As for moving circuits to connect to the one you want to backup, I can’t see any reason there would be any difference between the G1 and G2. Further to that, I am not aware of any extra “smarts” that the G2 has that the G1 can’t do (except for allowing you officially support multiple PW2 on DIFFERENT phases). You could always have multiple PW2, they just needed to be on the same phase (if distributor rules allowed it which they often didn’t so for me the G2 is more about allowing Tesla to sell and install more PW2, so it is galling that they now want to charge us considerably more for that and I suspect that this is just cover to effectively raise the battery price in an environment when the batteries are getting cheaper). G1 and G2 both support being able to net usage to zero across 3 phases. Again, there are bucket loads of people out there being installed for a couple of years with G1 and 3 phase and no issues.
3 phase installs are likely to be slightly more expensive, as you now have a few more cables to install to get the voltage from the other 2 phases, and extra CT clamps for the other 2 phases. But this is EXACTLY the same for G1 and G2. But I suspect they are confusing some of these things with the pros and cons of G1 vs G2.
As I understand it the only advantage of G2 is :-
– it does now support multiple PW2 on multiple phases which G1 did not (still blackout protection only on 1 phase, so in blackout the extra PW2 on these phases and the solar on them will be sitting idle doing nothing).
– prettier box.
– the changed the energy monitor from a 3rd party sourced one, to their own. There has been speculation that might be a little more powerful. What this means to an end user is a little unknown as there does not seem to be any additional functionality (except what I outline above). But I speculate that maybe it samples more frequently and so is a little better and always keeping supply and demand matched to reduce the little phantom imports and exports that will always be happening (it is not uncommon for people to see about half a kWh a day were they think in theory the PW2 should have covered it). PW2 will always be lagging slightly as it can only respond to changes. But the fast you can do it, the better the supply/demand match.
Beyond what is outline above, I am not aware of any extra “smarts” of the G2. But if anyone has any documentation to show what I am missing, I would love to be educated.
But if you can get PW2 installed for $2k after the rebates or even $3k to cover 3 phase, I recon I would be grabbing it before that disappears. But be careful of price creep and make sure you have a solid “fixed price” quote.
Your “formula” advice to me looks spot on to me.
I think your 100% right about Tesla alienating their customers by not mentioning the instal costs. Another sign that the powerwall is not there economically yet and why I will be buying my own lithium batteries and installing them myself or paying a few hundred for someone to help me.
Jedics if you do that I recommend that you make sure that you engage a CEC licenced electrician or RE engineer with certificated formal qualifications in “Safe Handling of Low Voltage [LV] Storage Battery Stacks” plus CEC Storage Endorsement. And let him/her do the job without your help.
Lawrence Coomber
I did a few sums on this today, and Tesla on the ‘phone say they tend to draw on the battery around 100 days a year currently (but of course this can change), so try to factor this in.
For my system, 10kw solar and 3-phase, I’m thinking between 4 and 7-year payback, but based on quite a few assumptions (such as not paying to replace the energy they take?).
I’m off to compare the SE VPP prices – thanks for the heads-up on that.
What would be really, really, really good is an APP where you could plug all this in and get some better idea of payback…!!!
Just spoke to Simply Energy VPP team too, they send a list of 7 approved installers to get quotes from, so you can choose installer and battery options (not like Tesla).
They pay you for any energy they draw at 15c/KWH and have tended to draw 3-5 times a month at varying durations – mostly over the summer when we all have our A/C on. Future draw-down is entirely down to what the grid needs to stabilise it. You may get the $7/day for quite a bit longer (the balance of 3 years left after you sign up less the time to get connected etc.) which seems pretty fair.
I just had a quote from Tesla for their VPP Energy Plan. As per previous comments, the quote was $7,100 fully installed and an energy rate of 31.1c per KWh which is good. The gotcha was that I have a 3 phase inverter (because I have a 3-phase A/C unit). Tesla said they would not pay any feed-in-Tarif ($0 !!) on 3-phase systems saying it was a limitation imposed on them by SA Power Networks. They tried to account for this by saying that I won’t be paying a daily charge so I will still be better off. Seems rubbish to me but beware of this if you have 3-phase.
Hi Brian, if you are still looking for a Powerwall 2 with a Backup Gateway 2 it may be worth your while having a chat with Martina at Solar Power Direct.
Her quoted me $5499 fully installed if you sign up to the Tesla Energy Plan, Given the PW2 and Gateway is $3499 under the Tesla energy plan, that makes it $2000 for installation. Tesla’s over the phone “quote” was “about $6100 – $6200 for a standard install”.
Both installed prices are after deducting the SA Govt HB subsidy (of $6000 under this Tesla deal regardless of whether you are eligible for the SA Govt energy concession or not).
I also have 3 phase. Tesla did not mention anything about no FIT being on 3 phase, nor did SAPN mention anything about restrictions on Tesla when I spoke with them about 3 being on phase, FITs, PW and the Tesla energy plan.
Based on my conversations and email exchanges with Tesla, I’d suggest taking what they say with a (large) grain of salt. For example, they told me that only certain brands of solar inverters would work with PW for battery backup capability during grid outages. I queried this with Solar Power Direct who told me that their installed base includes PWs connected to systems with other brands of inverters that have not had any problems providing backup during grid outages.
Just be aware that the talk of solar inverter compatibility with PW2 in a blackout misses the important point. If you have a 3 phase solar grid tied inverter, it will not work with the PW2 in a blackout no matter what the brand. This is nothing to do with model or brand, and all to do with AS4777 rules for 3 phase inverters. Under the rules, they must shutdown on phase in-balance. So in a blackout, PW2 will only keep one phase up, so solar inverter will shutdown.
“If you have a 3 phase solar grid tied inverter, it will not work with the PW2 in a blackout no matter what the brand.”
Am I correct that:
1) it is quite usual to have solar system with a single phase inverter connected to the PW as it supports single phase only and, with this setup, the solar system will be able to charge the PW during a blackout ? and also that
2) the PW will (for a property with 3 phase power) be set up to monitor all 3 phases so it can disconnect all 3 phases from the grid when a blackout occurs, and so allowing it to safely provide backup power (on one phase) to the house as well as be (able to be) charged by the solar system if it generates more power than is being consumed ?
Hi S Lim,
In answer to your questions :-
1. Yes, as far as I know, all single phase solar inverters if ever approved for sale in Australia should want with a PW2. The only mandatory requirement is that they must shutdown when the frequency is raised, which has always been a requirement under AS4777 for grid connect solar in Australia.
2. Answer to 2 is probably “yes and no”, with different answers depending on a solar setup. The short version is that as I said, if you have 3 phase solar inverter, there is NO WAY it can run in a blackout ever with a powerwall 2. If your installer tells you anything else it almost certainly means they have no idea what they are talking about until AS4777 rules change and a manuafacturer decides it is a priority to build a completely different device to enable this sort of thing to be possible (but I would not hold your breath for this happening any time soon). If it is single phase solar inverter it can run in a blackout with a PW2 and even charge the PW2 is there is enough spare power. If you have a new micro system, AS4777.2.2015 rules might make it difficult to run, unless you get a very specific profile on them that might or might not break the rules of AS4777. Ironically if you have an older pre AS4777.2.2015 micro system, there is a reasonable chance it will work with a PW2 in a blackout because the “extra functionality” is not in there to shutdown all phases on phase in-balance as long as noone has updated your grid profile which could happen automatically without you knowing. I have with enormous difficulty got such a profile on newer Enphase micros to allow them to work in a blackout with a PW2, but to this day I have no idea if that is a “dodgy profile” that breaks AS4777.2.2015 or whether it is endorsed for use on a battery setup because this circumvents this issue AS4777.2.2015 rules were setup to address.
If you want a more detailed answer, keep reading. For context, you 1st need to understand a few things :-
a) Don’t over think 3 phase connections. Best for a home owner to think of them as 3 individual connections (or phases) to the property. Sure, it is a little more than that in that each phase is 120 degree out of “phase” and that has some unique properties when you are using true “3 phase” loads, but I suspect most peoples loads they are talking about are only single phase.
b) just because you have a house with 3 phase, does not mean you have any true 3 phase loads. And it does not mean you have to have a 3 phase solar inverter, or battery inverter. So 1 or more single phase solar inverters will work fine and are commonly user. Same goes for batteries, and single phase batteries like the PW2 can work fine, and even offset loads against all 3 phases (logically at the meter from a billing point of view, but not physically from an electrical point of view).
c) Powerwall 2 is only a single phase device, and can only be connect to 1 phase.
d) there is no way a single phase generator can supply load to another phase.
e) HOWEVER, while c) above is true from an electrical point of view, from a billing point of view it is different. And if 1 phase is exporting 2 kW, and the other phases are exporting 1 kW the meter will “net that out” to 0 kW.
A PW2 install is always going to be 2 components. The actual PW2 which is just a battery with a fat wire to connect to your home to supply loads and draw power to recharge, and a control wire so that the brains which is in the “Gateway” box can tell it when to charge and when to discharge and how much to do of that at any 1 time. The “Gateway” is where it all happens and is made up of 2 seperate bits :-
1. Connectors to connect the grid supply on the phase the PW2 is connected to, the house loads on the other side on that phase, as well as the PW2.
2. a things commonly called an ATS or Automatic Transfer Switch, whose job it is to isolate the house in a blackout on the phase the PW2 is connected to so it can contrinue to supply the house in a blackout, and
3. the “brains” that control the PW2. Amoungst other things this function monitors the flow of power too and from the grid. In a single phase setup, all it does is monitor the grid connection with a CT clamp, and tries to generate power, or charge the battery to make zero flow to/from the grid.
A 3 phase setup is only marginally more complicated. In this case, in addition to monitoring the “phase” it is connected to, it also has a CT clamps for for the other phases. Using this it tries to net out the 3 phases to zero, which will result in zero import/export on the meter. eg if at night you are using 1kW on each phase, the PW2 will see than and generate 3kW to offset all of that. It is only physically connected to 1 phase and can only generate on that 1 phase, so what we end up is 2kW being exported on the PW2 phase (1kW is used in the house), and this 2kW offset the 2kW total being used on the other 2 phases. So as you can see, on this level, from a billing point of view (which is the thing people are usually most concerned above), the PW2 does support 3 phase, even that it is only connected to and produce power on 1 phase.
Now it should be noted that that PW2 and gateway is only REALLY connect to 1 phase, and can only isolate 1 phase (at least this is true for the gateway 1..it might be a little bit different for a gateway 2, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am pretty sure it would work exactly the same way). Ok, this is not 100% for a 3 phase install, but close enough for the purpose of this explanation (if you want the irrelevant detail, gateway has s small wire connecting to the other phases, but this is NOT to supply power, and is only there to measure voltage which is needed for the CT clamp to be able to accurately measure power).
So now consider the blackout question. Based on the above the PW2 gateway can only isolate the phase that the PW2 is connected to, because the other phases do not have that sort of connection. But in fact the gateway only needs to isolate the phase that the PW2 is on to make an isolated micro grid. There is no need to isolate the other phases, as in a blackout they are going to be down anyway, and any solar inverter on that phase must shut itself down in those conditions anyway. So now we have a house that thinks 1 phase is up (backed up by the powerwall), and 2 phases that are down because of the blackout. Now lets consider what happens with solar in this case. If you have 3 phase solar inverter, it will see 1 phase is up, and 2 phases down. In Australia AS4777 rules say that 3 phase inverters must output the same on all phases. So these inverters will NEVER work in a blackout with a powerwall 2 (or any other single phase battery setup). HOWEVER if you have a single phase solar inverter on the phase that is backed up, it will see the microgrid the PW2 has created as a grid and will be able to generate power, and potentially supply loads and even recharge the PW2 in a blackout if it is wire correctly.
Does this answer the question?
Thanks for the response. Funny that you should mention Martina from Solar Power Direct as I have just signed with them to install a Telstra Powerwall 2 with the same quote. I actually need to spend an additional $400 for some specific installation costs that I have. This seems to be the best deal that I have come across and the electrician who visited my home for the pre-install check seemed very professional and helpful.
Tesla have since changed their tune regard the FIT on 3-phase and have now agreed to pay it. Not sure if they were just trying to avoid it in the first instance or it was a mistake.
Brian.
That’s very reassuring as I’ve also decided to sign with them. Yes, I agree their price for the PW2 appears to be the lowest around. I decided to go with them as a friend who purchased his solar system from them was very impressed by their pre and post sale helpfulness and support.
Just curious … what was the additional $400 for ?
The extra $400 was for additional tricky cable runs through our 2 storey roof between the battery and switchboard and for work on the switchboard to put power and lights on the same phase for backup. Seemed reasonable.
I hope the vast majority of that was for the “additional tricky cable runs” as the change “to put power and lights on the same phase for backup” should be a quick and trivial change for someone already onsite installing the battery. Unfortunately I have seen installers who use it as an excuse to charge lots of money for not much work because for a lot of punters it sounds more difficult than it is.
Again, clearly many of the commentators on here haven’t done many of these installs. Lets say for example that you are putting 5 power circuits on backup and 2 light circuits. At a minimum this would mean supplying 7 new Type A RCDs ($35 each) – bringing cost of materials to $245. You would also reasonably expect the electrician to charge for his time to swap these out – lets say its an hour to do that at $80. That’s $325 just to change the breakers, let alone the cable run! $400 seems completely reasonable.
Why not use existing RCDs? Is a Type A specifically required because of some standard somewhere because it is a battery inverter install, and if so what is that standard? Is an install done without type A RCDs not done to specification?
I guess if RCDs need to be replaced with type A RCD for some regulatory requirement, then that would add to the costs a little as you outline.
It’s in the Tesla install guidelines you need to use type a rcds for any backed up circuits as there is a risk of dc injection. Not just Tesla that stipulates this also in AS3000. As I said above, there are lots of things to consider when installing a battery system, particularly if you are install backup, that can Make what seems like a standard install, very expensive. Unless you’ve done a lot of install’s yourself best you keep the criticisms of what installers charge to yourself as It just sets false expectations about how much it costs.
Got a written quote from Solarworx for $7,800 fully installed for a
TESLA Powerwall Backup Gateway 2
Has anyone got a better quote ?
If i go with the SE VPP out of pocket after 2 years is $2700 – almost worth it
The discussion and comments in this post are very helpful. It seems pretty clear though, that for many ‘end-users’, especially those with an existing low overall consumption such as couples without children, pensioners, singles etc, it’s unlikely that a battery will be worthwhile for them, unless its heavily subsidized.
At the moment, an overall economic outlook that – at best – is ‘problematic’, along with leading indicators such as new vehicle and consumer retail sales either trending downwards or stagnant, drops in building and construction activity and mortgage repayment stress – doesn’t engender optimism regarding future levels of ‘solar PV + battery’ sales.
The average punter can go a very long way towards reducing their household electricity bills with a non-battery solar PV system and through easily made changes in their electricity consumption patterns. That raises the question – do you really need to potentially hugely complicate things for only marginal benefits?.
I’m not against ‘batteries’, but I’m suggesting that it would be unwise to expect a fully fledged, enduring, and mature ‘battery boom’ to burst upon the scene anytime soon.
A complicating factor is that some 25-30% of the population still seem convinced that ‘climate change’ either doesn’t exist at all, or are uncertain about it, so there’s no real need for anything other than ‘business as usual’.
There’s a lot of ‘static’ around the whole issue.
Well done David. I am glad someone else has posted a great quote for a Tesla as these deals are definitely out there, It appeared as though, I was not to be believed. In my posts above I wrote how my colleague had his Tesla (with Gateway 1, single phase, installed in the Hectorville area SA with the $6000.00 SA Govt home battery subsidy) for around $7006.00 and after the Simply Energy VPP worth $5100.00, he will be only $1906.00 out of pocket. Mine was installed for around $7776.00 with Gateway 2 (Golden Grove SA area, 3 phase and extra switchboard work required) and after the SE VPP, I will be $2676.00 out of pocket, which given the performance of the Powerwall since installation 29 days ago (well above my expectations as I have imported only 28.6 kilowatts in that time or 0.99 kW per day for a 6 person household) it suggests that is was a good decision … mind you I do have just over 18 kW on the roof.
However, I feel the best deal around at the moment, is the 6.6kW of JInko 330 watt mono perc panels and a 13 kW (usable 12 kW) Growatt battery package and all included at only $4990.00, installed. Unbelievable value and especially since there is no VPP involved to get this price. Had this deal been around (or at least if I had known about it) when I signed up, I would have not purchased the Tesla.
I don’t think you can compare a Growatt with a Tesla. Tesla’s technology is much more advanced IMHO. Personally I would not be comfortable with a Growatt battery on my house. I’d happily pay the premium for a Tesla (or Sonnen or LG). I’m very wary of budget battery brands at the moment.
Finn, firstly since I have a Tesla Powerwall 2/Gateway 2 and given that I am very happy with it’s performance, (even though I have not read or seen any Growatt reviews) I accept that it (the Tesla) is as you say, more advanced.
But I am not sure that it is worth the premium, in much the same way as Ronald thinks the Telsa EV is not worth the premium (to us Plebs at least) no matter how good a vehicle it is.
And secondly however, I ‘am’ comparing the 2, but not just on the advanced status, but based on price and quality, and ROI. And even noting that my Tesla is more advanced and that in no way would I expect the Growatt to be able to perform in the same way with the same features, the price is such that I would, even with my current knowledge, have chosen the Growatt solution, had I have known about it.
I have now recommended the Growatt battery to my next door neighbor (who has ordered one), my eldest son (about to order one), two of my oldest friends and even my ex-wife.
A huge mistake that so many make, including commentators, is to look at the future in terms of today’s technology.
It will not be too long before we will be having a good chuckle when we look at our Teslas and Sonnens and Growatts etc., on the wall , in the same way that we look at the size of the batteries that powered our early mobiles or photo’s of the old CRT computer monitors that were so common on our work desks,
Nowadays, we should look at our current solar panels and batteries as disposable and to make any purchase an informed one, whilst accepting that we are amidst a time of rapidly changing technology. We should choose that which gives us not just a fast payback, but a positive return within 2.5 years maximum, or don’t buy it, since the current technology will be obsolete well within the warranty period, in fact likely within just 5 years.
But most importantly, time is not on our side. SAPN’s forecast in black and white for all to see is the prospect of ZERO exports. Furthermore, reading TS129 already reveals the current restrictions and the requirement for export limiters. So I say “step right up and get your panels and batteries today before it’s too late” and before the next technical standards impose even more restrictions.
So for those readers still not sure what to do, I recommend that you get your homework done including get the quotes from this Solar Quotes site ASAP and if you are in a position to do so, act as soon as you can.
Hello I’ve seen some comments in this thread saying after HB Scheme rebate $6000.00, SE VPP credits of $5100.00 the out of pocket cost is only $1906.00 for a fully installed Powerwall 2 for a single phase home.
But I just looked on the Simply Energy website and it says the lowest out of pocket cost is $4,899 for a powerwall 2?
Is it still possible to get an out of pocket cost of $1906.00 and how do I do it?
https://www.simplyenergy.com.au/energy-solutions/battery-storage/tesla-powerwall-sa
You could expect to pay from $9,999 Upfront which includes the SA Government Home Battery Scheme subsidy and standard installation
Join our Virtual Power Plant (VPP) and you could then be eligible for up to $5,100* VPP Access Credits from Simply Energy
This means after receiving $5,100 in VPP Access Credits you could effectively pay from $4,899 for your battery
Sardo, you do not need to buy a Tesla battery from SE, in fact it does not matter where you get it from (Tesla or otherwise) as long as it is an eligible battery for the HBS which makes it VPP friendly. So shop around. We did and as per my earlier posts I paid $7776 for my Telsa and Gateway 2 installed on a 3 Phase and my colleague paid $7006 installed with Gateway 1 on his single phase. After you take of a further $5100 for the SE VPP credits over 2 years, they are an absolute bargain. We ordered these in July when it seemed that not too many batteries were being sold and I was told by one of the suppliers that they needed to sell some batteries to meet their quarterly order commitments (in other words need to sell heaps so tat they could afford to but the contracted amount for the forthcoming quarter). I admit that we got lucky but I read someone else’s post here a few weeks ago who also was able to achieve a similar price. But, perhaps read my previous post Mark GG Nov 18, where I say:
However, I feel the best deal around at the moment, is the 6.6kW of JInko 330 watt mono perc panels and a 13 kW (usable 12 kW) Growatt battery package and all included at only $4990.00, installed. Unbelievable value and especially since there is no VPP involved to get this price. Had this deal been around (or at least if I had known about it) when I signed up, I would have not purchased the Tesla.
And, to get this price you do not even have to sign up to a VPP.
Hi Mark thanks for the info I already have 10.7kW of panels and the Tesla battery appeals to me because the inverter is built-in and this suits my installation location. I shopped around and AGL have quoted $5499 (after HBS) for a PW2 or $4499 if I join the AGL VPP for 5 years. But AGL said it was ok to go with any retailer if I paid the $5499 and didn’t join the AGL VPP. So I could get AGL to install the battery and then join the Simply Energy VPP for $5.1k credits resulting in a final out of pocket cost of just $399? Does that sound right?? Maybe I am better off not joining a VPP at all…
Ok I just looked closer at the Simply Energy VPP terms and AGL isn’t one of their approved installers so getting the battery for $399 isn’t going to happen.
With those who have a PW2 and on VPP, i noted in the T&Cs that the VPP plans will send power back to the battery to top them back up. I assume they pay you the FiT ($0.10 – $0.15) but charge full price (+$0.35) in order to accomplish this.
How has it hit your bottom line? On average, how much power are they putting back into the battery?
Brad, I get my smart meter installed tomorrow which will then enable Simply Energy to fully access the Powerwall 2 as part of the VPP. They can only charge the battery up to 400 kWH per year which is the equivalent of running a small to medium fridge, but if they charge the battery for an anticipated peak demand period and then access the battery for that period, then they pay you the 15 cents FIT for each kWh that they use.
So my calculations are the maximum costs for that part of the VPP activity to the home owner would be around $60.00 per year.
Of larger concern to some at least, is that they can access your battery at anytime to support their VPP back to the grid, whenever they want to (need to) and with no limit. The 2 above scenarios may sound disturbing to those who do not understand what a VPP is all about and who seem to be of the view that the energy companies are just intent on ripping off the customers.
Firstly, having extra battery storage to help support the grid in peak times is good for all, whether it be mass storage or from batteries on our houses. Secondly, and quite frankly mostly what I care about, is that they (Simply Energy at least) pay me $7.00 a day for 2 years, I’ll type that again $7.00 a day, just in case they need to use my battery storage, so basically I don’t give a toss how often they use it, they are paying off my battery very fast for me.
I have had the Tesla installed for 81 days now and have just over 18 kW worth of panels in a 6 person house hold, with 8 fridge.freezers and 6 air conditioners, and 7 TV’s and other stuff you can plug in. After imports and supply charges and exports and battery etc. I have averaged a positive $10.52 per day. Interestingly the battery contributed to the savings/credit component of this $10.52 at an average of just $2.45 per day.
So batteries are OK, not fantastic, just OK, and only worthwhile if someone else e.g. the SA Government and Simply Energy pays for most of it Now $10.52 per day over a 90 quarter is $946.80 CR.
Then in comes Simpy Energy (SE) and in addition to my $10.52 per day they give me an additional $7.00 per day equaling $17.52 CR per day or $1576.80 CR for the quarter. The thing is I can quit the VPP at any time with SE, but one would have to be NUTS to do so. You can’t get anywhere near $7.00 worth of savings per day out of your 13 kWh battery under any sensible non engineered usage scenario, so I say to SE “Go for it” take what you need when you need it, and make profit from it, because you are paying me well for the privilege, helping the grid, and hopefully eventually helping to bring prices down in particular for those not in a position to own any panels or batteries.
Mark well done you have packed a lot into your thoughtful comments, and you have also explained from what perspective you are coming from.
However coming from an engineering and in particular forward looking or visionary engineering perspective on behalf of a community, state and nation, this extract from your comment above:- [“Firstly, having extra battery storage to help support the grid in peak times is good for all, whether it be mass storage or from batteries on our houses”]: is the antithesis of useful community, state and national visionary reticulated power generation science and engineering standards policy.
A modern era reticulated power grid must be designed to be a self-sufficient, highly efficient, reliable and abundant power source for all consumers, businesses and industries, with adequate built in redundancy and self-support mechanisms for all foreseeable circumstances.
And we should expect no less.
But your comment also unfortunately reinforces the very low bar that Australia and Australians in general have set for themselves and aspire to in scientific endeavours as a nation, regarding visionary energy science moving forward.
Say something enough times and it becomes believable and mainstream for many irrespective of its true attributes when thoroughly and expertly examined.
Despite my views though Mark I appreciate your broarder comments.
Lawrence Coomber
I got a quote yesterday for $11200 out of pocket cost for 6.5kw high quality Singapore made solar panels and PW2 Tesla battery on my house currently under construction. This is utilising the Simply Energy $7 per day payment to be on their VPP for 2years. As a single retired person who is home a lot of the time I know that my reverse cycle ducted air con is going to be my biggest expense. I won’t run it more than necessary but envisage winter usage being the big killer especially at night between 5pm and midnight. I was about to run with this but now I’m wondering if Mark has a point recommending going with cheaper Chinese panels and a Growatt battery. It’s important to note that if I got a $4999 system that needed replacing in 10 years I would still be better off financially and would also reap the benefit of better technology at the time of replacement. However I also need to remember that battery rebates in SA won’t be around in 10 years so replacing it might cost a LOT more. I was told by the salesperson that the $11200 system probably would be paid for within 5 years which everyone I’ve told disputes as i possible. I have to make a decision soon to ensure I can access this Simply Energy deal and I’m confused. I’m not fully versed in a lot of this techno speak, I just need advice on which is the smartest option right now. TIA.
I personally would not care much were the solar panels were made as long as you go tier 1 manufacturer with a local office in here Australia so you have a better chance of having someone to stand behind the warranty (or perhaps more importantly higher reputation so they have more at stake to prevent them ruining their future by dumping people with poor quality produces and ruining their reputation). Personally having had multiple failed “cheap” inverters, I suspect it can be worth spending a little more on inverter higher up the food chain. SQ have written extensively with some recommendations on where certain solar and inverter manufactures, so I would consult those charts, and compare the quotes to find something you are comfortable with.
But perhaps more importantly, you should probably make sure you are across the arguments here :-
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/solar-batteries-investment-mb1177/?unapproved=620363&moderation-hash=7f80e91868a5b9aea598dc3c3c35dd25#comment-620363
Bottom line it is the solar that is saving you money, battery not so much so. Sure you are in SA, and if you can find someone to install a battery at a cheap enough price (say $4K or under for something like a PW2), you might have some chance of getting your money back on the battery with the right usage patterns. But I am not sure I would count on any more than that. Get the battery and the solar quoted separately, so you can see how much the battery costs. If you simple like the idea of the battery “just because”, or you value the backup features (assuming you get the right battery), then for sure the subsidy help pay for that. But if doing just for money, and if in doubt, save you money till it makes more sense. Don’t let the subsidy pressure you into a decision. If it does not stake up today, irrespective of it has a subsidy, why buy. There might be a battery subsidy in the pipeline, or price drops to make it irrelevant.
This in addition to my post above. This on line deal from Sunterra looks good:
Solar with Battery Package – 6.6KW Solar with 13kWh Lithium Battery at only $4,990, Fully Installed. *
20x Leapton Mono PERC Half Cell 330W High Efficiency Panels
1x Growatt 5kW Hybrid Inverter
2x Growatt 6.5kWh Lithium Battery
Battery Only Package – AC Coupled 3kW Inverter with 13kWh Lithium Battery at only $2,990, Fully Installed. *
Here’s Sunterra’s review page. It might help make up your mind:
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/installer-review/sunterra/
Be sure to click on “Ausrankings” to check how they compare to other installers.
Further to what Ronald says, price looks good, probably too good. Not sure about the products and capabilities. But a few bits of advice to help you :-
1. I think you might find this helpful :-https://www.solarquotes.com.au/solar101.html?_ga=2.98061279.1181028211.1581480543-165471768.1506381120#panelchart
A few things to note from this :-
– Leapton solar panels are not on Finns list. That does not mean they are no good, and will leave Finn and Ronald to add any value they can. But it probably means they are not widely installed in Australia. I would look to make sure that they are a Tier 1 manufacturer AND they have a local office for warranty support. This is important, as there a lot of fly by night solar installers that are not likely to be about when you need support. But if the manufacturer is in Australia, they are bound by out ACL protections.
– Growwatt is also not on Finns list, so be careful.
2. If I was getting a battery, I would make sure it has good blackout protection and can keep the solar running in a blackout. Not all batteries can and even if they can, your mileage might vary (ie look at failover times, capacity for backup circuits etc). Thought if you can get a reliable and reasonably specked 13kWh battery for $3K installed, you are least have some chance of getting your money back…..but is this solution meeting those conditions??
None of this means that this system might not serve you well, but there are certainly some warning lights flashing.
So for the BOM, it is not surprising that the price is cheap. That and the reputation Ronald has referred you to might be a clue to “you get what you pay for”.
Well it might surprise many of you but I’m going with the $11200 deal. Andy the owner of Adelaide Solar Safe has crunched the figures for me and I’m convinced I can recoup all my costs in 5 years. He estimates that my bills in my new home will total about $2200 per year. My initial outlay will be around the $16000 mark but in two years I will have recouped $5000 from the $7 a day deal from Simply Energy. I have outstanding warranties on the 19 quality panels and the Tesla PW2. He assures me I will have blackout protection as well. I’m 2 storey and not shaded by houses or trees. He used a computer program he has had developed to predict future outcomes and I get a free phone app to monitor my usage daily. I was impressed with his knowledge and commitment to quality products and service. i have checked and double checked the figures and asked a zillion questions. With the SA rebate of $6000 on the battery and further $5000 from Simply Energy it makes it a great deal IMO. I got an alternative quote from Kozco signing up to the Tesla VPP and it was more expensive. So decision made and without a crystal ball I can’t be certain but I’m confident it’s the right decision. My gut feeling is good and that never fails me.
This place is where you’ll find the info on the Tesla VPP. They do compensate you for any grid imports used to charge the battery- you’re not left “out of pocket”. https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/tesla-energy-plan#tesla-energy-plan-powerwall-offer
On the Tesla VPP, the Powerwall 2 and Gateway 2 cost me $6500 installed with all the house circuits backed up. I’ve seen other people say they’ve been quoted $6000 (through Tesla VPP.)
Something to note, the Powerwall 2 uses a mobile network connection as a “backup” connection if your home wifi dies. The Gateway 1 (apparently) operates on the 3G network, whereas the Gateway 2 uses the 4G. With talk of the 3G network shutting down is it really wise to try and save a few dollars?
Update. The Tesla VPP will use a lot of power from your Powerwall and take over your morning solar production diverting it to the grid. Mine’s been active for a couple of weeks and I’ve found each night at around 4-5:30pm they will start maximum discharge from the Powerwall (5kW) to the grid for 1hr. Power also seems to be taken early morning (around 8am) plus the diversion of most of the mornings solar production!? All that is paid for at 10c FIT, unless they happen to grid charge your Powerwall during the night, when you get it subsidised. That hasn’t happened much.
In short, it’s a great scheme if you use a lot of power and rarely have anything sitting in the Powerwall for them to take. The morning solar diversion to the grid (in excess of house demand) and diverting it away from charging the depleted/ unusable Powerwall really makes me mad.
Basically it appears they’re using the stored/ solar power to sell to the grid when the price is favourable. It goes against what they say in their own FAQ:
“How will Tesla manage grid exports?
Your battery and solar system will primarily be used to power your home, with any excess energy not used by your home being used to charge your battery. As part of a Virtual Power Plant, from time to time, excess solar electricity generated by your system will be exported directly to the grid before your battery is 100% charged. This happens when the grid needs energy due to unexpected supply outages. ”
People with the Simply Energy VPP have posted on Whirlpool that they’ve had very little power used. Energy Australia’s VPP scheme clearly lays out how many days and what time period power use can be expected.
I’ve been in contact with Energy Locals and they have confirmed that the usage I’m experiencing is normal operation. I wouldn’t have joined if I’d realised how much they were going to drain the battery. Then there’s the taking over of my solar system power production and diverting the power away from charging the Powerwall in the morning.
My solution has being switching the house power off once the Powerwall is full and operating off grid. I’ve discovered Tesla can apparently remotely reset the Powerwall/ Gateway- that cycles the power to the house when you’re off grid…. That happened 3 times one night within 5 minutes. I also appear to possibly have a charging limit when off grid applied to the system- it’s started limiting off grid charging to 3kW. Previously 5kW (with enough solar) was possible up to 88% SOC. That limit began after I complained to Energy Locals and said I’d been resorting to going off grid.
I’m waiting for the cost to leave the VPP. As well as the above points, the extra “wear and tear” on the Powerwall doesn’t sit well with me.