Gas-fired electricity generation fell again across Australia last year – down to its lowest level in more than 15 years – while the renewables juggernaut rumbled on.
The Morrison Government’s desire for a “gas-led recovery” seems increasingly out of whack with reality given what’s actually happening in the National Electricity Market (NEM).
The Climate Council notes renewables contributed five times more electricity to the NEM than gas in 2021. Its assessment is based on OpenNEM data.
| State | Renewables – 2021 | Gas – 2021 |
| National Electricity Market | 31.4% | 5.7% |
| Tasmania | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| South Australia | 65.7% | 33.5% |
| Victoria | 31.6% | 1.8% |
| New South Wales | 24.6% | 1.5% |
| Queensland | 18.5% | 8.7% |
| Western Australia (SWIS – non-NEM) |
32.2% | 29.8% |
Rooftop Solar Beats Gas
Among the various renewable energy technologies, rooftop solar is playing an increasing role in not just directly powering Australian homes with solar panels installed, but also in contributions to the NEM in the form of exports. In 2021, rooftop solar energy’s contribution to NEM demand reached 7.9%, up from 6.4% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2019.
Looking at 2022 so far, rooftop solar has contributed 10.4% (this time of the year is particularly favourable for PV), while renewable energy overall, 34%.
Renewables provide the important benefits of zero emissions electricity generation and have created a bunch of jobs across Australia, but there has also been benefit for the household hip pocket regardless of whether a home has a solar power system installed or not.
“Electricity is now the cheapest it has been in almost a decade and we have solar and wind to thank for that,” said Climate Council Senior Researcher, Tim Baxter. “Let’s be clear, this record has nothing to do with the federal government, which has been missing in action and leaving all of the heavy-lifting to the states and territories.”
Kurri Kurri Gas Plant Cops It
On a related note, the Climate Council (and many others) have been scathing of the Morrison Government’s intention to spend up to $600 million of public money on the 660 MW gas-fired Kurri Kurri power station in NSW’s Hunter region, saying it will increase electricity prices for households and businesses, not lower them.
“As renewable energy and storage technologies become cheaper by the day, this short-sighted investment in a new gas-fired power station, built with taxpayer money, makes no sense from an energy or economic perspective, and will likely end up as a stranded asset,” said Climate Councillor Dr Madeline Taylor earlier this week.
Federal Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction Angus Taylor disagrees, saying Kurri Kurri “stacks up”. Minister Taylor also noted the gas-burner will be “able to incorporate hydrogen once it becomes commercially viable”.
… and what if it doesn’t? And what kind of hydrogen is Minister Taylor talking here – grey, blue or green? Grey and blue hydrogen are produced using gas or coal – that would be ironic.
Even Labor has signalled support if the plant is powered by 30% green hydrogen when Kurri Kurri becomes operational, 50% by 2025 and 100% by 2030.
This is a $600 million bet being made with someone else’s money. If green hydrogen doesn’t become commercially viable for electricity generation at such a scale, it’s not as though the plant will be shuttered.
Strange days indeed.
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It’s not quite the same time period but if you look at the 8 Feb 2021 – 13 Feb 2022 figures the claim Renewables beats Gas is slightly misleading.
Renewables come in at 31.9% to Gas’ 5.9% – similar to, though slightly worse than claimed by SQ, however Hydro comprised 7.8% of that 31.9%. Rooftop Solar comprises 8.1% – a surprisingly high proportion given figures likely don’t include self consumption, Utility Solar comprises 4.5%, and Wind comprises 11.3% which leaves 0.2% unaccounted for somewhere.
On a state by state basis however the picture is rather different.
You have Tasmania as 99.9% Renewables, 0.1% Gas, however Hydro comprised 85.1% of Tasmania’s power.
Victoria is listed as 31.6% Renewables v 1.8% Gas (I’m seeing 34.8% Renewables) but Hydro is 6% – just under a sixth of the total. Brown Coal at 71.3% obviously remains Victoria’s primary source.
NSW is listed as 24.6% Renewables v 1.5% Gas (I’m seeing 29.4% Renewables) but Hydro is 3.7%. Black Coal at 68.5% is NSW’s primary source.
Queensland is liseted as 18.5% Renewables v 8.7% Gas (I’m seeing 19.5% Renewables) with Hydro at 1.7%. Black Coal at 74.2% Queensland’s primary source.
Okay I’ll be honest, Renewables – sans Hydro, still has surprisingly (to me at least) strong performance – roughly 4x that of Gas overall, but with a lot of variation state to state.
Tasmania is primarily reliant on Hydro, which rather skews the figures, but other states barely have any. An area they could invest in? Probably not these days given Green activism, but an area for thought – especially given flood and drought concerns. Ironically it was the construction of dams in Tasmania – which now supply the majority of said state’s power and Renewable energy, or rather the battle against them, that led to the formation of the Greens Party. Tasmania would be a very different place had the Greens successfully prevented the construction of the dams!
While SA and WA are both heavily reliant on Gas, their Coal reliance (nil for SA) is far lower than that of QLD, NSW, or Victoria, states that conversely use very little Gas. Perhaps its not indicative of anything, but high coal reliance, and very little Hydro, likely means Renewable will have to grow substantially if they want to ever be the primary source for power – even doubling Wind and Solar output would by no means guarantee toppling Coal as the primary source of power.
Still, an interesting set of figures.
George Kaplan,
“Perhaps its not indicative of anything, but high coal reliance, and very little Hydro, likely means Renewable will have to grow substantially if they want to ever be the primary source for power – even doubling Wind and Solar output would by no means guarantee toppling Coal as the primary source of power.”
George, what data do you base that on? Coal will inevitably go – it’s only a matter of timing.
George, perhaps you are not aware of AEMO’s Generating Unit Expected Closure Year Excel spreadsheet?
Per the latest spreadsheet, dated 21 Jan 2022, NSW’s five remaining operating coal-fired power stations are expected to close by (in order of expected closure):
Liddell _ _ _ _ LD03 _ _ _ 2022 Apr 01 _500 MW
Liddell _ _ _ _ LD04 _ _ _ 2023 Apr 01 _500 MW
Liddell _ _ _ _ LD01 _ _ _ 2023 Apr 01 _500 MW
Liddell _ _ _ _ LD02 _ _ _ 2023 Apr 01 _500 MW
Vales Point B _ VP6 _ _ _ 2029 _ _ _ _ 660 MW
Vales Point B _ VP5 _ _ _ 2029 _ _ _ _ 660 MW
Eraring _ _ _ _ER04 _ _ _ 2030 _ _ _ _ 720 MW
Eraring _ _ _ _ER01 _ _ _ 2031 _ _ _ _ 720 MW
Eraring _ _ _ _ER03 _ _ _ 2032 _ _ _ _ 720 MW
Eraring _ _ _ _ER02 _ _ _ 2032 _ _ _ _ 720 MW
Bayswater _ _ BW03_ _ _ 2035 _ _ _ _ 660 MW
Bayswater _ _ BW04_ _ _ 2035 _ _ _ _ 660 MW
Bayswater _ _ BW01_ _ _ 2035 _ _ _ _ 660 MW
Bayswater _ _ BW02_ _ _ 2035 _ _ _ _ 660 MW
Mt Piper _ _ _ MP2 _ _ _ _2040 _ _ _ _ 730 MW (upgraded capacity Dec 2020)
Mt Piper _ _ _ MP1 _ _ _ _2040 _ _ _ _ 700 MW
https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-planning-data/generation-information
AGL announced yesterday (Feb 10) that it will bring forward the closure of the Bayswater black coal generator in NSW to no later than 2033, and the Loy Yang A brown coal generator in Victoria to 2045.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/agl-coal-closures-inch-forward-but-fall-well-short-of-market-plans-and-climate-needs/
I’d suggest the AEMO’s timetable will be further revised towards earlier closure dates for in due course, due to worsening economics for NSW’s (and other jurisdictions’) coal-fired generators.
https://www.nature.org.au/mt_piper_to_close_five_years_sooner_than_announced_last_month
Indicators I see suggest adequate, currently approved local coal supplies for Mt Piper generators look increasingly precarious beyond about 2026.
CORRECTION: Mt Piper MP1 (NOT MP2) had its turbine generator and boiler overhauled to increase maximum generating capacity from rated 700 MW to 730 MW, returning to operational availability on 1 Jan 2021, per EnergyAustralia CCC Meeting minutes for 1 Mar 2021.
https://www.energyaustralia.com.au/about-us/energy-generation/mt-piper-power-station/mt-piper-community
Mt Piper MP2 was scheduled for 2 Sep 2021 outage for 700 MW to 730 MW generator capacity upgrade and boiler overhaul, but has been delayed “due to safety concerns caused by COVID” until the first week of Sep 2022, per EnergyAustralia CCC Meeting minutes for 6 Dec 2021.
It seems the Badgingarra wind farm in Jan 2022 reportedly had a higher capacity factor (more than 60%) compared with two dozen coal-fired generator units in the NEM – see graph titled January 2022 coal asset performance vs Badgingarra at:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/renewable-energy-records-blown-away-in-january-as-wind-farms-match-coal-output/
UPDATE: Origin Energy is reportedly seeking approval from the Australian energy regulator, AEMO, for closing Australia’s largest coal-fired power plant at Eraring in NSW by Aug 2025 – 7 years earlier than previously expected (see my earlier comment above).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-17/origin-to-shut-eraring-power-station-early/100838474
Who’s next to announce more coal-fired power plant earlier retirements?
New South Wales (4.16 GW) and Victoria (2.04 GW) have significant Hydro capacity, according to the facilities part of Open NEM, they just represent a much lower proportion of their states` electricity generation than Tasmania (2.36 GW).