The balance has tipped in favour of solar in Saudi Arabia.
We’ve mentioned before about the huge movement overseas towards a renewable energy future and this includes the home of one-fifth of the world’s proven oil reserves — Saudi Arabia. For many, Saudi Arabia symbolises opulent oil wealth, a desert kingdom so awash in the black stuff that fortunes are measured in billions not millions.
All presided over by the astute al-Saud clan.
Which brings us neatly to this week’s rant. The latest Saudi Arabia solar power project is part of a massive $US100 billion investment in solar energy which will deliver an estimated 41 GW of renewable energy by 2032. According to this 21/1/2014 SMH article, Saudi company Abdul Latif Jameel has teamed up with Spain’s Fotowatio Renewable Ventures in a three-year venture to build solar power plants worth $US130 million each in the desert kingdom and the Gulf region.
This prompts the question: have the oil sheikhs seen the renewable writing on the wall? Or is there one hell of a peak oil crisis on its way, perhaps a lot earlier than we think?
Of course this is a solar narks’ worst nightmare. After ignoring the breakthroughs in solar storage, as well as the contributions made by Australian universities in key areas such as solar cell efficiency (hats off UNSW), what if one of the main pillars of the fossil fuel industry began to dry up…literally?
For a start the narks would have to adjust their marketing pitch (clenches teeth, holds nostrils and does Tony “The Fossil Fuel Monk” Abbott’s rasping voice: “When the wind doesn’t blow, when the sun doesn’t shine”). How’s peak oil Tone? Had a look at Saudi Arabia lately? “When the oil doesn’t flow etc…”.
Claims about peak oil have been made for many years with estimates as to when oil will cease varying according to the different research findings (occasionally the vested interests backing the research comes into play). Many consider that “peak oil” has already been reached and we are well down the steep slope of the curve heading towards the end faster than a Tony Abbott press conference.
While we appear to have enough oil to last for many decades yet (though again estimates vary) what is usually agreed is that the cost of extraction of oil will rise. This is as more inaccessible reaches of fossil fuel, previously ignored because of cost, are explored. Of course this makes renewable energy such as solar power, even more cost effective in comparison.
The oil-rich (for now) Saudis, with their collective fingers on the nation’s oil balance sheet, may understand this better than most.
However let’s lot be too harsh on the oil sheikhs or our Tone, perhaps the al-Saud royal family has seen the light (you were expecting that weren’t you?) and is investing in the future of, not just the oil-rich country, nor the strife-torn region, but the world. Perhaps some young (any royal under 65 is considered young) prince/princess of the ruling family has knocked on the king’s door, pointed out the massive pollution delivered in oil tankers around the world and and subsequent destruction of the environment and effect on climate change and said this can’t go on.
Sounds familiar? Except with coal replacing oil? On this traditional Australia Day long weekend will someone knock on King Tone’s door and say something similar?
This may all sound a little quaint, even laughable. After all the figures show a vast difference in capacity in solar power between the two nations with Saudi Arabia’s $US100 billion program to deliver 41GW contrasting with Australia’s installed amount of solar amounting to a paltry 3GW.
However is comparing the latest Saudi Arabia solar power project initiatives with Australia so far-fetched? Are we not the “Saudi Arabia of the sun”? On that thought your correspondent, on behalf of SQHQ, wishes all readers a very safe and enjoyable Australia Day weekend. Enjoy or aggrieved by this week’s rant? Please take a moment to comment either here or over at our Facebook Page.
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While not a fan of Tony Abbot particularly, I take exception of people who criticize public figures by innuendo. If you want to make a valuable contribution to the solar argument, you need to do more than sneering “Tony “The Fossil Fuel Monk” Abbott’s rasping voice:” comments, and trot out some verifiable and sound figures of why you think more effort should be put into solar.
Damning with either faint praise or sneer rhetoric is the fallback of the lazy writer.
Thanks Ray, the points you make are fair and have been taken on board.
However the style of writing used is deliberately meant to be tongue-in-cheek and “over-the-top” if you will, in the fine Aussie tradition of being too over bearing is barely enough. Perhaps they point to truths, perhaps not however you can see from previous articles that I take aim at politicians of all stripes not just Tony Abbott or the conservatives.
Thanks though for making some valuable points, as I say these have been noted.
I am sorry since you might have something worthwhile to say but your writing style is too much and I am switching off. Solar nark? I can’t be bothered trying to work it out. Bye
Rich Bowen your defence of ‘in the fine Aussie tradition’ is ignorance. Its a lousy tradition that should not be promoted or prolonged by wits of your ilk. Same goes for ‘rubbishing’ someone because you’re mates. Would you promote as a ‘fine Aussie tradition’ the genocide of the indigenous people, the persecution of gays, the denial of women’s rights etc etc? These and other “fine Aussie traditions’ need to be exorcised from our cultural heritage, not promulgated by the like of you after a cheap laugh billed as ‘tongue in cheek.’ Try thinking ouside the traditional box.
You are too precious.
How about this for no innuendo… Abbott is a complete fool and will do a huge amount of damage to this country before he is removed.
I couldn’t agree more with both points!
solar power or wind power cannot replace BASE power. and the carbon tax is a scam. How much is the carbon footprint of australia compared to countries with huge populations? its not because we are a continent that people to us for greenhouse gases, etc, stop fudging data.
I am so over people not understanding BASE power. This is a furphy introduced by people either making money out of large power plants or others who have not really thought it through.
People don’t give a fig leaf’s chance at a nudist convention about BASE power. What they care about is power when they flick the switch.
If BASE power was we really wanted, we would have huge plants turning out excess power at all times so we would always have enough, but we don’t. Even the fossil fuel power companies aren’t that stupid. In fact they are definitely not that stupid. We can’t afford that much BASE power and we absolutely will not pay for it. So what they give us is enough BASE power to get us through the valleys of demand and a little way up the peaks, but the peaks are supplied by gas turbines and they give us special prices to try and get us to use power when they really would like to switch off their generators, but can’t.
So. we should be building up renewables and using our gas supplies to fill in the peaks in that supply until such time as we have developed storage systems that work.
No difference.
Except.
One is cooking us and one won’t.
By the way “fudging the data” is a phrase used by people who wouldn’t know what data was even when it was tearing out their throat. Anyone who is under the impression that the laws of physics don’t apply just because the fossil fuel industry doesn’t like them, is in for some horrid surprises.
Oil is used for a lot more things than just fuel, e.g. plastics, lubricants. I’d guess they are looking to invest in the future energy delivery systems. If they start manufacturing renewable systems themselves then it’s time to worry.
Peak oil or not, if the Saudis can become leaders and sell the world renewable energy systems, they can still make their money and will keep selling oil for those other non-power related things. Oil will still have a market, and the non burning uses may still be relatively environ friendly or neutral.
Coal based energy providers are the ones that will really need to worry. Oh look, that’s us.
Indeed Saudi Arabia is perfect for solar due to the very high and constant isolation. They also have a rather high demand for daytime air conditioning load and some for desalination both of which lend themselves to daylight use. I’ve worked in the kingdom, Petrol is 9c litre and diesel 6c litre. Electrical power is gas turbine combined cycle which lends itself well to the inconstancy of solar due too rapid response.
Every litre they don’t burn on generation is about 45c of export revenue to them.
Good to see such an insightful post Rich. If we want future generations to have any sort of decent life, we must make the transition to whatever renewable energy sources work best for an area, whether that be solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, wave, etc, etc. asap.
The crazy part for me is that this change is going to give Oz an economic advantage in the post carbon world toward which we are heading. It is going to create much more jobs than our current energy sources do & they are healthier for all concerned.
Our elected reps in parliament need to appreciate that just as the stone age didn’t end because people ran out of stones, so also is the fossil age on the way out.
Oz has the resources to lead the world in this process, or we can dither along with business as usual.
Thanks Anthony, we (Australia) have proved we have the innovative skills and entrepreneurial energy in the renewable sector, now may be the time to push for world leadership in solar energy!
“world leadership”, Australia and renewable in one sentence. Oh come on. It is time you start to think about pot holes, Australia and parking spaces!
Oh we have pot holes alright, they stop us from getting anywhere! We call them “Politicians”.
The post carbon world is so far away, that I doubt my great grandchildren will see it. Anyone who believes it has no real understanding of the economics of energy, and the distribution and sources of Hydrocarbons. The shale age is just starting, and while the code has only been cracked in the US in some of the older fields, the others will happen. Before that peters out, many decades into the future, we will be getting close to,or already have, cracked the hydrate puzzle. A so far untapped source of HC, which is being heavily pursued right now by the Japanese. As for Australia becoming a ‘solar superpower’, I say pipe dream, if only because you cannot yet put it in a box!
I have to disagree. The solar market is driven by undercutting and subsidizes. So the Rich saudis put up some cash toward some solar. Big deal.
I am a qualified A Electrician and I don’t install solar because I have to do a course and then pay more fees. It is just a setup to put up impediments and protection of the existing people in the industry.
When you buy a solar kit, any electrician can install it. We already have the energy auditors who check our work. Why this extra burden? It is so the mates in the government can run businesses that trade unfairly. As usual the corruption goes on and the media just avoid it because the fat cats have to get their cut.
If you buy a solar kit , they all the information on the kit. If any info is missing it could be on the state government body energy regulator websites. It is not like each house is very different. This Stupid Clean energy rubbish stops many electricians from installing solar panels and makes it more expensive so that the 1% can cheat and lie.
In general the sales people for solar are a++holes. They push and search for people who are ignorant and lie to make sales about how much power they can get from the solar panels. I had one customer tell me he thought solar was working at night.
If anything we need more advanced solar power systems to make it worth the installation cost. It should be that the solar system has load shedding and the new houses should have the fridge on a separate circuit so that at least the fridge has power if the mains power is lost. As usual i am not the first to say this and ignored.
Is Abbot a liar and manipulative? Hell yea. Was Rudd fair dinkum and better. hell ya. Though the same bureaucrats are in the government with each party and drive the corrupt behavior just like ” Yes minister”.
Solar grid connect systems in domestic situations are relatively new and as a A grade electrician should know are not straight forward and do require some new concepts to be understood. For example most electricians have little or no experience with relatively high voltage DC. Every state is playing catch up with the regulations changing as new hazards emerge. Ron Sparkie (retired)
As far as I am aware the special course and fees are only for hooking these systems back into the grid. Not for installing home systems. This is how it was explained to me by an electrician friend who was doing said course in NSW.
Yes, Anthony, if only our ‘energy’ companies would see that there is more to energy than fossil fuels they could then contribute to creating the country we know Australia could be.
In 2005, the good people from Desertec calculated that, if you covered an area of desert in the Sahara 300km x 300km with concentrated solar thermal with storage (current technology even in those days) they would have been able to produce as much electricity as the ENTIRE PLANET used that year!!!
300km x 300km is a big area but it doesn’t look so big when you place it on a map of Australia – of course, some people would just rather burn fossil fuels for the rest of whatever (a time that will be considerably shorter for them if the world doesn’t act on climate change)…
so rich Bowden has an invested interest??????????
They know the price of oil is going up up up and want to sell every last drop of it overseas not burn it locally for something a solar array can do better.
Saudi’s push for renewables is largely a response to rapidly growing domestic consumption of oil (which is rising at about 7%p.a.). Work by Paul Stevens from Chatham House in the UK shows that if this continues, Saudi receipts from oil exports will lead to an economic crisis in the oil rich state and could give rise to instability similar to what’s been seen during the ‘Arab spring’. His paper on the need for Saudi energy efficiency can be found here: http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/news/view/193885
Thanks Patrick! Great source material.
Appreciate all your comments folks, thanks. However one of the questions alluded to in the article was whether Australia, with its abundance of sun, could ever become a solar super power. A remote possiblity? Or a pipe dream? I’d be interested in your views and thoughts on this question.
Australian being a super power of solar energy, I don’t think so, Reason: Australians are too blasée and don’t really like to spend that last dollar on something where they will not get a return right away, where as they could spend it on themselves now and enjoy it.
Like myself for instance, I am 65 years old, bugger getting solar energy now just to save a few dollars in the future, I am going to need every dollar I have now for my retirement in the near future.
that money is better placed in a Superfund than on my roof.
on the other hand: try fighting with Powercor to get commercial power back to the grid, can the power lines take that extra power,??? (this is a question)
I have heard from people in small towns saying that if they want to bring commercial power back to the grid they will not be allowed, ( I am unable to confirm this) but I would love to know from someone here if this is so.?
“that money is better placed in a Superfund than on my roof”
In fact the reverse is true – money on the roof will save you everyday you are turning on your TV or lights. Imagine a zero dollar power bill – that’s how much pay back you are going to have – so invest wisely and you will literally laughing all the way to your roof.
@ Rich Bowen Forget solar power – how about Cold Fusion? In South Australia i believe they have the four perfect spots picked out to build nuclear power plants however i think some people are interested in Russia’s not-so-perfect floating plants http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/04/russias-plans-for-floating-nuclear-power-may-surpr.aspx Obviously since we are now free trading uranium with china they would be the ones to build them. BUT cold fusion is the way to go. With the reports about Fukashima – one drop of perfected cold fusion could freeze every drop of their mess and many other things. Perhaps even help those icecaps re-build somehow – i’m not a scientist but I’ve read some things that suggest it could be possible. Nuclear fusion would be the next step after solar because you could build a grid over the entire country and there’s the electrical grid; everyone on the same one, it’s big enough that it won’t lag (if that’s even possible). It’s in Australia’s hands – no more fossil fuels, let mother earth repair herself… http://disinfo.com/2014/02/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-energy/ obviously my choice would be to have no one but Australians touch it as no one else can be trusted, at least not the yanks anyway.
By the way, Russia’s floating power plants are a horrible idea. They think that if there’s an emergency, that just dumping it into the sea is smart… Sometime’s I wonder about these people and their ideas. We’ve already go Fukashima and then under Chernobyl I think it is… we don’t need anymore nuclear waste in this world. It’s kinda the only one left.
And I like your style of writing. A bit bracket-y at times but overall it’s medium weight news with a light-hearted delivery. I’ve always wanted to be a writer and i’m glad to see someone writes like this.
yes jeff,,I agree,,waste of time spending money to save later. at your age (65) pensioners get a 50% reduction off their electricity bills,,get an allowance to cover the extra spend due to the carbon tax,,the price will never increase for a pensioner,,and the govt will always increase pensions to cover the cost of living,,its a gr8 country,,,also one might die at (66),, yep,,your dead right,,
Ernie, where on earth did you get the idea that pensioners get 50% off!? We most certainly do not!
Food for thought Jeffrey! Thanks. Anyone any late mail on Jeffrey’s question about small towns and commercial power?
unbelievable the stupid negative bulldust spewed out on this,,you buy a system that produces electricity when the sun shines, some state power producers buy your excess power for whatever they wish to pay, the power you use during the day within your system is free,its not calculated by any machine or meter,
this is the facts and the facts are indisputable…anything else is just fairy tale rubbish,,,if you don’t want free energy why even argue about it,,it was the same for gas in cars,,when the govt of the day made it affordable ,,the smart ones converted ,it wasn’t always perfect,,but at the end the smart ones saved money,,car manufacturers made gas only cars,,and yes ,,I did too,,and yes all the negative morons raged against it,,being green is not always tying oneself to a tree or being a sukarse to asylum seekers.
but,,if you don’t need free energy from the sun or want it,,then you should go to a coal site,
like always small minded…. if everyone went to gas then it would cost 2 bucks now not 90 cents…. It is like everything big like power and other important things…. the more that use it the more it costs… Look at solar the more ppl that buy it the more they will jack up the price
Prices jacked up? Are you talking solar systems or conventional power stations?
Prices of solar systems have never been lower, per watt installed.
They will rise gradually as the slack in production, particularly in China, is taken up by manufacturing demands of their own needs.
Nothing is free, everything has an opportunity cost, but I am very happy with my solar hot water system which, with four teenage children, is rapidly paying itself off.
And every kWhr saved is a kWhr that does not have to be transmitted across the network, nor generated at a coal fired station, nor brought there in a coal train, nor dug up out of the ground, nor taken from the local ground water source….
Solar energy is widely distributed and, though diffuse, can significantly support every other energy generation and distribution activity. Good on the Saudi’s for seeing that.
At present poor oil Tony Abbott seems to be of the opinion that the sun could go out at any time soon thus rendering solar technology a bad long term investment…
It goes out every day, in case you haven’t noticed.
Very interesting story, however the constant attempts at humor were quite irritating to say the least.
Solar power has its benefits but also its limitations. I am not yet convinced storage systems can cover peak demand (particularly cheaply enough) for high energy processes like producing Titanium or for that matter the extraction of Hydrogen from sea water to allow converting petrol engines to Hydrogen fuel, which would be cleaner and much less expensive than producing batteries for electric cars and the processing required for dumping them when they eventually have to be replaced.
So, we need to take a lesson from France which produces only 96 gm of CO2 per kWh or electricity c.f. Denmark’s 600 odd – because they went nuclear years ago and have demonstrated it can be done safely. Modern nuclear power is safe and melt-down proof – and fast breeder Uranium reactor’s have brought the waste half-life down to 100 to 120 years. Thorium fission is even better with a half-life of 70 to 100 years, and you cannot make bombs from its by-products. It also stops by itself if there is a plant failure.
If only our policymakers would listen, we too could have a nuclear industry.
Too many Green voters that understand very little. My wifes father works in Russian atomic institute and they build power stations around the world. he said that Aussies are stupid. The amount of pollution nuclear has vs coal. He said Coal is a factor of 10*.
Nuclear would be amazing working with Solar and Hyro/Tidal and other systmes would be amazing.
You are not convinced..
You clearly are not up-to-date with Hot Salt Storage, as described by BZE in their strategic planing documents on repo wearing Australia with 100% clean! renewables.
Far cheaper than the other options you write about, could be built across the country in 10 years and built tomorrow, does not need to wait for designs to be proven. That has been done.
The premise of the article seems to be that if the Saudis are doing it, it must be a good idea. This is patent nonsense. The oil rich middle eastern states invest extremely poorly; that is why despite their massive oil wealth they are still poor countries on a GDP per capita basis. If you think we should build solar plants because very clever, well governed and financially astute sheiks are doing it, then we should also build indoor ski resorts in the desert, create artificial islands for housing which nobody wants to live in, and fill our cities with empty skyscrapers created as vanity projects.
Holding up the actions of some Saudi princeling as evidence that this is a good idea for anyone (including Saudi Arabia) is laughable. If you think that this part of the world is a shining example of good governance and financial good sense, I have some beachfront property in Dubai that I would like to sell you.
Peak oil conspirators have been jumping up and down ever since US oil production peaked in 1970. The amount of times I’ve heard “peak oil is here” has only been dwarfed by the number of “the messiah is returning” claims! The world will NEVER run out of oil – the price may become unaffordable to many, but this in turn sparks further EOR technologies and exploration. Stubbornly high oil prices have resulted in US oil production surging rapidly in the last few years. Shale oil and also many old closed in wells are now economic to operate again. Saudi Arabia was deemed as hiding a sudden drop in output from Ghawar as early as 2000, yet that amazing field is still pumping out 5mbbl/day – about 6% of world production from ONE field.
Background aside, as another commenter has mentioned – every litre of crude and every cubic metre of gas not used for domestic electricity generation is export potential. Makes sense for the Saudis to implement a renewable technology that will have a very high capacity factor in the Arabian Desert, and follow daytime A/C load on the grid. A submarine HVDC cable to Egypt would allow surplus PV generation to be exported during the day and run Aswan Dam baseload overnight to send renewable energy back to the KSA.
Who ever belive’s oil is close to peak or running out is on drugs. The fact is that if OIl as the liquid found in the ground ran out yesterday there is enough other stuff already found that you can turn into oil, such as coal and tar sands, that our kids-Kids will not run out. So give up on peak oil. It just will not happen, if ever.
P.s. When I went to school which was a long time ago, we were going to run out 100% in 1990!!!!!!!!!.
That was 24 years ago, yes 24!!!!!!!.
The saudi’s are doing a lot of development with their surplus cash. Schools, universities, cities, industrial parks, high speed rail, suburban rail, airports, a 1km high skyscraper you name it. They can’t spend all their wealth. A few solar panels in the desert would be one amongst many of their projects.
Interesting article, but a bit simplistic. Rather than go after it point by point, I will comment on one small aspect, where I have some experience. We have not reached peak oil, if we had, oil production would be in decline, which it is not. It continues to grow, and will continue to do so while the price increases, and enables ever more sophisticated technologies to be deployed. The Shale revolutions now taking place all over the world will buttress the continuation of the Hydrocarbon age for many decades to come, maybe even till the end of this century. To those wishing for something else in the future, don’t hold your breath. Maybe your great great grandchildren will see it.
Definition of ‘Peak Oil’ is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. (Wikipedia) Oil companies are drilling in ever more difficult and expensive locations to find new reserves to supplement existing reserves but these ‘finds’ are insignificant and will not add the known reserves in any meaningful way.
The ‘Shale Revolution’ is a mirage that can not be sustained based on EROI assumptions that it will cost more money and more energy to extract than the energy acquired. When you say that known reserves will last until the end of this century, if true, it is a period of time so insignificant that it could not be measured on a millennium clock. It took tens or hundreds of millions of years to produce yet we have all but consumed it in less than a couple of centuries.
Finally, presumably you do not accept Climate Change because oil as with all fossil fuels, 80% will need to remain in the ground if we are to stay below 350 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and avoid Global Warming in excess of 2 degrees but now even that seems unlikely.
I agree with all you say Graham but you’re a little behind the times on the ppm of CO2; we’ve already passed 400ppm.
That should actually read 450ppm not 350ppm – 350ppm is the level of CO2 in the atmosphere that the science dictates is the highest level conducive with a continued human civilisation on this planet…
We actually need to stop emitting carbon and start drawing it back down as quickly as possible – planting trees (and LOTS of them) would be a good start as would creating artificial algal blooms, harvesting the algae and pumping it back down into old oil wells.
There were times when CO2 level in the atmosphere was above 7000 ppm…and life fluorished. Plants grow better with higher content of CO2 – up to about 5000 ppm, when the beneficial effect levels out. On the other hand – when CO2 level falls below 150 ppm – the plants stop growing – and die. Then animals die…then we die. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to perform a simple experiment to confirm this – not that there is much need – because these are well known facts. Now go and start “drawing it back” – as stupid and useless exercise as it can possibly be. Enough said.
Probably one of the most nonsensical comments in a long time.
I don’t think you really understand concepts such as Time Scales and Rate of Change, do you?
Life “as we know it (Jim) ” would/will not survive at 500ppm, let alone your fanciful 5-7000ppm!!!
I wonder if oil bodies are really going to want consumers to know when peak will be reached. it does not make sense from a profitability perspective to advertise the fact that we are even near that point at all. It makes sense to let people know after the fact, so that any alternative developments will take time while consumers continue to pay for the additional costs involved in ongoing extraction. I would think the obvious answer to seek more local and friendly ways of generating power is individual responsibility. But the urgency is not there yet… right… just ask the oil and coal industry.
Why ask the oil industry? They are only going to say there is plenty left in the ground. The Saudis keep their reserves under wraps but the fact remains new reserves are increasingly hard to find and far smaller than the existing reserves. It is hard to refute Peal Oil despite the hopes and wishes of the oil companies.
Mate, you are so far off the mark it suggests your research is a little lacking. I have lived and worked in Saudi for the past 2 years and they have power shortages with the Royal family reluctant to put money into new power plant infrastructure as they want to sell every drop of oil to the world and make big money rather than use the oil for almost no cost to make power. FYI a litre of petrol in Saudi is A$0.15 so better to use the sun for power and sell the oil at US$100/barrel. With Arab spring in the air not a good move to increase fuel prices. Simple economics, they do not give a toss about the environment or global warming just USD’s.
Actually I worked in Saudi Arabia for 2 years between 2011 and 2013. The scariest statistic I ever heard was the rate of domestic consumption of their oil. They use over 40% of their output domestically. It’s not just used for running cars but they also consume a lot in power generation, desalination plants and air-conditioning.
Abdul Latif Jameel is one of the most astute businessmen in the region. There is no doubt that he is investing in a potentially lucrative business opportunity. If solar energy production costs less than the price of oil, then there is plenty of domestic demand and the possibility to still keep the income stream from oil exports.
They also have a dire need for access for cheap energy to keep the momentum of social change and avoid a local version of the Arab Spring
The conjecture of the article is highly speculative, In that context there is nothing to see here folks – move on,
What a bizarre use of the word “nark”!
It detracts from the message.