I have no idea what the badge says but Finn insisted on adding it.
During our 15th SolarQuotes vodcast filmed on Friday, Finn tried to get my goat by pointing out greenhouse gas emissions would be considerably higher without nuclear power.
Fortunately, my goat was agile and able to avoid his grasp because that sounds right to me. Without nuclear power, emissions would be higher.
Seeing he wasn’t about to get a Ronald goat dinner that way, he changed tack and said he believed countries in the far north of Europe, such as Finland, would need nuclear power to get off fossil fuels because of long dark winters where the sun might only rise for a few hours a day.
This did manage to get a little bit of my goat. Maybe just enough for a goat taco. My gut feeling was, given the immense expense of new nuclear generation these days, even in Finland renewable energy should be cheaper than nuclear power.
But I didn’t argue with him because it was just a gut feeling. I didn’t actually know. My ability to not argue about something solely based on my feelings and being content to wait until I have real evidence is a superpower of mine. Before the internet I didn’t realize this was a unique gift but now I know I walk a lonely road.
So I decided to look into whether or not it would be cheaper to use renewable energy than nuclear energy in Finland. Or since he came from there — Finn’s Land.
Nuclear Power Makes No Sense In Australia
First I’ll state Finn and I are in 100% agreement that nuclear power is not economically viable in Australia. Our renewable energy resources are so vast and the cost of wind and solar power so low, there’s no way it can pay here.
Helsinki’s Hellish Winter Solar Resources
Finn is right to be leery of solar power’s ability to power Finland. It doesn’t look too bad if you compare the annual output of 1 kilowatt of optimally positioned solar panels in Sydney to Finland’s capital:
- Sydney: 1,420 kilowatt-hours per year
- Helsinki: 932 kilowatt-hours per year
That’s only one-third less, so it looks like it might only increase the cost of solar power by one-third, which isn’t too bad considering how cheap it has become. But if we look at solar output during the worst month of the year we get:
- Sydney: May — 86 kilowatt-hours
- Helsinki: December — 4 kilowatt-hours
That is not a typo. In the worst month the Helsinki solar panels will only produce 4.5% as much as in Sydney with an average output of only 0.13 kilowatt-per day. The energy produced in the worst month as a percentage of what’s produced in the best month is:
- Sydney: May output compared to December — 61%
- Helsinki: December output compared to July — 2.8%
Clearly this makes powering Finland with solar power in the wintertime a difficult proposition. It’s not very practical to store summertime solar energy for use in winter. I suppose you could grow trees in the summertime and burn the wood in the winter, but how primitive would a country have to be to use wood as a major energy source?
The Cost Of Nuclear Power In Finland
I am going to look at the total likely cost for Finland to commission and build a new reactor right now or in the near future. I’m not going to worry about what nuclear power may cost in 10, 20, or 50 years. The best indicator should be what it costs to build a nuclear reactor in developed countries now or, better yet, how much Finland’s newest reactor costs. Looking at their latest nuclear energy project, the 1.6 gigawatt Olkiluoto Reactor 3, I see…
OH MY GOD!
What a shit storm!
Construction started in 2005 and it’s still not finished1 14 years later. It was supposed to enter operation in 2009 but now that doesn’t look like it will happen until 2020.
We don’t know how much it costs as figures have not been released. We have an estimate of $13.7 billion from 2012 before it ran into a whole new set of cost overruns and delays. A similar nuclear reactor was started in Flamanville, France in 2007 and it’s still not finished yet either. It’s estimated cost is $17.6 billion. As the Finnish Okiluoto reactor has taken even longer to build, its total cost may be even higher at around $20 billion. As it is a 1.6 gigawatt reactor that would be $12,500 per kilowatt of power output.
If the reactor operates at an average of 90% capacity for 40 years then to get a 5% real return2 on a $20 billion dollar investment they would need to get 29 cents per kilowatt-hour produced. They’ll also need extra on top of that to cover fuel, operations, maintenance, disposal, security and decommissioning. I’ll be kind and say that only comes to 3 cents per kilowatt-hour. So to get a 5% return this nuclear reactor would have to sell its electricity at an average wholesale price of 32 cents per kilowatt-hour.
This is insane.
One good thing is the Finnish people are only on the hook for the original $4.8 billion that was budgeted. But the companies involved might still go bust or claw some money back in court. I wouldn’t know, I’m not a Finnish lawyer. I don’t even know if they have lawyers in Finland. Maybe they just settle everything with Viking fights.
Now I see why the Hinkley C reactor in the UK required a minimum payment of 20 cents per kilowatt-hour in today’s money for its first 35 years of operation in order to go ahead. The cost of modern nuclear power is absolutely nuts. It’s nuttier than a knife wielding Mr Peanut bowling with the severed head of his defeated enemy.
Do not fuck with Mr Peanut. He will cut you.
Maybe the nuclear industry has learned from the disasters of the French Flamanville and Finnish Olkiluoto reactors and will be able to build another one for less, but after seeing what can go wrong would you offer to go round again for a significantly lower price? Once all costs are included I think new nuclear power could cost Finland 20 cents per kilowatt-hour of wholesale electricity generated. If I was being very optimistic I would say maybe they could get it for 15 cents per kilowatt-hour. But even if fortune smiles on the Finns and they can get it for only 8 cents a kilowatt-hour, it still doesn’t look good compared to other options available.
Option 1: Use Gas & Offset Emissions
Gas burned in a 50% efficient power plant in Europe will have a fuel cost right now of around 7.2 cents per kilowatt-hour and releases 370 grams of CO2. It’s possible CO2 could be agriculturally removed from the atmosphere and sequestered for as little as $70 a tonne, but I will use a figure of $100 a tonne3. That would come to 3.7 cents per kilowatt-hour generated. If we throw in another 2.5 cents to cover the relatively low cost of building, operating, and maintaining gas power stations it comes to 15 cents per kilowatt-hour. That’s equal to my optimistic estimate of the cost of new nuclear with the advantage that gas generation is a lot more flexible.
I’m not saying this is a sensible way to generate clean electricity, but if nuclear can’t beat this it clearly has serious problems.
Option 2: A Long Extension Lead
The distance a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission line would need to be to reach from Finland to the following countries is very roughly:
- Spain: 3,500 km
- Tunisia: 3,100 km
- Turkey: 3,000 km
Both Spain and Tunisia are sunnier, but Turkey is closest and the terrain on the way is a lot flatter, so I’ll consider building a transmission line from Finland to there.
Losses for a HVDC cable over 3,000 kilometers would be around 10%, so to provide as much power as a 1.6 gigawatt nuclear reactor its capacity would need to be 1.8 gigawatts. An estimate for a 600 megawatt HVDC line from Robertstown in South Australia to Wagga Wagga is $655,000 per km.4 Tripling its capacity would not triple its cost, but I’ll assume it’s more expensive to build transmission lines in Europe and use a figure of $2 million per km; so a 3,000 km cable will cost $6 billion.
In reality all countries connected to the transmission line would be willing to contribute to its cost or at least pay to use it after it was built, but I’ll assume Europeans are really bad at building transmission lines and $6 billion is Finland’s share.
Assuming the transmission line does nothing but supply Finland with 1.6 gigawatts of power and they need a 5% return on their investment to build, operate and maintain it, it will cost 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour it supplies.
Wind power in Turkey is currently being built for under 5 cents per kilowatt-hour while, according to official figures, solar power is still expensive at around 9 cents per kilowatt-hour, but I expect its price will fall rapidly. If Finland has to pay 5 cents per kilowatt-hour for renewable Turkish electricity, then after transmission losses it will be 5.5 cents. Adding 2.1 cents for long distance transmission will bring it to 7.6 cents per kilowatt-hour. This is half the cost of my optimistic estimate of 15 cents for new nuclear.
Option 3: Finnish Wind Power
The average price bid for new wind power in Finland in March this year was 4 cents per kilowatt-hour while the cheapest bid was 2 cents. As its cost is still falling, home blown wind power should cost an average of under 4 cents per kilowatt-hour.
The wind doesn’t always blow when you want it. But it does tend to blow more in winter in Finland, which is when the sun doesn’t really rise into the sky but instead stealths around behind clouds and hills for a few hours. To cover shortfalls in wind output, energy storage such as pumped hydro and/or batteries or other sources of electricity will be required. Looking at where Finland gets its electricity now I see it is:
- Hydroelectricity — around 17%
- Wood — around 13%
This has to make Finland the most wood powered developed nation in the world. It mostly uses waste from their lumber and paper pulping industries.
This means Finland already gets around 30% of its electricity from dispatchable renewable energy resources that can ramp their power output up or down depending on how much wind power is being produced. Their hydropower should be very flexible as it all comes from dams and not run of the river hydro, while wood power would, in general, be less able to respond to supply and demand.
Finland also currently gets around 25% of its electricity from nuclear energy, but this is very inflexible. Because nuclear fuel is so cheap, running a reactor at half power costs almost as much as running it at full power — which is a lot.5
Unlike their neighbor, Norway, which is firmly wedged against Finland’s butt, around half of new cars sold this year won’t be electric. But Finland does have more electric cars per capita than we do and they’re planning to get more. If Finns could charge their electric cars for cheap when electricity demand is low and wind output is high — and vice versa — it should be a convenient way to accommodate large amounts of wind power. Electric vehicles could also supply power to the grid when needed, but it’s not clear at the moment if that will be common.
But even if Finland has to build a large amount of expensive new energy storage and this doubles the cost of using electricity from wind, it will still only come to around half my optimistic estimate of the cost of nuclear power. And the cost of renewables and energy storage are certain to continue to fall in price.
Option 4: Reality
You’d think after the immense cost blowout of the new Olkiluoto nuclear reactor Finland wouldn’t want to touch nuclear power with a 10 kilometre exclusion zone. But in 2010 they planned to build the 1.2 gigawatt Hanhikivi Nuclear Power Station. After several years of delay it looks like construction will begin in 2021 and it is planned to be complete in 2028.
On the bright side, it’s a Russian design that may be less likely to explode in cost like the Olkiluoto and Flamanville nuclear reactors. But even if everything goes to plan — and I’m willing to take bets it won’t — its electricity will cost around 8 cents per kilowatt-hour in today’s money. That’s double the current cost of Finnish wind and at best it will be 9 years before it’s supplied. By then renewable energy and storage will cost much less. The Hinkley C reactor in Wales will get a minimum of around 20 cents per kilowatt-hour, so it will be interesting to see if the Russian design can come in at 40% of that. It will make the Brits look super stupid if it does.
Since construction hasn’t started yet I definitely think it would be a good idea to cancel the nuclear reactor, but at the moment Finland is giving the impression it’s going ahead. Regardless of if it gets built or not, Finland’s international electricity transmission capacity will increase, as is happening throughout Europe. They will also expand wind generation which currently provides around 7% of their electricity.
Will Nuclear Power Get Cheaper?
Nuclear power may get cheaper in the future. After all, it’s hard to see how it could become more expensive than the cost of the small number of reactors currently under construction in the developed world. But I don’t see it ever becoming competitive with renewable energy, even in countries with long dark winters.
While nuclear power is super pricey now, it has never been cheap. You may hear examples of low cost nuclear power touted, but those are successful projects and if it was possible to tell if a project will successfully remain in budget before it starts then there would be no such thing as cost overruns.
Also, many costs are often left out of estimates. These can include insurance6 waste disposal, decommissioning, real costs of capital, and increased need for spinning reserve capacity to cope with a large reactor going offline.
This means there is no magic way to suddenly make nuclear power competitive with renewable energy. While new technological developments could lower its cost, if nuclear power is going to be a significant source of energy in the future, someone is going to have to build and operate a reactor that can beat renewables on total cost. And I don’t see that happening given how cheap renewable energy is.
Footnotes
- Or maybe I should say it’s not “Finnished”? ↩
- This is not a high figure as EDF uses a 9% figure for cost of capital for the Hinkley C reactor in the UK. ↩
- This would generally involve sequestering carbon in agricultural waste. ↩
- Page 5 in this report. ↩
- This means a reactor that shuts down costs its owners almost as much as one that operates normally. Sure, they could save money by sacking the workers, but if it’s not properly maintained it will eventually turn into a very large and very expensive to get rid of lawn ornament. ↩
- While a modern nuclear reactor is very unlikely to release dangerous amounts of radioactivity into the environment, they should still be insured and if they aren’t insured the cost doesn’t disappear, it just gets pushed onto society. ↩
About Ronald Brakels
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If each of Australia’s 2 million or so home solar installations were valued at $5000, the total would exceed $10 billion. The result is perhaps a 20 year, 2% (fair weather ) contribution to the >250,000GWh annual generation.
Keep in mind rooftop solar displaces grid electricity that can cost 30 cents or more. This makes it a very good investment for almost anyone with an unshaded roof. Of course, the average household won’t see the 9% return on capital EDF will get for the Hinkley C reactor, but we can’t all get our dosh from British households.
Hi Ronald
I wonder if you are comparing apples with oranges – surely Finland and the UK (and others) must have some rationale for building nuclear?
Perhaps you need to include storage costs for intermittent sources?
I do know that nuclear produces absolutely PRODIGIOUS quantities of energy – also, Hinckley C has a design life of 60 years, not 40.
Interestingly, the UK recently achieved 100 days of operation, without burning any coal in power stations. How did they do this?
1. Just over 5% from PV (small)
2. Just over 5% from wind (small)
3. About 20% from nuclear.
4. About 59% from Natural gas (huge)
I’m not sure if they sequestered the CO2 after burning that much gas, but at least is cleaner and less polluting than coal.
My question to you is, how are they going to take natural gas out of the equation (and its attendant CO2 contribution)? Add 20 times as much intermittent renewables, and gazillions of dollars worth of batteries (that will need to be 100% replaced every 10 years or so)?
Put in massive transmission lines to Spain (then, how do they ensure security of supply)? Interestingly, Europe has reportedly lost millions of dollars of renewable opportunity, due to curtailment – their grid was designed for concentrated point sources of generation, and is not working very well with distributed renewable supplies. It will need a massive upgrade – more costs that should be attributed to renewables.
I’m not saying we should go the nuclear route, or should not be going for more intermittent renewables. But, I do think it is disingenuous to ignore the true, total cost of implementation of any given technology.
I suspect professionals in Finland and the UK have done their homework?
If the Finns only have to pay the original $4.8 billion for Olkiluoto reactor 3 that’s not too bad as it’s not that much worse than for seaborne coal and a hell of a lot better for the environment and it was planned before the massive fall in costs of renewables. But the 20 cents for Hinkley C is just nuts and professionals in the UK at the time demonstrated it was nuts and they were ignored. I presume it was the British version of the Abbott government and Morrison waving his lump of coal around in Parliament.
At present 100 new nuclear power station are being built right now with 300 more on the drawing board.
It takes 60 Months from start to finish to build a nuclear power station.
Why would so many countries continue to build them if it wasen’t economic?
Just wonder-
I love my solar panels and hot water heater but millions of us are living in apartments with no change of installing solar panels.
Hi Paul
Where did you get that information from? Currently there are 13 new nuclear power stations under construction and total of 57 nuclear reactors for electricity generation under construction at new and existing sites. The information is here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_reactors
Hi Ronald
The information was obtained from –World Nuclear Association–
Nuclear plant construction
at present we have 450 operating worldwide
Over 100 power reactors with a total gross capacity of about 120,000 MWe are on order or planned, and over 300 more are proposed. Most reactors currently planned are in the Asian region, with fast-growing economies and rapidly-rising electricity demand.
Many countries with existing nuclear power programmes either have plans to, or are building, new power reactors. Every country worldwide that has operating nuclear power plants, or plants under construction, has a dedicated country profile in the Information Library.
About 30 countries are considering, planning or starting nuclear power programmes (see information paper on Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries).
On order or planned is different from under construction, but thanks for the information.
What will determine if nuclear power plants will continue to be built is the cost of electricity from them can compete with renewables. Do you have any estimates for the total per kilowatt-hour cost of electricity from new reactors in developed countries?
Hi Ronald
No I dont have any estimates for the total per Kw-Hour cost from new reactors
My time is better spend getting the weed out of my garden than looking that up
Lazard’s 2018 report:
• New nuclear: US$112‒189 / MWh (up from US$92‒132 in 2014)
• Wind: US$29‒56 (US$37‒81 in 2014),
• Utility-scale solar: US$36‒46 (US$72‒86 in 2014).
• Natural-gas combined-cycle plant: US$41‒74 for a (US$61‒87 in 2014)
• Nuclear construction costs US$6.5‒12.5 million per megawatt (US$5.4‒8.3 million in 2014)
https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf
btw here’s a summary of developments with small modular reactors
https://theecologist.org/2019/mar/11/obituary-small-modular-reactors
According to http://www.world-nuclear.org/our-association/what-we-do/the-harmony-programme.aspx they seem to think the LCOE of Nuclear is about $50-$100 per MWh and solar is about $100-$190 per MWh.
Sounds to me like wishful thinking by a nuclear association. Ahh, aparently the figures are from “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity – 2015 Edition, International Energy Agency and OECD Nuclear Energy Agency”. Any figures on the cost of Solar and Wind from 2015 are going to be woefully out of date and too expensive.
I’m perfectly happy for there to be nuclear power, but like Ronald, I’m pretty skeptical of its future (or even current) financial viability, but if countries or power companies want to spend their money on it then it is low-carbon energy, so I’ll keep me happy.
Hi Jim
I noticed your Lazard’s reference doesn’t include costs of, and energy losses for storage – batteries and pumped hydro.
It seems the plan is to use Natural Gas peaking plants to cover intermittency – cheaper than other options, but still produces CO2, so not really a sustainable solution.
Paul,
You say:
“It takes 60 Months from start to finish to build a nuclear power station.”
That appears to be the absolute best case. A 2011 International Nuclear Atlantic Conference – INAC 2011 paper abstract says:
“The cost of electricity generated by nuclear power is greatly affected by the capital cost, which is dependent on the construction time of the plant. This work analyses the construction time of PWRs in several countries with different market structure and licensing experience. Countries which succeeded to establish a more collaborative environment among utilities, constructors, regulators, and energy planners through effective partnerships were able to build PWRs in shorter times. The construction time in Germany, France and Russia was around 80 months and in Japan, about 60 months. The envelope of 95% of the cases includes a range between 50 and 250 months of construction time. The evaluations show that construction time of PWRs has been longer for countries that did not hold the technology to build their own reactors, and depended on contracts with foreign suppliers. The nominal power of the reactors was considered a measure of plant size, technology complexity and standardization. Countries with standardized reactor designs (France, Japan and Russia) were able to build
plants in shorter times.”
And under the heading “3. Construction time of PWRs” it included:
“The average construction time of nuclear power plants between 1976 and 2009 was 92 months or 7.7 years with a maximum of 10 years between 1996 and 2000.”
See: https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/42/105/42105221.pdf
Then add in the approval process times and the nuclear option cannot be considered a timely technology to provide rapid, effective mitigation for dangerous climate change. Uranium and thorium are finite resources, thus they are not long-term sustainable, and there’s the high-level waste problem that will be imposed on multiple generations to come.
See my comment: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/fuel-efficiency-standards/#comment-438325
Ian Dunlop’s op-ed (referred in my linked comment) includes:
“To stay below 2°C, global emissions must peak now and be reduced by around 7% annually, something no country has ever achieved. The lower 1.5°C Paris target requires even more rapid reduction. Meanwhile, emissions rise in line with worst case scenarios.”
Renewables are cheaper, quicker to deploy, reliable (with adequate energy storage and robust interconnectors), safer/lower-risk, long-term sustainable, and without the ultra-long-term waste problem.
Hi Geoff
I’ve read recent posts (elsewhere) saying Westinghouse AP1000 reactor plants can be built in 36 months.
Methinks the biggest time delays are the approval and financing processes – perhaps further delayed by obstructionism from those who should really know better (safer technology than Solar – by an order of magnitude – when considering fatalities per terrawatt-hour of energy produced). These figures include the impact of Chernobyl, Fukashima, Harris Island, etc.
Sarah Hanson Young stated :”nuclear is dangerous” – another ignorant victim of the hatched job done by fake news media.
I suspect it is irrational fear alone, that is forcing use to stay with a technology (coal) that is resulting (by calculation) in 4,000 times the number of lives lost for power production, and millions of tonnes more CO2 polluting the atmosphere. This obstructionism probably explains the very recent 10 times cost increase for nuclear – it’s not the technology, rather the ill-informed.
“Follow the money” one correspondent noted – and I see the big powers gearing up for a natural gas future. At least this is about half the CO2 emission rate. Some talk about a brand new Coal station in Queensland – they would want at least 40 years of production – I would much prefer a nuclear plant, with far great safety, far less fatalities, and near zero CO2 – and would be willing to pay more for this, so long as it isn’t excessively expensive. In the meantime, we are going to export our “clean” coal to Bangladesh, for them to burn to make “cheap” energy – allowing them to get ahead admittedly, but at what cost to the planet? I can’t help thinking we will continue to burm coal for energy production for at least 4 to 5 decades – despite the “starry-eyed” optimists. I’ve recently read a beat-up about a Victorian school Solar system producing 1 GWhr over a year – sounded fantastic until you got down to the nitty-gritty – very poor capacity factor – I hope they didn’t pay too much for it (although, by virtue of their use timing, I think schools are an optimum application for solar.
And, the COALition MPs in Qld are asking for Nuclear! So they ARE concerned about reliable, CO2-free power!
Ian Thompson,
You state:
“I’ve read recent posts (elsewhere) saying Westinghouse AP1000 reactor plants can be built in 36 months.”
Which posts, Ian? You are not providing any references.
Has Westinghouse actually built AP1000 reactor plants in 36 months, or is this just wishful thinking? It seems apparently in 2008, China started building four units of the AP1000’s 2005-design.
Looking at Wikipedia’s reference for “AP1000”, it includes:
“In 2016 and 2017 cost overruns constructing AP1000 plants in the U.S. caused Westinghouse’s owner Toshiba to write down its investment in Westinghouse by “several billion” dollars.[7] On 14 February 2017 Toshiba delayed filing financial results, and Toshiba chairman Shigenori Shiga, formerly chairman of Westinghouse, resigned.[8][9][10] On March 24, 2017, Toshiba announced that Westinghouse Electric Company will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy because of US$9 billion of losses from nuclear reactor construction projects, which may impact the future of the AP1000.[11] Westinghouse emerged out of bankruptcy in August 2018.[12]”
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP1000
It seems to me Westinghouse has been reportedly having financial difficulties.
IMO, some COALition, PHON and other ‘conservative’ MPs recent obsession with nuclear power is just a delay tactic to keep coal plants going, and stop renewables expanding – meaning nothing gets done to rapidly reduce our GHG emissions.
Katherine Murphy wrote in The Guardian on Saturday:
“When Switkowski was asked by Howard to weigh the evidence and report back, he concluded that Australia could establish a nuclear industry, and nuclear power plants could make a useful contribution to the country’s abatement task, but he said setting them up would take between 10 and 15 years.”
See: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/15/nothing-new-in-coalitions-nuclear-awakening-no-wait-perhaps-there-is
You say:
“This obstructionism probably explains the very recent 10 times cost increase for nuclear – it’s not the technology, rather the ill-informed.”
What obstructionism, Ian? Would that be nuclear plants take too long to build, are substantially price noncompetitive with ‘firmed’ renewables, nuclear fission is not long-term sustainable because the fuel supply is finite, and the toxic waste legacy long outlasts any energy benefits gained? It seems to me you are unable to see the substantial negatives.
You also say:
“I can’t help thinking we will continue to burm coal for energy production for at least 4 to 5 decades – despite the “starry-eyed” optimists.”
If David Spratt and Ian Dunlop’s 2050 scenario outlined in their recently published policy paper on existential climate and security risks is anywhere near accurate, then humanity will probably become extinct before the end of this century.
See: http://www.climatecodered.org/2019/05/can-we-think-in-new-ways-about.html
Hi Geoff
It seems to me you have failed to grasp what I was saying.
Firstly, I did not say that Westinghouse would be building the plants – I was fully aware that they were in financial trouble – I had understood the article concerned a third party building AP1000 plants, which are of a Westinghouse design. My apologies, the article came up on my phone and I was merely quoting it – I’ll have to did around to see if I can find it (should have noted the source at the time). 2 x AP1000 reactors went online in China in July and August 2018 – a 4th online in China in October 13th 2018. I note Quora states new-age AP1000 can be constructed in roughly 40 months – but this is not where I read 36 months. https://www.quora.com/How-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor Apparently much extra time is required if the reactor is of a new design, and needs licensing – which may explain much of your confusion. Someone pointed out the 4:1 price ratio between a Chinese AP1000 (US$6billion for 2), and a US AP1000 (Votgle) – answer was that the Chinese are choking on coal smoke, so don’t get in the way of construction – kind of my point about obstructionism! A-ha – Try Googling this:
Can an AP1000 nuclear plant be built in 36 months?
First concrete pour, to fuel loading.
Why would building a nuclear capability delay reducing CO2 from the new coal-fired stations being proposed? Surely it would be better to build new nuclear plants, than new coal plants?
I view most comments such as “nuclear takes too long”,” nuclear is too expensive”, “nuclear is too dangerous”, “renewable capability can be implemented faster than nuclear”, as mainly being driven by irrational fear of a technology that many have been brainwashed by “fake” media into believing it will grow you two heads – I see these excuses in just about every “green” statement made about the issue.
By “obstructionism” I mean, that as well as the activities of the COAL lobby to prevent replacement of their income with a quick, equivalently dispachable, non-CO2 emitting alternative, there are many who oppose nuclear whenever they can, for reason mostly of their uneducated fear. These types of unnecessary obstructionist delays are inevitably going to delay decision-making, delay construction, delay funding – the list goes on – with the result that cost increases are inevitable.
I think your concern about the negatives is largely hyperbole – Australia would be better suited to waste management, than all of Europe, all of the USA, much of Russia, and all of the UK – yet all of these areas utilise nuclear.
There are 449 reactors in commercial use throughout the world, but none in Australia – who exports uranium for overseas consumption. New GenIV reactors, when available, will burn as fuel most of the existing waste held on nuclear plant sites, and extend the existing reserves lifetime by several times.
The 3.45 GW Tibetan solar plant presently under construction is to be installed over an area of 298 square kilometres! You surely don’t believe that is going to come online overnight, do you? At a fatality rate of 10 times that of nuclear! Plus, like much fake and/or misleading boosting in the renewable industries, and the news media, I’d think this plant will likely have a capacity factor less than 25%, meaning the actual delivered average power is not even 1 GW – about one third of that from each of many 3 MW nuclear plants operatng throughout the world. Plus, this plant will need very extensive “balancing” to be effective – and that will cost enormous money, and time.
And, many countries (e.g. Germany) are looking at a hydrogen economy – particularly for transport – with hydrogen “bowsers” already being installed. As far as I am aware, hydrogen is made commercially primarily by steam reforming of natural gas – or other fossil fuels (very little by water electrolysis, due to the cost and energy inefficiencies) – and this produces substantial CO2 emissions. Not all CO2 is emitted by electricity generators.
Sorry Geoff – follow the money – I think the quickest way we can reduce our electricity-production CO2 emissions is to first drop coal in favour of natural gas, which can be done very quickly using existing steam generators and will essential halve this source of CO2 – while at the same time building nuclear plants to work with renewables during the transition period to eliminate almost all CO2 from electrical energy production. This will surely extend the deadline for the Armageddon your are so concerned about to give the extra time needed for renewables.
I am for renewables, but every time I did into this, I come across unrealistic and misleading information – the UK recently went 100 days without burning coal – they are way ahead of us, and will no doubt keep burning coal for a time yet – but the solar PV contribution was only about 5%, wind another 5%. The main source used was natural gas – and much nuclear!
Sorry Geoff – no matter how hard you wish for and pray for a fully renewables energy economy, I still doubt I’ll see that in my lifetime – it will take too long to install the millions upon millions of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries, and hundreds of transmission lines and hydro plants needed to make these effective. Plus, these will take out only about 1% of the world’s present CO2 production from fossil fuel use (the other 2% from agricultural and other non-electricity sources). Grand view, but I believe TOTALLY unrealistic. We have almost no “firmed” renewables – and Finn says to go “off grid” would cost about 3 times the cost of existing rooftop PV plus batteries (aleady a problem). With renewables, the grid itself as to be able to operate effectively “off grid”.
Ian Thompson (Re your comment above at June 18, 2019 at 6:31 pm)
I stated in my earlier comment that:
“It seems apparently in 2008, China started building four units of the AP1000’s 2005-design.”
You say:
“2 x AP1000 reactors went online in China in July and August 2018 – a 4th online in China in October 13th 2018.”
Build start in 2008, operational in 2018 – that’s circa 10 years, NOT 36 months.
You appear to be dismissing “Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis”, CSIRO/AEMO’s “GenCost 2018”, LUT/EWG study and other studies indicating that nuclear is more expensive than ‘firmed’ renewables. It seems these studies are all inconvenient to your narrative.
You apparently ignore Spratt and Dunlop’s policy paper 2050 scenario that threatens humanity’s existence.
You apparently ignore that uranium and thorium are finite resources, so they cannot be “perpetuity” energy technologies.
You say:
“I think the quickest way we can reduce our electricity-production CO2 emissions is to first drop coal in favour of natural gas, which can be done very quickly using existing steam generators and will essential halve this source of CO2”
You apparently ignore the fact humanity must stop burning ALL FOSSIL FUELS to reduce our global GHG emissions to net-zero by 2050 – burning more gas defeats that objective. Unconventional gas has a “fugitive emissions” problem that likely makes it far worse than coal, because methane is a much more potent GHG compared with CO2.
In 2018, USA produced more than a fifth (21.5%) of the world’s gas supply, yet it reportedly has an R/P of only 14.3 years. (BPSRoWE-2019). Despite record production growth in 2018, the boom can’t last.
It seems to me that facts are irrelevant for you. It seems no one is going to dissuade you from your faith in nuclear and your apparent anti-renewable viewpoint.
Hi Geoff
I am certainly NOT at all anti-renewable – I have no idea where you got that from.
I certainly AM aware of Lazard’s report – but you still DO have to include balancing costs and PV/Wind “spill” into the equation – not just look at the instantaneous peak power of any technology.
I just don’t think we will be able to manufacture and install 100’s of millions of solar panels, batteries, hydro, transmission lines, etc., within the timeframe you are suggesting – no matter what the will.
My more pragmatic approach is to first reduce CO2 as much as we can (by TEMPORARILY going to natural gas is necessary), then ELIMINATE CO2 production by TEMPORARILY going to nuclear – to give us breathing space to get all the renewables and balancing options in place (still assuming these don’t become supplanted by a more cost-effectiove option).
We do have to be realistic about timelines – I’m thinking you have never travelled – the World is a HUGE place – the World has IMMENSE numbers of people in it – changes are simply just not going to happen at the “flick of a switch”.
Ian Thompson (Re your comments at June 19, 2019 at 11:48 am)
You say:
“I am certainly NOT at all anti-renewable – I have no idea where you got that from”
How about this comment of yours earlier:
“Sorry Geoff – no matter how hard you wish for and pray for a fully renewables energy economy, I still doubt I’ll see that in my lifetime – it will take too long to install the millions upon millions of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries, and hundreds of transmission lines and hydro plants needed to make these effective. Plus, these will take out only about 1% of the world’s present CO2 production from fossil fuel use (the other 2% from agricultural and other non-electricity sources). Grand view, but I believe TOTALLY unrealistic.”
It seems rather a defeatist attitude to me. Where do you get the 1% figure from? Is that from Bjorn Lomborg?
Yet the LUT/EWG study says it can be done by 2050 and will be cheaper than the existing system – all that’s missing is a lack of political will.
See: http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf
You say:
“I certainly AM aware of Lazard’s report – but you still DO have to include balancing costs and PV/Wind “spill” into the equation – not just look at the instantaneous peak power of any technology.”
It appears you have forgotten (or didn’t see) my earlier comment to you here:
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/powering-finland-nuclear-renewables/#comment-447646
Per the Professor Blakers YouTube video that is included in my comment:
“The estimated additional (upper bound) balancing cost is $25/MWh for 100% renewables.”. Did you not see that? Or have you forgotten it?
You also say:
“I just don’t think we will be able to manufacture and install 100’s of millions of solar panels, batteries, hydro, transmission lines, etc., within the timeframe you are suggesting – no matter what the will.”
Are you an expert in this complex field? Do you spend your professional life engaged in this technology area? If not, then I suggest you are just expressing an uninformed opinion, like billions of other people that have no expertise. I make no claim to be an expert in this area – I’m deferring to what the professionals in this area are saying and it appears compelling to me.
IMO, if renewables can’t work then humanity is stuffed – the evidence I see is a post- ‘peak oil’ and post- ‘peak gas’ world will likely emerge very soon (i.e. 2020s) and we will likely revert back to a pre-industrial agrarian age from a lack of energy, with a drop in population probably below 1 billion before this century ends, if we can’t rapidly reduce our dependency on oil and gas – that is if dangerous climate change doesn’t hit us. There’s also a risk of nuclear war as nations fight over dwindling resources.
There are multiple independent studies looking into this area of energy supply and transmission technologies – you appear to be dismissing them all – based on what exactly? It seems everyone’s a critic, but few have the relevant knowledge and judgement.
Hi, wondering if someone could advise if this summary from Peter Farley, a fellow of the Australian Institution of Engineers, is broadly accurate. The nuclear figure is accurate, not sure about the others. Peter writes: “As for nuclear the 2,200 MW Plant Vogtle is costing US$25 billion plus financing costs, insurance and long term waste storage. … For the full cost of US$30 billion, we could build 7,000 MW of wind, 7,000 MW of tracking solar, 10,000 MW of rooftop solar, 5,000 MW of pumped hydro and 5,000 MW of batteries. … That is why nuclear is irrelevant in Australia. It has nothing to do with greenies, it’s just about cost and reliability.”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/how-did-wind-and-solar-perform-in-the-recent-heat-wave-40479/
Hi Jim
As a ballpark figure that’s about correct. Especially considering the new Vogtle reactors won’t come online for 2 and 3 years.
Thanks Ronald! Here’s the recent experience with nuclear power in north America and western Europe:
— V.C. Summer project in South Carolina (2 x AP1000 reactors) abandoned after expenditure of at least A$12.8 billion. Westinghouse filed for bankruptcy and parent company Toshiba almost went bankrupt as well. Westinghouse and Toshiba have joined the growing number of companies that will no longer take on the risks of large reactor construction projects.
— Vogtle project in US state of Georgia (2 x AP1000 reactors): cost estimate has doubled to A$40 billion and will increase further, and the project might yet be abandoned.
— UK: 3 of 6 proposed reactor projects have been abandoned (Moorside, Wylfa, Oldbury), two remain in limbo and Hinkley Point C is proceeding at an estimated cost of A$40 billion for two EPR reactors. Lifetimes subsidies estimated at £30‒50+ billion for Hinkley Point.
— UK Wylfa (Wales) project: Hitachi abandoned the project despite offers from UK government to take a one third equity stake in the project; to consider providing all of the required debt financing; and to consider providing a Contract for Difference to the project with a strike price expected to be about £75 per megawatt hour.
— France and Finland – EPR reactors, nearly 10 years behind schedule, 3 times over-budget, latest estimates A$16‒20 billion for each reactor.
Well, if you can REALLY buy all of the wind, solar, pumped hydro, and batteries for the same amount as the Vogtle’s US$30 billion, things look more than rosy.
My calculations using a 33% capacity factor for wind (on the day I looked, it was closer to 22% – but the writers stated that 30-35% was more normal):
https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy
Used 20% factor for rooftop PV, as my own installation is well placed, and in a good Zone and gets 18% – is probably above average.
Used 35% estimate for tracking solar – as it cannot really work at night, not much just after dawn and before dusk, and clouds will sometimes intervene.
I’ve allowed for 45% of the energy produced to then do a return trip through the pumped hydro and battery storage, with a 15% loss amounting to 458 MW of loss (you could use a different figure, at your discretion – but these would often be used at nightime or in poor weather, when wind may shut down due to excessive windspeed – but won’t change the outcome much).
So, my calculations suggest an actual average of 6,325 MW from the alternative system – I’m assuming there will be enough storage, but feel this may be a little marginal at times – I guess the “mix” could be re-jigged.
Compared to 1,980 MW nuclear – sounds like a slam-dunk.
All depends if you can REALLY buy all the systems for an equivalent price.
And, we will continue to burn toxic coal until it is all in place?
Aaaargh!
Jim – we’ve been sold a pup.
The result of my calculations using the Votgle cost seemed too good to be true – here was me wondering if Peter Farley’s purchase of all that renewables could REALLY be done for the cost of Votgle – but now I see units 1 & 2 started running in 1989 at a cost of US$8.87 billion – which is a lot less than $34 billion.
He is talking about the cost for planned units 3 & 4, which has certainly had it’s share of (financial) problems – so is more likely an “outlier”.
Olkiluota cost $4.8 billion for units 1 & 2 (1,770 MW), so very much less than Votgle.
So – I don’t think you’d really have the money to buy so much on the list.
Also – with 24,000 MW of generating capacity, I don’t think a total of 10,000 MW of storage is anywhere near enough to cover a few cloudy days and long term lower-than-average wind speeds. c.f. home systems might use 12 kWhr for a 5 kW PV system.
So, I don’t think the comparison should be made, between an outlier cost, and a system that is below par.
Thanks Ian. Vogtle 3&4 is comparable to all recent experience in the US and western Europe:
— V.C. Summer project in South Carolina (2 x AP1000 reactors) abandoned after expenditure of at least A$12.8 billion. Westinghouse filed for bankruptcy and parent company Toshiba almost went bankrupt as well. Westinghouse and Toshiba have joined the growing number of companies that will no longer take on the risks of large reactor construction projects.
— Vogtle project in US state of Georgia (2 x 1.1 GW AP1000 reactors): cost estimate has doubled to A$40 billion and will increase further, and the project might yet be abandoned.
— UK: 3 of 6 proposed reactor projects have been abandoned (Moorside, Wylfa, Oldbury), two remain in limbo and Hinkley Point C is proceeding at an estimated cost of A$40 billion for two EPR reactors (1.6 GW each). Lifetimes subsidies estimated at £30‒50+ billion for Hinkley Point.
— UK Wylfa (Wales) project: Hitachi abandoned the project despite offers from UK government to take a one third equity stake in the project; to consider providing all of the required debt financing; and to consider providing a Contract for Difference to the project with a strike price expected to be about £75 per megawatt hour.
— France (Flamanville) and Finland (Olkiluoto) – EPR reactors (1.6 GW each), nearly 10 years behind schedule, 3 times over-budget, latest estimates A$16‒20 billion for each reactor.
Hi Jim
Fair enough. But do we know the reason for the cost of nuclear blowing out by a factor of about 10 in recent years?
Seems to me that there must be some other factors in play – after all, the US alone has had about 30-odd much cheaper plants in operation, displacing absolutely vast quantites of coal CO2 and other nasty emissions, for some 20-40 years now.
Could action groups be intentionally prolonging our use of coal – ignoring the impact on climate?
Ian Thompson,
You say:
“Could action groups be intentionally prolonging our use of coal – ignoring the impact on climate?”
Do you mean ‘astroturfing’ groups supported and funded by coal boosters doing their best to prolong the use of coal? I have no doubt that has been happening for decades. “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” show includes a video segment on 12 Aug 2018 that did an amusing (but also serious) take-down on Astroturfing.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing
Ian, FYI, there are now quite a few recent extensive comparative energy technology studies publicly available.
The CSIRO and AEMO published their collaborative report “GenCost 2018”, in the week before Christmas 2018, comparing various electricity generator technologies (including nuclear SMRs) for Australia.
See my comment: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/fuel-efficiency-standards/#comment-442741
IMO, the CSIRO/AEMO study is excellent work, as are others’ works (like Lazard, BNEF, and LUT/EWG).
See: https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf
Also: https://reneweconomy.com.au/age-of-cheap-coal-power-is-over-for-australia-says-bnef-31415/
Also: http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf
Even the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) own recent assessment (Sep 2018) says: “Nuclear power’s electricity generating capacity risks shrinking in the coming decades as ageing reactors are retired and the industry struggles with reduced competitiveness, according to a new IAEA report.”
See: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/new-iaea-energy-projections-see-possible-shrinking-role-for-nuclear-power
As for the additional costs of ‘firming’ intermittent wind and solar in the Australian context, may I suggest you also see the ARENA commissioned report “Comparison of Dispatchable Renewable Electricity Options: Technologies for an orderly transition” by Keith Lovegrove et al., dated October 2018.
See: https://arena.gov.au/projects/dispatchable-renewable-electricity-options/
I also recommend you view the YouTube video (linked below at the end of this comment) of Professor Andrew Blakers giving a keynote presentation at the 2017 CURF Annual Forum on “Pumped hydro storage and 100% renewable electricity”. Blakers and his ANU team won the 2018 NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Eureka Prize for Environmental Research. IMO, they certainly deserved it.
See: https://australianmuseum.net.au/get-involved/eureka-prizes/2018-eureka-prize-winners/
From about time interval 23:56 (in the YouTube video below), a graph titled “Cost of hourly balancing” is shown. The x-axis is the percentage of renewable energy fraction in the NEM, and the y-axis is the additional cost of balancing the NEM in $/MWh. The estimated additional (upper bound) balancing cost is $25/MWh for 100% renewables. Also see the bar chart at around time interval 26:30.
Hi Jim
I’ve just been on a website – that suggests the construction time for Westinghouse designed AP1000’s should be 36 months!
There just has to be something going on – nuclear plant used to be able to be constructed for a reasonably competitive cost and in a relatively short timeframe – now, with all the advances of Computer-Aided Design, CAD machining centres, vast improvements in numerical calculations, etc., we take forever and cost a mint.
BTW – I do find it “fake”, when some people compare the “generation capacity” and capital cost of nuclear, which will run for 60 years at 90% capacity rate, with rooftop solar at 18% capacity rate that must be replaced every 25 years, and needs batteries replaced every 10 years to provide functional equivalence.
Should be mentioned that the Olkiluoto EPR reactor is a First-Of-A-Kind (FOAK) build, so of course it will have cost/time overruns. The third to be built cost $7.5B and is already complete.
High costs and long lead times are commonplace for FOAKs, and they often apply to all energy generation types (including solar).
“My ability to not argue about something solely based on my feelings and being content to wait until I have real evidence is a superpower of mine.”
It really, really, is!
Even just mining radioactive materials, let alone refining them then using them for other purposes has huge risks as this 2013 article in the SMH shows:
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/radioactive-spill-in-kakadu-stirs-rage-20131208-2yzee.html
An estimated 1.4 million litres of radioactive slurry burst the mine’s Leach Tank 1 and spilled out.
The Ranger mine, operated by Energy Resources Australia (ERA) in the middle of Kakadu National Park at the time already had a history of 120 spills.
We don’t seem to have learned anything at all from such events. There’s still unresolved ‘debate’ going on about storing the world’s nuclear waste in the outback and getting paid for doing so, or centralizing all of Australia’s radioactive waste at facilities located in suburbs of Sydney.
The reason why anyone would even bother to talk about using ‘nuclear’ generation of electricity and torturing basic principles of accounting and commonsense until those confess that it makes sense to do so completely escapes me.
The only conclusion I can reach is that at some unknown time in the past, all the lunatics escaped from their various aslyums, donned white coats to pose a ‘doctors of problem solving’ and are now secretly running the place, with world domination as their ultimate goal. There does seem to be strong circumstantial evidence on TV just at the moment that the early victims of this conspiratorial plot are around.
Also of some interest is at 2015 study by Duke University in the USA which you can find here: https://phys.org/news/2015-09-radioactive-contaminants-coal-ash.html which I’ll quote from:
“A new Duke University-led study has revealed the presence of radioactive contaminants in coal ash from all three major U.S. coal-producing basins.
The study found that levels of radioactivity in the ash were up to five times higher than in normal soil, and up to 10 times higher than in the parent coal itself because of the way combustion concentrates radioactivity.”found that levels of radioactivity in the ash were up to five times higher than in normal soil, and up to 10 times higher than in the parent coal itself because of the way combustion concentrates radioactivity.”
The same article mentions in passing the other known contaminants in coal such as selenium, lead, and arsenic
Nasty – but, no-one died! The death rate figures for nuclear – which include mining and processing, and waste disposal – are 0.04 deaths per terrawatt-hour of energy produced.
Solar – 0.4 deaths, a factor of 10 more (I’ve said 100 before – my bad)
Wind – 0.15 deaths, a better factor of 3.75 greater than nuclear.
Coal – 161 deaths per terrawatt-hour, over 4,000 times more than nuclear, and we are still using it!
I think the safety argument against nuclear is specious – it is the safest technology there is for producing power.
I think “the long time to construct” is also specious – if economically viable, government should have committed 10-15 years ago, when we would now be largely carbon free – but the Greens hijacked this opportunity.
However, the economic argument is far more real – if nuclear is really uneconomic, then we have to decide if we pay anyway in order to lower carbon emissions, or otherwise feel certain renewables can be implemented in a sufficiently short time-frame, and at a low enough cost – it’s that simple.
The flies in the ointment are: waste disposal and accidents.
When I was living in the UK 20 years ago I read an item in the Observer that waste from Windscale was being stored in drums, some outside, others in tin sheds, that were beginning to show signs of deterioration. Scientists were worried that a runaway reaction may occur. How is waste sequestered safely and cheaply, certainly not in drums at the bottom of the ocean as has happened ?
Look at Fukushima. A complete disaster for Japan not that the Japanese govt. will ever admit it. And that is only one example. You can be sure that in the future there will be more catastrophes of this magnitude. Humans are greedy, well the ones that are on the gravy train when it comes to nuclear power, and have an unerring ability for laziness and cutting corners when critical procedures need to be observed.
Hi David
Are you sure you’ve got your facts accurate?
The 2011 disaster in Japan was the Tsunami that killed 20,000 people – and also resulted in causing the Fukushima reactor melt-down.
The Fukushima disaster has resulted in great disruption, no doubt, but only 1 death. Hell, the 737 Max8 crashes killed 346 people! Are you now going to suggest we ban air travel? Even Chernobyl only had 38 deaths – but this was barely a Commercial reactor (more a military one). Noone died in the Three Mile Island accidental radioactive gas release in the USA.
The data I have is that the fatality rate for Nuclear – INCLUDING the mining of uranium, refining, and decommissioning – is 0.04 deaths per terrawatt-hour of electicity produced. Whereas, the Solar PV death rate is 0.4 deaths per terrawatt-hour of energy produced – some 100 times greater than nuclear.
(Or, nuclear is 100 times safer than Solar).
I don’t know why the rate for Solar is so high – perhaps it is because you’d need about 50,000,000 panels to replace the energy production of only 1 decent 3 GW nuclear plant (you can calculate this out yourself) – so the risks of falling off roof accidents and electrocution are so much increased.
Coal is the thing we should be getting rid of – death rate 161 deaths per terrawatt-hour – even if this means going nuclear – which will also largely eliminate CO2 production. Finn is correct!
Mercury has been detected in mother’s milk in the USA – getting there from the fallout of burning coal. Mercury has been implicated in the reduced intellectual development of children in the USA.
I note you didn’t do a comparison on the basis of windpower between Finland and Oz.
ps… The key being the NON-storage of power requirement.
Hi Jack
I’m not following your point?
Wind shows hugh daily, seasonal, and annual variation over massive geographical areas – so using wind, how would you plan to avoid storage requirements?
Finland has access to large dispatchable power sources – hydro-energy – can’t really compare with much of Oz?
This is in part about national security and gaining energy supply independence in an uncertain energy world so the more options we have the better. Energy supply across hostile borders would be a significant subtle weakness in case of hostilities as the Nazis found out in WW2.
Distributed wind and solar would certainly be a lot safer from enemy attack than nuclear concentrated in a couple of locations.
Hi guys, just thinking outside the box, how much research is done into tidal generation? After all, for renewable energy, it would have to be the most reliable source, with two low tides and two high tides each and every day. How difficult is it to produce? Especially since there are such huge tidal differences there.
Tidal energy is much more expensive than wind with optimistic estimates generally being at least 10 cents per kilowatt-hour. Part of the reason is because the marine environment is hard on machinery. But if conditions in Finland are naturally suitable maybe it would make sense for it to be part of the mix.
Hi Ronald
I’d think not so much more expensive than PV & Wind, at around 7-11 cent/kwh when balancing costs are included?
Interestingly, I have seen operating costs figures for US nuclear (presumable after the capital costs have been recovered), of US 2.4 cents/kwh ~ A 3.5 c/kwh? It would seem worth keeping these going, if they can continue to deliver at that rate! Several plants are now being re-licensed to a 60-year life.
I often think people get confused between incremental energy costs, and whole-of-life energy costs (when maintenance and replacements have to be factored in). Obviously, PV has near-zero operating costs – but if batteries are used, these may need to be replaced every 10 years.
Geoff Miell has sent me some very useful references – I’ll thank him here (no replay button). The cost of balancing for 100% renewables is stated at about 2.5 c/kwh – which is a lot lower than I’d thought it would be.
Perhaps I’m just afflicted with a ‘I hate mushroom clouds’ syndrome after watching too many re-runs of ‘Dr Strangelove’ and need to see a counsellor, but to say ‘no-one died’ (as the result of a nuclear waste spill) and to therefore imply that the ruination of hundreds of square kilometres of land is of little consequence, is a stretch of credibility that even Lewis Carroll, author of ‘Alice in Wonderland’, would find hard to achieve.
Hi Des
Yes, I think you should see a counsellor to deal with your “bleeding heart” and help improve your credibility – of the very few number of nuclear reactor accidents that have ever happened in the entire world, none have resulted in a mushroom cloud – nor would they, the physics simply doesn’t match up.
Evidently, I have VASTLY more concern about human lives and the environment than you – for a person who is happy to mouth off, your extreme level of gross ignorance about this is absolutely astounding.
Did you know that the 98 commercial nuclear reactors operating in the USA produced 807 TWhr of energy in 2018? – because you are possibly not well equipped to understand this number, that is 807 followed by 9 zeros worth of kWhrs of energy – which is an awful lot. Not only that, but those 98 reactors have been producing high levels of energy since at least 2001. I’ll provide a discount on this rate, since reactor utilisation has not always been as high, but even then, this corresponds to about 10,800 TWhr over the last 18 years.
Now, 1.142 kg of CO2 will be produced to make 1 kWhr of electrical energy from burning hard coal – probably significantly more in fact, as steam plant efficiencies are most likely better now than previously – and sometimes lower grade coal is burned, producing proportionally more CO2.
So, these 98 reactors have displaced 12,000,000,000 TONNES of CO2 by my calculations, that would have otherwise been emitted into the atmoshere by coal plant, potentially resulting in the “ruination” of the ENTIRE PLANET.
Not only that, but using the published fatality rate from coal, this has resulted in the saving of 1,728,000 human lives.
That is just for the 98 USA reactors – as far as I can see, there are presently 449 reactors operating worldwide – 4.58 times as many, so the numbers above could be multiplied up, for much greater impact on the saving the planet and human lives.
Now, I agree the Ranger spill was nasty, and should never have happened, and lessons need to be learned, but the above makes your tears for the (temporary) possible (not confirmed) damage to some scrub in the desert outback seem to pale into insignificance, doesn’t it? By the way, it was not a nuclear waste spill (implying from a reactor) – rather a processing spill of sulphuric acid combined with radioactive slurry resulting from a tank rupture. I don’t think you have any evidence that it has resulted in the “ruination of hundreds of square kilometres of land” – methinks a bit of an exaggeration.
Anyway, toughen up and get over it – the polluted area will recover in a relatively short time – reports state that previously endangered species are now absolutely thriving around Chernobyl, and that was a release of high-grade radiation over a large area – nothing like the Ranger tank rupture.
I do not know why nuclear plant construction costs have increased by an order of magnitude in recent times – but am concerned that approvals are being delayed and deferred more by the ignorance and shallow thinking of the technically illiterate, leading to delays and cost blow-outs – without any understanding of the true consequences of otherwise staying with coal.
I’m ok with nuclear, but if the costs are genuinely too much (not being artificially boosted by morons), then so be it – although I do feel we will have to accept some modest energy cost increases, in order to save the world.
So far in the West, renewables have only increased our energy prices – I suspect by forcing our dispatchable plant to run inefficiently “off design”.
I suspect, Des, that you are much more of the problem, than the solution.
Hi Geoff
Well – I do happen to have some project management experience.
But my reading of what is going on with opposition to renewables in Germany, nuclear reactors still being built wordwide, very large resource industries investing in NG, UK burning NG to make 59% of their electricity, USA extending some existing nuclear plant life from 40 years our to 60 – the list
goes on – makes me conclude some experts other than your own are aware of the need to deal with transition issues.
Even Finn appears to be saying nuclear will reduce transition CO2 – that is what got Ron’s “goat”.
Yes, I was cognisant of the stated $25/MWhr balancing cost – and most of the other points had not been “forgotten”.
Again, you’ve gotten the wrong end of the stick – my comments about renewables was trying to indicate to you than building millions of solar panels, and all the other things needed to make them work, will take quite some considerable time – not that we shouldn’t go that way.
I think we will just have to agree to differ – I’m concerned your over-optimism is taking us done the path of producing far more CO2 in the interim, transition period, than that of a more balanced approach. My approach allows very rapid initial reducions of CO2, without all the new coal stations that are being proposed to ensure continuity of supply and reasonable cost. I am by no means alone in this concern.
BTW Geoff, I got the 1% figure from a very reputable website – whenever I mention something that doesn’t agree with your position, you seem to think I am making it up.
Please remember, there are 3 truths – your truth, my truth, and the actual truth. Please don’t take all green speak as gospel – I am an engineer, and have seen to much rubbish spouted, and so much deliberately misleading information presented, that I wish far more people had a better education.
Greens should be supportive of nuclear – especially as it saves more lives even compared to solar, and stops CO2 emissions to boot – where are their heads at?
Hi Ian,
One point that’s relevant is that of ‘lead times’. A household roof-top PV system can be installed in a single day, and once in, can pretty much start generating ‘usuable’ electricity virtually straight-away. Every single kwh generated from that point on starts having ‘positive’ effects – demand on the grid is reduced, less CO2 emissions etc etc. Sure, a single household is only a tiny amount in the scheme of things relative to the grid as a whole but it all adds up overall quite quickly, as Synergy in WA is finding out.
Similarly, with proper planning, large scale solar assembly and connection to the grid can also be done quite quickly – the time scale is days in some cases or maybe a few weeks for the really large solar farms, not years.
Ian Thompson,
Burning more natural gas means more CO2 emissions. Humanity needs to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and we need to start by 2020 and reduce to 50% by 2030, or we risk extinction by the end of this century, or at the very least drastically curtail civilisation, due to dangerous climate change.
I’ve said on numerous occasions here that I see evidence of a looming global post- ‘peak oil’ and post- ‘peak gas’ world arriving (likely in the 2020s) – as indicated before, read my Submission (#9) to the Australian Senate Fair Dinkum Power inquiry.
Unless humanity finds affordable, abundant alternative energy supplies to replace/displace declining petroleum oil and natural gas supplies (and quickly) our civilisation will experience increasing scarcity of critical energy supplies. No energy (particularly petroleum-based transport energy) means very quickly no food – no food, then we starve and die. Relying on gas as a bridging energy supply is IMO foolhardy – we need to jump straight to renewables (that’s the ultimate goal anyway), and do it quickly from both an energy security and climate change risk management perspective.
It seems to me you appear to ignore this critical aspect (as do most other people) – you seem to assume global oil and gas production will continue at current rates and will go on long after you are dead – that’s not what the data in the latest BPSRoWE-2019 and other data I see appears to indicate. There are indications global diesel fuel production may have already peaked – that’s disturbingly critical for transport and agriculture.
You say:
“BTW Geoff, I got the 1% figure from a very reputable website – whenever I mention something that doesn’t agree with your position, you seem to think I am making it up.”
If the website is “reputable” then please provide a link to it so everyone can see it (if they wish) and form a view as to whether it is “reputable” – otherwise we can only take your word for it.
When I make statements here I usually provide links to references that support my statements so that others can make their own judgments about the veracity of the information (and whether it may be “coloured” in perspective). I’m not hiding anything – you don’t seem to be as forthcoming about the sources of information you are relying upon.
You also say:
“I am an engineer, and have seen to much rubbish spouted, and so much deliberately misleading information presented, that I wish far more people had a better education.”
I concur with that statement – so it appears we agree on some things.
You end with:
“Greens should be supportive of nuclear – especially as it saves more lives even compared to solar, and stops CO2 emissions to boot – where are their heads at?”
Perhaps it’s because nuclear fission technologies:
1. Are substantially far less economically competitive compared with renewables;
2. Take far too long to deploy compared with renewables (so it is not a solution for rapid reduction in GHG emissions – more than a decade to build that humanity cannot afford before there’s any effect);
3. Thorium-based energy is not a mature technology, so it cannot be relied upon to make a rapid transition. That leaves only uranium/plutonium-based energy which is much less abundant compared with thorium resources;
4. Are not long-term sustainable because uranium and thorium resources are finite;
5. Have a toxic waste problem that will far outlast any energy benefits gained.
Perhaps you are unwilling to accept the substantial negatives concerning nuclear fission energy?
So, you disagree with Finn’s observation that CO2 emissions would be a lot greater without nuclear?
Yes, I do accept there are negatives concerning nuclear – as there are for ALL energy generation technologies – I fuuly accept that nuclear will have to stand on its own merits – I just happen to think we shouldn’t “throw the baby out with the bath water”.
You seem to have forgotten we (the Royal we, the entire planet) is presently:
1. Still burning coal, and still building brand new coal-fired power stations.
2. Still building brand new nuclear power stations – and those, together with the 449 reactors in use, will very substantially reduce CO2 emissions, and also reduce the number of new coal stations required to be built.
To their credit, China are about to trial the replacement of coal boilers in one of their thermal plants, with a nuclear heat source (retaining the existing turbines, alternators, switchgear, transmission lines, etc.).
BTW, some time ago a correspondent questioned the Worldwide CO2 effect of Australia “sinking beneath the waves”. Ron’s immediate response was “3%”. I had some doubt about this so did some research – I did find the 3% figure, probably at the same source Ron was using – probably a greenie site, because I did check the source credibility. But, on the same site I then found the 3% figure was for ALL sources of CO2 – including for example, human and animal respiration (surely you don’t expect to curtail that!). Bottom line, the contribution due to fossil fuel burning was only fractionaly greater than 1% – this on the same site.
Geoff, I think we both agree on where we want to get to – we just disagree on the implementation of Transition – i.e. how we get there.
For my part, I’m ok with nuclear – so long as the cost of implementation is not too great, and so long as the costs are not being artificially escalated by irrational, and sometimes outright lying, obstructionists.
Australian is not an island (well, yes it is – but you know what I mean). The entire world appears to be using NG and nuclear as a transition measures – to great CO2-reducing impact compared with coal at the present time – why not Australia as well?
Ian Thompson,
I see you still haven’t provided a reference to the “1% figure from a very reputable website”. Are you reluctant to reveal your sources because it would expose the biases of them? Is it an anti-renewables website?
You say:
“Yes, I do accept there are negatives concerning nuclear…”
Do you? I think you have been consistently dismissing them here at this weblog as being irrelevant.
You said in an earlier comment above (at June 17, 2019 at 5:36 pm):
“I would much prefer a nuclear plant, with far great safety, far less fatalities, and near zero CO2 – and would be willing to pay more for this, so long as it isn’t excessively expensive.”
Ian, what’s your definition of “excessively expensive”? Double current prices? Triple?
Per CSIRO/AEMO’s “GenCost 2018”, in “Figure 4-2: Calculated LCOE by technology and category for 2020”, Nuclear (SMR) is A$250-325/MWh,
compared with wind with 6h PHES firming at A$75-110/MWh;
and solar-PV with 6h PHES firming at A$70-105/MWh
(I’m estimating these figures by eye from the graph).
Nuclear is double to triple the cost of firmed renewables. Do you think that is not “excessively expensive”? I think it is. Or are you just dismissing the CSIRO/AEMO figures because they are inconvenient for your narrative?
Yet there are people that are apparently less fortunate than you that are currently struggling to pay their energy bills and going without heating and cooling and reportedly suffering from hyperthermia in winter and heat stress in summer.
See: https://www.2gb.com/podcast/an-alarming-number-of-adults-are-being-treated-for-hypothermia/
You are promoting nuclear energy that evidence/data indicates will inevitably raise energy prices further and hurt these people (and more who are barely coping now). What I think you are suggesting is “I’m alright Jack, I can afford higher energy prices, but bugger those many poor people who can’t and won’t be able to afford the higher energy prices from nuclear energy”. IMO, you are apparently wilfully ignorant of the real issues, and lack empathy for those less fortunate than you. For what? What’s your fascination/obsession with nuclear? What are your reasons to dismiss the substantial negatives? Is the hidden agenda to lead to acquisition of nuclear weapons? That’s the only reason I can see for pursuing the nuclear-fission power path here in Australia.
I repeat, even the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) own recent assessment (Sep 2018) says: “Nuclear power’s electricity generating capacity risks shrinking in the coming decades as ageing reactors are retired and the industry struggles with reduced competitiveness, according to a new IAEA report.”
See: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/new-iaea-energy-projections-see-possible-shrinking-role-for-nuclear-power
You say:
“1. Still burning coal, and still building brand new coal-fired power stations.”
Per “Boom and Bust 2019” report, published Mar 2019, Figure 3 shows in all, net new global coal power capacity was 19 GW in 2018—the slowest rate of growth on record, and the fourth straight year of decline. If trends continue the global coal fleet capacity will begin to decline, possibly as soon as 2020 (next year). And if that happens, then coal demand will decline as well – less generator capacity to burn coal.
See: https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BoomAndBust_2019_r6.pdf
You say:
“BTW, some time ago a correspondent questioned the Worldwide CO2 effect of Australia “sinking beneath the waves”. Ron’s immediate response was “3%”. I had some doubt about this so did some research – I did find the 3% figure…”
Was it “3%”? Where’s your reference? Are you getting it from a climate science denier website? Why won’t you reveal the origin of your source material? What are you hiding, Ian? You seem to be pushing natural gas and nuclear but spreading doubts about renewables – are you a closet anti-renewables devotee/disciple? It looks like it to me.
This is what a former coal, oil and gas senior executive Ian Dunlop stated in his op-ed on May 2:
“Conventional wisdom has it that Australia is such a small player in the emission stakes, our domestic emissions being only 1.3% of the global total, that anything we do domestically, such as Adani, is irrelevant to addressing the global problem. Utter nonsense. As LNG exports increase, we are about to become the fourth largest carbon polluter in the world when fossil fuel exports are included, as they must be given that the climate impact rebounds on us irrespective of the point of consumption. What Australia does matters where climate change is concerned.”
See: https://johnmenadue.com/ian-dunlop-stopping-adani-is-a-national-necessity-economically-financially-and-for-our-survival/
And here’s what climate scientist David Karoly said on ABC Q&A on Monday (Jun 17):
“I AM a climate scientist, and Alan Jones is wrong. And the reason he’s wrong is that, we know that, yes, the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere – essentially the carbon dioxide concentration now – is 400 parts per million. And this was the one thing he was reasonably accurate on – that that corresponds to…about 0.04% of the whole of the atmosphere is made up of carbon dioxide. All his other numbers were wrong. Because we know that that carbon dioxide concentration, 100 years ago, was about 280 parts per million, or 0.028%. But it’s gone from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million. It’s grown 120 parts per million, or about 40%, and that 40% increase is due to human activity. We know that for absolute certain. So, he’s wrong about only 3% due to human activity. It’s 40%. And of that 40%, he’s right – Australians have contributed about 1.5%. Now, that sounds like a small amount, but, actually, Australia only makes up 0.3% of the global population, and we’re contributing 1.5%, roughly, of the increase in greenhouse gases. So, is it fair that 0.3% of the global population has contributed 1.5%? We’ve contributed much more than our fair share, if it was equally distributed around the world, emissions of greenhouse gases, contributing to this global warming increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.”
See: https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/2019-17-06/11191192
It seems to me you continue to regurgitate the pro-nuclear and pro-fossil fuels messages, ignoring or downplaying the substantial (and dangerous) negatives.
This one has all the figures on recent nuclear new build in north America and western Europe, with references:
Nuclear power exits Australia’s energy debate, enters culture wars
Tony Abbott ‒ and some others on the far-right ‒ would undoubtedly oppose nuclear power if Labor and the ‘green left’ supported it and they would be pointing to the A$14‒24 billion price-tags for new reactors in western Europe and north America.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/nuclear-power-exits-australias-energy-debate-enters-culture-wars-47702/
Hi Jim
Interesting read. Would Reneweconomy be a reliable, non-biased source?
I’m not particularly a nuclear advocate – just interested in a rational and non-emotional review of ALL electricity-producing options. I do understand the negatives of nuclear, having studied nuclear engineering many, many years ago – however I do find much of the rhetoric grossly overstated.
Yea, the costs do appear to take it out of contention – as I’ve stated before, I’m only concerned that slow construction rates and recent high cost escalations may be more a function of fear-mongering obstructionism, than true techical issues.
Not directed at you.
As I have said before, let each technology rest on its merits – it’s not as if PV and wind power don’t also have their negatives. If nuclear doesn’t pass the test, so be it – but I will never accede to a half-wit, bow, and touch my forelock, just because they wish to blindly follow their own, uneducated belief system, and demand I should do the same.
Geoff
Your last statement says it all for me.
You haven’t comprehended a single thing I’ve stated, return with blatantly false statements, and accuse me of hiding something. Tosser.
You could have looked this up – not the Environmental site I had looked at, but let’s not quibble – 1.3% it is.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_Australia
You’d be better placed applying your passion to the 98.7% for more impact.
3% was Ronald’s figure – it’s on his blog – why don’t you look it up, rather than accuse me of hiding something.
You appear to have deliberately taken my comment about preferring nuclear over coal completely out of context. Would you then, prefer to stay with coal? OF COURSE the decision would need to be taken, after weighing up the pro’s and con’s of competing technologies. Your blind, bow and touch the forelock faith prevents you from appreciating the bigger picture.
I have concerns about your maths and logic capacities too. Is it too hard to understand that rather than keep producing CO2 emissions from burning coal to provide dispatchable power while renewables are being manufactured, built, and firmed as quickly as possible, a better option might, possibly, be to TEMPORARILY burn NG? Have a look at the following:
https://www.ntnews.com.au/news/national/the-gamechanging-20-billion-solar-farm-project-planned-for-the-northern-territory-plus-jobs-in-sa/news-story/51b11a054a9839da7ec750fb76d30638
10GW installed capacity, cost $20 billion, expected completion 2030.
Knowing how these things tend to be exaggerated, I’d expect the capacity factor might only be 25%, or less. So, 2.5GW average power. Seems to be approaching the present cost of nuclear, and will have to be replaced when the panels wear out. Granted, a lot of that cost is for balancing, and buikding a hydrogen plant, I think.
The point is, this is going to take >10 years to operational – and represents only 1 project. I stand by my 4-5 decades before we can get away from all fossil fuel burning – so what do you suggest for energy continuity in the meantime?
I do have rooftop PV, but take issue with you that I’m someway “entitled”, and don’t give a toss about poor people. You have no righr to make those type of statements about me – you have absolutely no idea of my background.
Perhaps you should try to be a little less hysterical about nuclear – I dismiss much of the uneducated fear of nuclear, because as a technical professional I know something about these, and in the Australian context they are very often grossly overstated. Even our Chief Scientist has stated nuclesr may well be part of the mix – are you putting yourself beyond him? Like I’ve said before but you have failed to comprehend, if nuclear is really too expensive, not just artificially escalated, then so be it – we’ll just have to use NG, TEMPORARILY.
You clearly know little about the issues of Transition.
Ian Thompson,
You say:
“You haven’t comprehended a single thing I’ve stated, return with blatantly false statements, and accuse me of hiding something.”
Oh, I think I comprehend very well what you are up to. It’s not just the statements you have directed at me, but the totality of your statements here on this weblog. I think there’s a consistent pattern of you downplaying/ignoring the negatives around nuclear energy technologies, promoting the consumption of more natural gas, spreading doubts about the efficacy of renewable energy technologies and denigrating/dismissing organisations/people providing inconvenient information that contradicts your narrative.
You say:
“You could have looked this up – not the Environmental site I had looked at…”
So, Ian, why won’t you reveal “the Environmental site” that you “had looked at”? Something to hide, Ian? Would that reveal too much about your biases?
You say:
“You appear to have deliberately taken my comment about preferring nuclear over coal completely out of context. Would you then, prefer to stay with coal?”
No context issue – I’m highlighting compelling evidence/data (with links) that contradicts your narrative. Your comments are generally devoid of references/links. And no, as I’ve stated on numerous occasions: that humanity must leave COAL, PETROLEUM OIL and FOSSIL NATURAL GAS (i.e. ALL FOSSIL FUELS), before 2050, to mitigate dangerous climate change. It seems to me by your question you are stuck with the mindset that only coal and nuclear are the only options for reliable power – they’re not, as Professor Andrew Blakers has outlined with pumped-hydro firming for renewables – but you seem to dismiss this entirely.
You say”
“I have concerns about your maths and logic capacities too.”
Ian, now who’s having a comprehension problem? It’s not my maths. It’s not my data. I’m referring to multiple examples of evidence/data (with links to them). So, if you have a problem with the maths and logic, take it up with the authors of the references I linked to. And who are you, Ian? What’s your expertise? Perhaps you are the one with the maths and logic capacity problem? Perhaps you think you know better than them? It seems like it to me – everyone’s a critic, who think they know better than everyone else.
You say:
“I stand by my 4-5 decades before we can get away from all fossil fuel burning – so what do you suggest for energy continuity in the meantime?”
Ian, do you have children, perhaps grandchildren? If the climate science is close to the mark, then if humanity is still burning fossil fuels in 4-5 decades, then your children/grandchildren are at risk of an early death due to dangerous climate change. Do you want to play Russian roulette with their lives/futures?
Your question on energy continuity suggests you haven’t bothered to look at any of the references I’ve provided – you apparently just don’t want to know because your mind is apparently closed to the alternatives apart from nuclear and gas. Professor Andrew Blakers doesn’t see an energy continuity problem if it’s planned well (and I’ve referred to others). Planning the transition is key, but that’s unlikely when governments don’t have coherent energy and climate policies. So, until governments get their act together Australia will remain ill-prepared for an inevitable and rapid change – we are at risk of falling off the ‘energy supply cliff’ when a post- ‘peak oil’ and post- ‘peak gas’ world arrives (i.e. likely in the 2020s).
You say:
“Perhaps you should try to be a little less hysterical about nuclear – I dismiss much of the uneducated fear of nuclear, because as a technical professional I know something about these, and in the Australian context they are very often grossly overstated.”
IMO, there’s nothing “hysterical” about the compelling evidence/data from reputable sources I’ve linked to (including the nuclear industry’s own International Atomic Energy Agency). But it seems these are all “hysterical” to you – how convenient for you to just label anything that doesn’t fit in with your ‘world view’ as “hysterical” and “uneducated” and “grossly overstated”?
You say:
“Even our Chief Scientist has stated nuclesr may well be part of the mix – are you putting yourself beyond him?”
In June 2017, Dr Finkel AO, as Chair of the Expert Panel, published the “Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market: Blueprint for the Future”. On nuclear, it includes:
“In Australia, the establishment of nuclear power would require broad community consultation and the development of a social and legal licence. There is a strong awareness of the potential hazards associated with nuclear power plant operation, including the potential for the release of radioactive materials. Any development will require a significant amount of time to overcome social, legal, economic and technical barriers. [429]
Nuclear generators are synchronous generators, providing services that support power system security. Different nuclear power technologies allow application at different scales. Large, traditional nuclear power plants are limited to large-scale applications, which the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation notes makes it “difficult to envisage [traditional nuclear power plants] being established on the NEM given current grid structure”. [430]”
IMO, what was said two years ago by the Expert Panel (that included Finkel as Chair) doesn’t appear to be a ringing endorsement for nuclear for Australia then. Since then, renewable costs have declined further. So, what Finkel may have said about nuclear possibly being part of the mix here in Australia is becoming more and more remote as time passes.
Finkel’s recent focus has been on renewable hydrogen: “Hydrogen for Australia’s future: A briefing paper for the COAG Energy Council”, dated Aug 2018. Hydrogen may well surpass natural gas quickly – it needs to for humanity to rapidly reduce GHG emissions.
I certainly agree with Finkel’s statement (in response to the IPCC’s SR1.5°C report published last year):
“My purpose is to urge all decision-makers – in government, industry and the community – to listen to the science.”
Firstly Geoff – let me apologise for calling you a “tosser” – obviously I don’t know if you are or not – it’s just at the time your fabrications and falsehoods were irritating me, and I concluded at that time that you were.
Geoff – you are WRONG on almost all counts, and now I think you are more than a little paranoid. So you think “you comprehend well well what I am up to” – do you just? Let me try to set you straight.
Firstly, I have spent my entire life working and managing mostly R&D, some working in the USA – as a consequence, I have had a great deal of exposure to dealing with, analysing, and selecting all manner of technologies, methodologies, and TIMELINES. I have no, and have never had, alliances with nuclear or fossil fuel companies, and treat each and every technology on it’s merits – I am not prone to spin, selective, groupthink, confirmation, or outlier biases, but I suspect that you are.
It may come as a surprise to you, but even your love, love, love intermittent renewables have significant negatives – if you cannot see that, and cannot accept constructive criticism, then you are little more than a bigoted fool.
I am totally non-partisan, and not particularly for nor against Wind, PV, Hydro, Nuclear, Tidal, or Wave power source – but I do recognise we need to get away from fossil fuels as our end game, soonest – I take each technology on it’s merits.
Sure, I understand that nuclear appears too expensive at the moment, and maybe for ever more – but it HAS saved 12,000 million TONNES of CO2 emissions in the USA alone over the last 18 years. And maybe 1.7 million lives compared with coal What’s not to like about that? You are WRONG Geoff – nuclear has a total fatality rate about 10 times lower than PV. It is not as dangerous as you think – the technology is just not the same as an A-bomb, and Chernobyl and Fukushima were hydrogen gas explosions. Not the same thing, and not showing lukemia spikes like the A-bombs caused.
But I agree that unless it can become cost competitive, it becomes a non-starter. The fact that there are finite reserves is a red herring. YOU have fabricated my allegiance with nuclear. However, if small modular reactor prices drop like PV, then we will need to re-think the issue. If nuclear fusion becomes a future cost-effective reality, we will have to re-think that, as well.
However if they don’t, there is no contest.
Sure, Wind and PV look good as far as I can see – I’ve got rooftop PV on my own home, and it is saving me money (but also costing taxpayers some money as well – you cannot deny that). I haven’t quite worked out why our power prices keep going up here in the West, but hopefully that will soon change – do wonder if it might be because our coal generation is being heavily curtailed in favour of wind and PV (a good thing), but consequently our reduced coal-fired power is dirtier, and more expensive (due to fixed costs of production). PV prices are still falling, but they must eventually become asymptotic to a minimum limit – from my experience, installing PV is quite labour-intensive, and I would expect these labour costs to increase with time unless more automation is utilised My PV is presently “firmed” from the grid using mostly coal, and had previously been curtailed due to grid overvoltage at the times of high PV output.
I have wondered why you are persistently getting “the wrong end of the stick”. You quote my comment about fossil fuels not being totally replaced by renewables in my lifetime as being negative. Not at all – your mistake is not knowing how old I am – according the lifespan expectations, I’m unlikely to still be here in 20-25 years time. Your comment about me not caring about the “strugglers” regarding power price increased is unwarranted, and WRONG. At my mere mention of the big N word, your appeared to suffer apoplexy – and all I was wondering, was if obstructionists such as you were the root cause of the recent, sudden cost increases. Not a promotion of the technology, which has a lot going for it, and negatives, but merely wondering what would cause such a massive and sudden escalation of costs?
Your accusation that I’m negative due to saying it will take a long time to install millions of solar panels is also WRONG. From my recollection, I had calculated 52,000,000 panels need to be installed, to acheive the energy output of just 1 decent nuclear (or coal, or hydro) plant – I was not implying at any time, that we shouldn’t do this, just that it was going to take some time to do it. This is not negative, just a simple statement of fact. I simply brought up NG as a method to short-term (near IMMEDIATELY in the overall scheme of things) HALVE the quantity of CO2 emitted while renewables are put in place, with their balancing requirements. NG is good for load-following – so further benefits accrue whilst waiting for balancing to be optimised – the NG plant can be turned down to maximise CO2 emissions savings from renewbles when they are producing more, rather than have intermittents curtailed, like they have been in SA in recent history. What’s so hard to understand about that? This is what the UK are doing, what much of Europe is doing, what Japan is doing, what the USA is doing – they wish to minimise ongoing CO2 emissions, while setting up renewables.
As I’ve said before – we agree on the objective – it’s just that I don’t believe you have a credible understanding of the timelines involved. The World is increasing its consumption of NG, and that is a good thing (for the interim) because it reduces CO2 emissions compared to useing coal for dispatchable power in the meantime.
I think you need to pull your head in, and take stock of your biases.
Ian Thompson,
You say:
“Firstly Geoff – let me apologise for calling you a “tosser” – obviously I don’t know if you are or not – it’s just at the time your fabrications and falsehoods were irritating me, and I concluded at that time that you were.”
Is it really an apology when you follow up with unsubstantiated allegations of “fabrications and falsehoods”? What “fabrications and falsehoods? Please be specific.
You say:
“Geoff – you are WRONG on almost all counts, and now I think you are more than a little paranoid. So you think “you comprehend well well what I am up to” – do you just?
Ian, “WRONG” where? Please be specific – don’t be vague, generalise and continue to engage in ad hominem with words like “a little paranoid”. Deal with the specifics and argue with facts/evidence and logic. Who’s being hyperbolic and emotive here?
I’ve looked at what you have written here at this weblog and I’ve come to the conclusion (and I’ll repeat again) that it appears to me that “there’s a consistent pattern of you downplaying/ignoring the negatives around nuclear energy technologies, promoting the consumption of more natural gas, spreading doubts about the efficacy of renewable energy technologies and denigrating/dismissing organisations/people providing inconvenient information that contradicts your narrative.” That’s my opinion based on the totality of what you have written here at this weblog, nothing more.
You say:
“I am not prone to spin, selective, groupthink, confirmation, or outlier biases, but I suspect that you are.”
And yet you won’t reveal your sources of information. Why is that? Is it because that would reveal your own biases? I’m upfront about where I get my evidence/data from – why aren’t you? I’m just following what the compelling evidence/data shows me. It appears to me that you find this too confronting for your ‘world view’, and resort to “tosser” and “paranoid”, rather than look carefully with an open mind to the information presented.
For instance, your first response to Jim above (your comment at June 22, 2019 at 8:55 pm) was:
“Interesting read. Would Reneweconomy be a reliable, non-biased source?”
It says to me you are quick to judge, rather than first look at the substance of the information presented.
You then say to Jim:
“I’m not particularly a nuclear advocate – just interested in a rational and non-emotional review of ALL electricity-producing options. I do understand the negatives of nuclear, having studied nuclear engineering many, many years ago – however I do find much of the rhetoric grossly overstated.”
Ah ha, now you reveal to Jim (and everyone else) a bias towards nuclear – I think that goes a long way to explain your attitudes expressed here. Yet you erroneously allege to me that: “YOU have fabricated my allegiance with nuclear.” It looks like you have an “allegiance” with nuclear to me.
You’ve invested time studying nuclear engineering, (and if you’ve studied it, perhaps you may have spent some of your professional life in the nuclear industry in the US?), so I suspect it’s difficult for you to concede, despite all the compelling evidence/data available, that there are undeniable indications nuclear fission technologies:
1. Are substantially far less economically competitive compared with new renewables;
2. Take far too long to deploy compared with renewables (so it is not a solution for rapid reduction in GHG emissions – more than a decade to build that humanity cannot afford before there’s any effect);
3. Thorium-based energy is not a mature technology, so it cannot be relied upon to make a rapid transition. That leaves only uranium/plutonium-based energy which is much less abundant compared with thorium resources;
4. Are not long-term sustainable because uranium and thorium resources are finite;
5. Have a toxic waste problem that will far outlast any energy benefits gained.
You say:
“…but it HAS saved 12,000 million TONNES of CO2 emissions in the USA alone over the last 18 years. And maybe 1.7 million lives compared with coal What’s not to like about that?”
Show me where I’ve disputed these issues? Now who’s “got the wrong end of the stick”? Now who’s “fabricating”?
You say:
“The fact that there are finite reserves is a red herring.”
Really, Ian? So, what happens when finite nuclear fuels become scarce and unaffordable? How do nuclear reactors function without nuclear fuel, Ian? Or do you think uranium and thorium have an infinite supply here on planet Earth? What planet are you on, Ian?
You say:
“You quote my comment about fossil fuels not being totally replaced by renewables in my lifetime as being negative.”
Ah, yep. You seem to ignore that the climate scientists are telling us that humanity must start dramatically reducing our GHG emissions from 2020, reducing to 50% by 2030, and net-zero by 2050. If we don’t, the consequences are likely existential for humanity (and for many other species) before this century is over. So that means we must rapidly reduce all fossil fuel emissions – NOT JUST COAL, NOT JUST COAL & FOSSIL NATURAL GAS, but EVERY human-caused GHG. But perhaps you are a climate science denier, so there’s no apparent urgency for you? Or you think you will be dead long before the proverbial hits the fan, so you are unfussed by it all – just an academic curiosity for you perhaps? Pity your children and grandchildren (if you have any?) to bear the consequences.
You say:
“NG is good for load-following – so further benefits accrue whilst waiting for balancing to be optimised – the NG plant can be turned down to maximise CO2 emissions savings from renewbles when they are producing more, rather than have intermittents curtailed, like they have been in SA in recent history. What’s so hard to understand about that?”
What? Haven’t heard of hydro? Pumped-hydro (both on-river and off-river)? Solar-thermal with molten salt energy storage? Batteries? Supercapacitors? All are proven ‘dispatchable’ technologies to balance the ‘intermittents’ at various capacities and timescales, and the costs are quantifiable. Gas is only going to get more expensive when a post- ‘peak gas’ supply world emerges (i.e. likely in the 2020s). Ah, but perhaps you think finite gas and oil reserves are also a “red herring”? Just keep extracting natural gas and oil for ever and a day, eh Ian? Can’t imagine oil and gas supplies ever getting scarce and unaffordable, Ian? Just look at the rising price of diesel fuel relative to petrol and LPG over the last decade. Why do you think that would be, Ian?
It’s clear to me, you are “uneducated” and apparently wilfully ignorant of the energy security and climate change challenges facing us, and the available, affordable solutions, possibilities and timelines. It seems to me you are stuck with your apparent prejudices/biases and can’t argue effectively because you don’t have compelling contradictory evidence/data – apparently just unsubstantiated suppositions, flawed logic and out-of-date information – that’s perhaps why you resort to ad hominem, emotive language and hyperbole to distract from your own inadequacies. Please argue with compelling evidence/data that can be verified and we might all learn something. But I suspect your mind is closed – prove me wrong!
Good on you Geoff.
I think Ian is trolling and is best ignored.
Some good fun on ABC’s Media Watch last night!
https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/nuclear/11240618
Hi Jim
I had to look up what “trolling” means – don’t think that is what I was doing – just feel we have to recognise timelines, and be aware of how other countries are dealing with transition.
I wasn’t seriously suggesting we must, or even should, go for nuclear – just had wondered if the cost hikes are being caused by coal boosters, or possibly even irrational obstructionists.
But I do believe we will be forced to utilise NG during transition to renewables, but only for transition, to minimise CO2 emissions overall during the interim period.
All the other accusations and misrepresentations are garbage.
Watched your link – had missed that – pretty good, but I don’t know if anything was proven, either way. I do wonder, though, why there is so much focus on Chernobyl – this did not have modern controls, and had a purpose to make plutonium for military use – it was not really representative of modern commercial application.
But I do agree that presently, the cost of nuclear is too much to consider.
Jim Green (re your comment at 25 June 2019 at 06:18pm),
You are perhaps correct about feeding the trolls, even tame ones. The exchanges from you-know-who are becoming a tiresome ‘Gish gallop’ of prejudices/biases, ineffective argument, unsubstantiated accusations, withholding sources of information, ignoring inconvenient information/arguments, ad hominem and hyperbole.
Many thanks for your link to the ABC Media Watch segment “Nuclear debate”. I missed that bit. Cheers.
BTW, are you the same “Dr Jim Green” mentioned in the Media Watch segment you linked to? If so, well done for the RenewEconomy piece “Nuclear power exits Australia’s energy debate, enters culture wars” earlier this month. IMO, the evidence/data presented there is compelling… and damning. I’m not surprised by it, as I was already aware of some of the information highlighted, and I’m pleased that the piece has apparently gained wider coverage on the national broadcaster. Hopefully, more people will wake-up to the lies and deceit being propagated by certain media people and organisations.
I agree with Paul Barry’s final remark:
“…we need a proper energy debate — but on the evidence.”
Unfortunately, it seems some (perhaps many?) people have a blinkered, ill-informed perspective and find it difficult to recognize and accept new compelling evidence/data. IMO the efforts of the likes of News Corp, Sky and Radio 2GB and broadcast affiliates aren’t helping!
And the windows of opportunity are rapidly closing to minimize the twin risks of falling off the ‘energy supply cliff’ (particularly transport energy) and effective mitigation of dangerous climate change.
You may wish to check out my presentation P/P slides and script delivered at a public meeting last week conducted by the Independent Planning Commission NSW (IPCN) concerning the Ulan Coal Mine MOD 4 project determination. Perhaps there may be some information of interest to you?
Slides: https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/resources/pac/media/files/pac/projects/2019/05/ulan-coal-mod-4/public-meeting/presentations/geoff-miell-presentation-slides.pptx
Script: https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/resources/pac/media/files/pac/projects/2019/05/ulan-coal-mod-4/public-meeting/presentations/geoff_miell.pdf
Hi Geoff, yes that was my article that got a plug on Media Watch
https://reneweconomy.com.au/nuclear-power-exits-australias-energy-debate-enters-culture-wars-47702/
A longer version of that info is posted at:
https://nuclear.foe.org.au/wp-content/uploads/Nuclear-power-economic-crisis-June-2019-FoE-Aust.pdf
It’s easy enough to get published in places like RenewEconomy or Online Opinion, and that would be a better use of your time rather than taking on the trolls.
Geoff, Geoff, Geoff
I SPECIFICALLY accuse you of falsehoods, misinterpretation, misrepresentation, paranoia, and fabrication, because you persistently and repeatably accuse me of being anti-renewables, of pedalling nuclear and somehow being associated with it, of down-playing the negatives of nuclear, of not understanding technologies in general, of having biases and prejudices, the list goes on – where simply NONE of this is true – not even close!
I don’t downplay/ignore the negatives of nuclear – I do know the negatives. My only suggestion for nuclear, was if it became economically attractive in a timeframe that allowed it to be deployed, TEMPORARILY, for CO2 reduction benefit while going through the difficult task of transition. I do not agree with you that the management of waste outweighs the benefits (of 12,000 million tonnes of CO2, for example – you should be able to calcualte this, just as I did). As I said, and you ignored, the fact of finite uranium resources is irrelevant in this context, so therefore a red herring to argue against – I had no thought of this being more than a relatively short-term (40 year) opportunity in the overall scheme of things.
Same goes for NG – the UK have been able to cease burning coal for 80 days, by burning 59% NG – you can find this on the web – I again only suggested this as an interim measure, to reduce CO2 emissions – like many other countries around the world appear to be doing..
Tell me Geoff – where are the grid-level supercapacitors located?
Do we have a lot of molten salt storage facilities in Australia?
Why are Finn and Ronald saying, still, that batteries are presently too expensive for rooftop solar, and will only increase CO2 emissions?
Why should grid-level batteries be any different – other than for making money by “hedging” electricity prices (granted, economies of scale will help)?
Why don’t we have enough batteries on grid now, to provide balancing – going along progressively as PV is being introduced?
Why do Vic and SA have large banks of diesel generators stacked up “just in case” – what is going to be done with them once the need goes away?
Where is the pumped hydro located in the Perth area? Where are the large scale transmission lines from Tasmania – the “Battery of Australia”? Where is the interconnector to WA located, and the transmission lines going to it?
Will you also be against nuclear fusion, should it get to the stage of being competitive? Could you then look a little red-faced, if all your precious intermittents become irrelevant, stranded assets?
Contrary to your persistent fabrications (and in spite of the above), I am certainly not a renewables hater – it’s just that I am not over-the-moon in love with them either, like you appear to be. This is not a football match – I don’t take sides, just look at the merits. I think we should, no must, go ahead with renewables as fast as we can – a saving grace is that if a newer, even better technology eventually comes along in the fullness of time, we can simply not replace solar panels once they become worn out. I am “for” renewables in that sense.
Your several “guilt trips” do you no credit. So what if we presently produce 1.5% of the worlds CO2, with only 0.3% of the population? Surely this just means we have a lot more work to do. Though having lived and travelled in the USA, and travelled extensively in Europe, I have to query why we are over-represented? Could it possibly be that France, the USA, Germany, et al, all have been using nuclear for years, and have better access to much more hydro than we do in Australia, and we have been using the dirtiest of brown coal a lot?
Whether or not I specifically have children or grandchildren is an irrelevant arguement – we are talking about saving the entire planet, not just our (very) small corner of it.
Your comments implying I somehow think we will keep using finite resources, including uranium, forever are utterly ridiculous – I have NEVER suggested any such thing, nor would I ever do so. It is disengenuous for you to come up with this frivilous statement, and it makes you look small-minded. It seems you are grasping at straws, and will fabricate any tripe whatsoever to suit your own narrow-minded and limited viewpoint.
And please stop harping on and on and on about the 1.3% figure – you seem to agree with 1.5%, so I am not going to quibble. I honestly simply don’t recall where I read the 1.3% figure any more – I did not record the website because at the time I had no need to, but I do recall having checked out the site for credibility – I seem to recall it was government sourced site, but cannot remember if it was something like the Bureau of Meteorology (I guess unlikely), or the Department of the Environment (possible), or what. I’ll be sure to let you know if I find it again. But, I do recall the figure was 1.3%, because I posted this not long after Ronald had suggested 3%.
Also, please get off the cat’s tail about my Reneweconomy comment – this query was genuine – I don’t know if that site involves more “spin” than reality, or not. I have come across many, many technically rubbish sites.
Again, I am “for” renewables, not against – and in reality always have been.
My issue, is how we get there – and I cannot understand your problem with that, and why you go on and on about it. So we disagree about implementation strategy – so what?
Ronald,
It seems EDF’s flagship Flamanville nuclear power plant in France has fallen behind schedule again – now 10 years behind originally planned and €7.6 over budget.
Reported in the Financial Times on July 26 is an article headlined “EDF confirms another delay at flagship Flamanville plant”, by David Keohane.
See: https://www.ft.com/content/f522a3b6-af75-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2
And yet the new chair of the Minerals Council of Australia, Helen Coonan, has begun flogging nuclear energy to be considered as part of Australia’s energy mix.
See: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/minerals-council-chair-says-nuclear-power-should-be-on-the-table/11355262
Hi Ronald, Finn
Yesterday I posted a comment partly responding to Mr Geoffrey Miell’s post above – but for some reason the site did not come back with the post, headed with “Awaiting Moderation”. It appears to have disappeared. Not a bad thing, as I had incorporated several links that were non-complimentary, but my attention was not to denigrate renewables, but rather to indicate why we may need another approach to balancing in the relatively short term.
So my questions are: Was it “puilled”? If so, do we ever get to know why?
A response to Mr Geoffrey Miell:
Geoffey, in Strategic Financial Management there is a phrase “The Fallacy of Sunk Costs”. Basically this indicates that if a project has a setback, cost overrun, or technical delay, it is incorrect to consider “Wow, we’ve already spent $X billion, we just have to keep going”. Rather, the correct approach should be to assess what benefits will accrue for a given course of action, what remaining risks are involved, and how much more do we need to spend? This would normally be done for several different scenarios.
The bottom line – if the costs and risks outweigh the future benefits, then the project should be abandoned – when the “sunk costs” would be lost.
However, if the benefits outweigh the residual risks and costs of delay, then the project should still go forward (assuming funds remain available).
So I find it disappointing that this project has been saddled with a faulty steel specification problem – but these things do happen. Witness the recent rash of high-rise apartment structural issues. However, I feel confident this project has sufficient well-educated project managers, etc., that they will make a determination according to the above principle. If they shut the project down, then clearly the benefits are insufficient. However, if they decide to proceed, I’d think they are well cognisant of the remaining risks, and of the benefits outcomes. So, nothing to “gloat” over – just a fact of life.
Personally, I have seen several news items suggesting we do need a new “plan” for intermittents integration – which I had tried to share in a previous post.
I can’t see a post a waiting moderation from you, so I am afraid I don’t know what happened to it.
Nope – it’s happened again…
Hi Ronald
I’ve tried several posts, just like I’ve (successfully) done previosuly – even tried on a different blog – but they just don’t “take”.
Perhaps I’m on a “gag” order? (Would surprise me – your site appears to allow all sorts of points of view).
Is there a size (number of characters) limit, maybe? Have tried sending in tranches.
Cheers
I’m not aware of a set word limit for this blog but I believe the software can handle 5,000 characters which is perhaps 1,000 words so it’s possible that’s the problem.
Hm-mm
I tried sending just one link – a very long one – and this did not go so I found a condensed version.
Then sent only about 100 words per post – 3 went to moderation, but after the 4th, all of the previous “awaiting moderation” sections were gone?
Could someone be intercepting my posts?
Hi Ronald
I think the problem might be that certain types of link kill the post – I could not include links that for example download the NEM Supply and Demand widget, nor the Financial Times article that was linked via a google search.
Normally, after the posting the site comes back at the location, showing “Awaiting Moderation” – but with the above the site does not relocate correctly, and the post is lost.
Thanks Ronald – the whole thing is 680 words – I’ll try this one by smaller “instalments”. 1st:
Ronald – the reason for my earlier (missing) post, was to point out that many things are happening overseas which point to a likely problem of local policy concerning the widescale implementation of renewables being done WITHOUT the simultaneous implementation of adequate non-fossil “balancing” facilities – this will impact the rate of renewables uptake. Even the Financial Times printed an article pointing out that renewables need to carry the “hidden costs” of their associated impacts: https://www.ft.com/content/6c9a53f4-8597-11e7-8bb1-5ba57d47eff7
Others don’t see batteries as a good solution: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4260555-caiso-data-highlights-critical-flaws-evolving-renewables-plus-storage-mythology
2nd: I think the problem may have been a very long link name – we’ll see.
There are several sites that note problems with curtailment (in Spain, for example) are making renewables projects less attractive investments – caused either by inadequate existing transmission infrastructure, or a lack of adequate storage: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613498/global-renewable-growth-has-stalled-and-thats-terrible-news/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/12/china-has-slashed-clean-energy-funding-by-39-leading-a-global-decline/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/29/collapse-of-wind-power-threatens-germanys-green-energy-transition/
3rd: Prioritisation of renewables has created its own problems – either by making fossil-fuelled generators more expensive to operate (due to fixed cost components), or increasing maintenance costs for plant that was never designed for rapidly cycled ramping:
https://m.economictimes.com/industry/energy/power/andhra-pradesh-seeks-to-cancel-21-wind-energy-pacts/amp_articleshow/70426039.cms#stickyBanner
Some sites are downright negative: http://joannenova.com.au/2019/07/robbins-island-mega-wind-farm-killing-birds-and-baseload-power-at-300-kilometers-per-hour/
https://www.wind-watch.org/documents/true-cost-of-electricity-from-wind-is-always-underestimated-and-its-value-is-always-overestimated/
5th: Otherwise: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/
However, with all respect to Mr Geoffrey Miell’s anti-nuclear proclivities and extremely short-term objectives, I really don’t think we should be repeating the mess that numerous overseas countries have gotten themselves into. LAZARD’s LCOE may prove not the only factor to consider: http://www.baeconomics.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Renewables-and-electricity-16Aug16.pdf
In my humble opinion we have an inescapable duty to plan for the future, to try to avoid problems that may derail renewables integration – including allowing for possible contingencies – putting our heads in the sand is not a realistic option. Of course, there are opposing opinions on this, and I suspect the “truth” probably lies somewhere between the two extremes.
6th: Therefore, amongst other things I feel we must allow for the possibility, remote though that may be, that we MAY, just POSSIBLY, need to consider nuclear anyway – for relatively temporary (40 year) service – if we are to reduce GHG emissions in the relatively near-term without being hit with extraordinary energy costs. Probably too expensive at the present time, yes, but I don’t feel we are yet seeing the true impact of renewables balancing – and the first (Financial Times) link above suggests balancing costs may rise to perhaps £80/MWh = A$142, nearly 5.7 times the $25/MWhr figure that Geoffrey quotes (which, by the way, was only for hourly balancing – not seasonal). It may go even higher, in our lower population density country. So, while certainly not DEMANDING we go for nuclear, I do think we should at least open a discussion about why we might need nuclear, the implications thereof, and how we go forward if we find it does truly become necessary to contain costs while reducing emissions – before it is too late. Non-fossil Balancing is evidently late to implementation already and even if it does take 10 years to implement, I’d prefer we balance with non-CO2-emitting nuclear after that, rather than fossil fuels like we are doing now, into perpetuity.
And, of course, push the Government for better policies for implementing renewables – the Victorian debacle would be a joke, if it was not so serious.
I’m not sure if the 4th installment “took” – the app came back with an “already posted” comment, even though it doesn’t show up.
This instalment failed to post – so is out of sequence:
Here is the 4th: Here in WA one of our coal stations has been forced to operate at 23% capacity at times over summer, in order to accommodate the huge influx of PV – good, Mr Miell may say – but we do need power supply continuity and this does not seem to be the best way to secure this.
For my part, I have been monitoring the NEM Supply and Demand Widget – google this to download, as this will not post otherwise…
This is a great widget and shows SA has been recently under the impact of a wind drought – and demand has had to be balanced by using very high levels of gas generation (up to 1,900 MW or more, 87% of demand), and sometimes by also importing significant levels of energy mostly generated from burning black coal. The big battery contribution is nearly invisible.
In my humble opinion, this is not good enough – and the proposed transmission line to “Australia’s Big Battery” (Tasmania’s hydro) may be far too little, far too late. Government Policy just MUST deal with balancing in the short term – like RIGHT NOW.
Ian Thompson,
You state:
“Here in WA one of our coal stations has been forced to operate at 23% capacity at times over summer, in order to accommodate the huge influx of PV – good, Mr Miell may say – but we do need power supply continuity and this does not seem to be the best way to secure this.”
I totally agree with you that “we do need power supply continuity”. That requires a competent understanding of the strengths and limitations of both the old generator technologies and the new ones integrating into the system, to enable a smooth, effectively planned and enacted transition from old to new over the required time-frame.
Perhaps the WA Government may have an easier planning and implementing path – correct me if I’m wrong but I suspect it doesn’t have to deal with the NEM, the Feds and what the other states may (or may not) do. But it could be a double-edged sword if the WA Government stuffs it up (and has no transmission link to rely upon from the east for support if it miscalculates).
You also state:
“Government Policy just MUST deal with balancing in the short term – like RIGHT NOW”
Which government(s), Ian?
IMO, it seems pigs might fly before the current Feds provide an effective energy policy. I don’t think they appreciate how dangerous the situation is becoming and they appear to be just playing politics – IMO, politics that is likely to start hurting many people soon.
One of Liddell’s generator units closes at the end of 2022 and the remaining three units close in April 2023 (in about three years, eight months). Snowy 2 certainly won’t be operational by then. Other ageing, corporate-owned, coal-fired generators may close early due to declining economics (e.g. Yallourn W). The options for adequate low-carbon emissions ‘dispatchable’ supply deployed and operational before then are fast evaporating, so things might get ‘interesting’ for the NEM in the 2023-24 summer period (particularly if the drought strengthens further in the next few years in the eastern states and reduces coal- and gas-fired generating capacity). It seems the biggest bottleneck for new generation is transmission.
I just wonder whether people begin to wake-up to how serious the issues are in time and demand effective action or find out far too late to do anything practical to avoid major disruptions – for the twin challenges of energy security and climate change mitigation.
Geoffrey Miell
I’ve just read that our Muja Coal Power Station is soon to be scaled back due to low capacity factors:
https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2019/08/Muja-Power-Station-in-Collie-to-be-scaled-back-from-2022.aspx
I don’t know if you monitor the NEM Supply & Demand widget, but as I write WA is producing 81% of it’s electricity from coal and gas – it has been a sunny day, but our wind is only producing about 6.5% of our demand. I’m not aware that we have ANY storage capacity, apart from perhaps a few minor early-adoptor battery enthusiasts for home use. So I don’t know if WA is demonstrating a great implementation path. I’d have thought a 2GW+ full-capacity transmission line, with backup, from Perth to a suitable NEM interconnector would likely prove horrendously expensive – I suspect we’ll likely have to “go-it-alone”.
I note the NEM is presently generating some 17.5 GW from coal – so I’d rather we don’t import power from this source.
I will be interested to see how China go with their GEN IV HTR PM
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/HTR-PM-steam-generator-passes-pressure-tests
due to go on-grid by the end of the year.
Yes, I had been thinking Policy should come from Federal Government, and yes, I agree with you that they are falling down on the job.
Hi Geoffey
You make the point “The options for adequate low-carbon emissions ‘dispatchable’ supply deployed and operational before then are fast evaporating”.
I note that right this moment, SA’s generation is 1.56 GW gas, and only 0.08 GW wind – so clearly SA’s storage for ‘dispatchable’ supply is presently virtually negligible (battery discharge only 0.015 GW, i.e. < 1% of demand).
This PV magazine link suggests battery prices need to reduce by 90% to allow PV & wind to match traditional generation technologies (although, this comparison doesn't seem to burden coal with emissions penalties):
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/08/12/new-us-study-finds-renewable-energy-storage-costs-need-to-drop-90/
Given that rechargeable batteries have been around since Gaston Planté invented a lead-acid system in 1859 (and Junger a NiCd in 1899), I'd think battery prices may have had plenty of time to mature – so a 90% reduction in price seems fairly ambitious (although, increased mass production will help a little).
This was the reason for my earlier comments about timeframes, and why I thought some of us may be forced to pay more for power in order to contain emissions – undesirable and difficult for those with limited incomes as this might be.
I'm interested in China's HTR-PM developments, because they may yet lead the march against pollution and create a new world market, while we remain in the backwaters – maybe? Their level and rate of infrastructure developments are mind-blowingly massive – phenomenal…! Puts Australia well and truly into the shade. Just got back from Paris, metropolitan population of 12.5 million – their Metro transit system has driverless trains, at times running at 2 minute intervals – fully electric – we have NOTHING even remotely approaching this in Australia.
Ian Thompson,
You state:
“Just got back from Paris, metropolitan population of 12.5 million – their Metro transit system has driverless trains, at times running at 2 minute intervals – fully electric – we have NOTHING even remotely approaching this in Australia.”
Are you not aware of the Sydney Metro?
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Metro
Admittedly, the Sydney Metro doesn’t have the frequency of 2-minute intervals, but 4-minute intervals is getting there, and it’s driverless!
I do agree that Australia is way behind Europe as far as public transport is concerned – no high speed rail (HSR) – Australia and Antarctica are the only continents that don’t have HSR.
See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/07/high-speed-trains-to-nowhere-australias-long-running-rail-fail
Geoffrey
No, I was not aware of the Sydney Metro – even though I’ve used local trains there using one of their Opal cards. But from your link only one line – admittedly 36 km long once it has been completed.
However Paris is criss-crossed with a whole lot of quite close-spaced lines – I stopped counting at 25! The stops are also quite close-spaced, and some of the trains I went on looked like they had been in service for many, many years. The driverless trains must use adaptive control technology fir their braking systems, because they brake firmly, but always stop within a centimetre or so of target (the train & platform doors have to line up).
We also went on a TGV from Paris to Lyon – the driver was 20 minutes late to arrive, but made up time by running at a steady 295 kph for much of the trip – so smooth I could easily take a telephoto shot down the length of the carriage, to image the speedo showing that speed at the other end.
Was impressed with the huge number of wind turbines in Normandy – it was very windy, but later in the day (on the return trip) a significant number had been stopped – curtailed I’d guess. They still have a lot of Nuclear.
Yes, we are a long, long way behind.
BTW Geoffrey
I forgot to add, we do in fact have some Hydro in WA – it’s just that its power generation is fairly insignificant, and it does not connect to our SWIS grid in our State’s south – which services the primary population centres.
Posted in The Times (UK) by Energy Editor Emily Gosden, is an article headlined “Cost of Hinkley nuclear power station could rise by £3bn”, dated Sep 25, it includes:
“The Somerset plant is now expected to cost as much as £22.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of £19.6 billion and a 25 per cent increase from the £18 billion budget when it was approved in 2016.”
And the operational start date of 2025 is at risk of being delayed a further 15 months.
Yet some Australian pollies think nuclear is the way to go.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/barnaby-joyce-finds-a-new-cause-in-nuclear-power-20190919-p52t2y
At the Australian Parliament House of Representatives Standing Committee on the Environment and Energy inquiry into the prerequisites for nuclear energy in Australia website, there are now 209 submissions publicly available to view.
See: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Environment_and_Energy/Nuclearenergy/Submissions
IMO, the Committee would do well to heed Professor Ian Lowe’s statements in his (#162) Submission. Professor Ian Lowe was a member of the Expert Advisory Committee for the SA Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission in 2016.
That 3 billion pound increase is $5.45 billion Australian. We’re getting 1.8 gigawatts of wind and solar with 900 MW (power) of battery storage to make it load following for $1 billion in South Australia:
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/goyder-south-solar-mb1209/
So the 3 billion pound price increase alone could pay for enough renewable generation and storage capacity to roughly equal the output of Hinkley C with a 90% capacity factor.
Ronald Brakels,
You state:
“So the 3 billion pound price increase alone could pay for enough renewable generation and storage capacity to roughly equal the output of Hinkley C with a 90% capacity factor.”
I certainly don’t mean to be a nuclear power booster, but what would the operational life of the wind and solar-PV generators be? 30 years? I doubt wind and solar-PV are anywhere near the operational life of many nuclear plants. IMO, it’s a characteristic that should not be ignored.
And lithium battery storage life? Perhaps 10 years? Off-river pumped-hydro energy storage would have a considerably longer life – perhaps up to 10 times that of battery unit life with greater storage capacity, or longer? And cheaper per unit power and energy storage capacity.
UK’s Hinkley Point C1 unit capacity is 1720 MW with perhaps a 60-year operational life. But the latest £22.5 billion build price-tag is just the beginning – add in regular refuelling costs, nuclear waste management and disposal costs, and the downplayed decommissioning costs – who knows where the whole-of-life costs will end up being?
I’ve indicated in my Submission (#096) to the Australian nuclear inquiry that global uranium nuclear fuel supplies are likely to become constrained (per the EWG report in Mar 2013). This situation appears to be supported by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) in their “WNA 2013 Fuel Market Report” presented at the International Symposium on Uranium Raw Material for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, IAEA, on 23-17 Jun 2014, with conclusions including:
“• Increased uranium market uncertainty has resulted in the cancellation and deferment of a number of mining projects. Our uranium production methodology has also become more objective. As a result, existing and expected capacity plus secondary supply will be insufficient on current plans to meet reference scenario requirements by about 2024.
• Enrichment capacity will adjust to current surpluses; underfeeding is expected to increase.”
See: https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/48/045/48045066.pdf
I note that only a very few other submissions mention/acknowledge global nuclear fuel supply constraints. IMO, the very slick DUNE Submission (#159) is attempting to accentuate the positives and eliminate the negatives with the suggestion that “[i]t is estimated that the oceans contain four to five billion tons of uranium”, but avoids mentioning at all the considerable energy, material and fiscal costs that would necessarily be required to capture and process into a timely and useable form those “estimated” resources – I would suggest that would probably be inconvenient for their narrative.
IMO, ‘dispatchable’ CST is being overlooked as another more affordable, rapidly deployable, maturing, low-carbon emissions, large-scale, and longer operating life technology option, without the ultra-long-term toxic waste problem.
See my comment: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/finkel-hydrogen-coal/#comment-486493
Out of curiosity I revisited the National Parties 2019 Policies page and downloaded ‘Our Plan for Affordable and Reliable Energy’. Upon reading it, you will find at the bottom of page 6 and further into page 7 that:
“The Government has selected a shortlist of 12 projects – 6 renewable pumped hydro, 5 gas and one coal upgrade” which, it is claimed, will deliver 4000 MWatts, which is enough electricity to power 1 million homes. These ‘new’ projects, together with the Snowy 2.0 project will generate some 4000 extra jobs.
No indication of the total amount of money that would be needed for the above projects is given, which is probably fair enough for a policy document, and perhaps those costs were published in more detail elsewhere. It does mention that some $1.7 billion has already been spent on Snowy 2.0 and that any amount for Snowy 2.0 in the 12 projects ‘builds’ upon that.
My rough sums on my totally reliable solar powered calculator which has never shown any signs of the dreaded ‘intermittancy disease’ at all during the roughly 12+ years I’ve owned it, suggests that some 10.97 kilowatt hours per day will be available to the lucky 1 million home owners (which will be barely enough to meet their extra air-conditioner electricity consumption when things ‘heat up’ a bit).
What I find the most annoying though is that all these promises of ‘future benefits to come soon’ do nothing but create ‘false hope’, or raise expectations that won’t be met, which then acts to further reduce people’s confidence that the government really knows what its doing. Most of the new money is going to be spent on Snowy 2.0. That’s such a huge project that its going to be quite a while before all the details are finalised. It looks as though the preliminary site works and feasibility studies alone are going to cost about $4.5 billion.
The simultaneous news of a 3.1 mag earthquake in the Snowy Mountains, at a relatively shallow depth of 3 km doesn’t exactly add much cheer to things either if your’ the nervous nellie type personality See: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-26/sydney-news-earthquake-strikes-and-swim-coach-charge/11548704
Just on the news today at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-26/wa-power-retailer-synergy-posts-massive-financial-loss/11550420
is an announcement that “State-owned power provider Synergy has recorded a massive $656.9 million net loss for the past financial year, blaming a “challenging energy landscape” and the rise of rooftop solar power for its woes.” Synergy operates in Perth and WA. The article also adds; ” Synergy continues to grapple with a flood of renewable energy undercutting its fleet of coal- and gas-fired power plants, and the widespread installation of rooftop solar panels was singled out for mention by chief executive officer Jason Waters in explaining the disastrous result.”
Prior to this announcement, it had been forecast that Synergy would only begin to make losses in 2020-2021, and only to the extent of $180 million in total over a 3 year period., so the net loss of $656.9 million in the single 2019 financial year is a huge shock. There’s a fair amount of ”one-off’ loss from a $428.9 write-down for ‘impaired assets’ such as coal powered stations, but even so the outlook is ‘not good’, and the WA government is going to subsidize customers by limiting electricity price rises to 1.75%, and bearing the rest of any losses themselves. (which somewhere along the line still ends up on the population generally in other ways).
Des Scahill,
You refer to The Nationals’ 2019 Policy Document titled “OUR PLAN FOR AFFORDABLE AND RELIABLE ENERGY” and quote:
“The Government has selected a shortlist of 12 projects…”
See: http://nationals.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/NatsCHQ_Policy-Document-Affordable-Energy.pdf
I would suggest a “shortlist” doesn’t necessarily mean that all the projects will translate into completed and operational projects.
What forms are the 4,000 MW of new generating capacity? Six of these are described as “renewable pumped hydro” – these are not primary energy generators and rely upon other primary energy generators to function, that could be coal and/or gas. Five projects are gas and one is coal – these will likely become “stranded assets” as they are not low-carbon emissions generators. IMO, the policy document is in denial of climate change science.
NSW’s Liddell (AGL-owned, nominally 2,000 MW, but really derated down now to 1,680 MW) will progressively retire in 2022-23. Victoria’s Yallourn W (EnergyAustralia-owned, 1,480 MW) could close in the mid-2020s. Queensland’s state-owned Gladstone (1,680 MW) could also close in the mid-2020s. NSW’s Mt Piper (EnergyAustralia-owned, currently rated at 1,400 MW with plans to improve capacity to 1,460 MW) is currently experiencing an “acute coal shortage” and would be reducing its operations over the coming months to conserve coal. All these ageing generators are classed as ‘firmed’. And when are these projects likely to begin generating with transmission links to the grid? The policy document doesn’t say.
See my Submission #9, page 7 at:
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Fair_Dinkum_Power/FairDinkumPower/Submissions
See also: https://www.lithgowmercury.com.au/story/6281236/letters-to-the-editor-mt-piper-upgrade-ignores-risks-of-becoming-stranded-asset/
You state:
“What I find the most annoying though is that all these promises of ‘future benefits to come soon’ do nothing but create ‘false hope’, or raise expectations that won’t be met, which then acts to further reduce people’s confidence that the government really knows what its doing.”
Indeed! Welcome to my world. I hope many more people like you are waking-up to the false promises and apparent incompetent planning policies and start to vocalise your displeasure (before it’s too late to avoid real and widespread disruptions).
BTW, is Submission #224 published on the Australian Parliament nuclear inquiry website yours, or is there someone else with the same name?
See: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Environment_and_Energy/Nuclearenergy/Submissions
Yes, Submission 224 was mine.
Solar uptake is already quite high in QLD, with some postcode areas having over 50% of dwellings with rooftop solar. Penetration rates are quite high in Northern NSW (from Coff’s Harbour upwards) and Gold Coast locations too, with many having 40% +
I notice in Melbourne that as a general rule, the further out you are in suburbia, the higher the % of installation – in outer postcodes the penetration rate is around 21%, which decreases to around 7% for dwellings close to the city centre. Sydney follows a similar pattern, but the outer suburbs have higher levels than the Melbourne ones.
I got the above figures from the Australian PV Institute maps at:
https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/historical#7/-41.402/145.096
The APV figures seem reasonably close to the mark to me, possibly even understate slightly if my own postcode is any guide. When you throw in the recently added lift in PV uptake by government and business firms, plus solar farm outputs, it seems virtually certain that any large scale nuclear or additional coal generation facility within Australia would have zero chance of being profitable or of generating a positive cash flow unless local power prices went up, AND they also fully replaced other existing facilities.
The reality is though – and its somewhat ironic – that simply because Federal and State Governments have so completely stuffed things up, their own inept actions and decisions have left the general public, businesses, local councils etc with virtually no other option available but to go ‘renewable’ due to rising electricity bills..
Posted at Reuters on Oct 9 was an article by Dominique Vidalon and Geert De Clercq headlined “EDF warns Flamanville weld repairs to cost 1.5 billion euros”. The article includes:
“Running a decade behind schedule, Flamanville is now expected to cost 12.4 billion euros, EDF said, a month after warning its Hinkley Point C nuclear plant in Britain could cost 2.9 billion pounds ($3.6 billion) more than forecast.”
The 1,650 MW capacity Flamanville-3 was originally scheduled to open in 2012. In June 2019, builder EDF announced the start date would be pushed back by three years to 2022. The latest announcement indicates the start date will slide into 2023.
See: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-edf-flamanville/edf-warns-flamanville-weld-repairs-to-cost-15-billion-euros-idUSKBN1WO0HF
So, it seems construction costs for Flamanville-3 have blown out further to €7,515 per kilowatt of capacity (or at today’s conversion rate at AU$12,221/kW) – ouch! Then add in running costs, refuelling and the unquantifiable decommissioning costs and the nuclear option just seems to keep getting worse.
It seems to me that for all the multi-decade French experience in nuclear power technologies, this hasn’t led to keeping build costs and completion times down – IMO to think for some nuclear proponents, this is an exemplar for Australia to follow, boggles the mind.
Meanwhile, at the ongoing Australian inquiry into the prerequisites for nuclear energy in Australia, some witnesses at recent public hearings suggest CSIRO/AEMO’s GenCost 2018 numbers for small modular reactors (SMRs) are:
• “…astronomically high and unjustifiable. There’s no basis given for them. They must have been pulled out of thin air”. – Mr Ian Hore-Lacy, Fellow, Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, on Oct 1, Melbourne, Proof Transcript p20;
• “’Indefensible’ is a strong word and we used it advisedly. Sixteen thousand dollars per kilowatt installed is an extraordinary high figure. It would require a firm base of evidence. In looking at the report and looking at the research work that underpins that report, there is a section about small modular reactors, identifying the data points and their sources. What we found principally is that the figure of $16,000 per kilowatt has no source. There was only reference to the World Nuclear Association. … So at the moment Australia appears to be referring to a number that is not robust, and, if we are to look at the evidence clearly, we need better evidence.” – Dr Benjamin Heard, Founder, Bright New World, on Oct 2, Adelaide, Proof Transcript p13.
See: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Environment_and_Energy/Nuclearenergy/Public_Hearings
There are no SMRs that have been “factory-built” anywhere in the world to date to demonstrate actual costs and build times. It seems to me some proponents would suggest Australia should be a guinea pig for this ‘vapour-ware’ technology – methinks not!
I talked about SMR costs at the Melbourne hearing of the federal inquiry
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Environment_and_Energy/Nuclearenergy/Public_Hearings
The GenCost 2018 figure for SMRs (A$16,000/kW) is broadly consistent with the little real world information that is available, averaging costs for Argentina (A$32,000), China (A$9,000) and Russia (A$15,000).
Another way into the problem would be to take costs for large reactors in comparable countries and to add a premium for first-of-a-kind projects and for SMRs (diseconomies of scale) and again that gives a figure in the same ball-park as the GenCost2018 figure.
Dr Jim Green,
Yes, I read the transcript of your session at the Melbourne public hearing. It seems to me the Chair was a little confused by some of your answers. I hope you provided clarity.
Listening to the online audio of the Sydney public hearing earlier this week, I gained the impression that the Chair didn’t like some of the answers given by Tim Buckley (for IEEFA).
In my Submission (#096) on page 7, I refer to a graph from Energy Watch Group’s “Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply Outlook” by Dr Werner Zittel et. al., published Mar 2013, indicating future global uranium fuel supplies are likely constrained.
I also found presentation slides delivered at an IAEA international symposium in 2014, that seems to concur with EWG’s analysis on nuclear fuel supply. On slide 25, the conclusions include:
“• Increased uranium market uncertainty has resulted in the cancellation and deferment of a number of mining projects. Our uranium production methodology has also become more objective. As a result, existing and expected capacity plus secondary supply will be insufficient on current plans to meet reference scenario requirements by about 2024.”
See: https://inis.iaea.org/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/48/045/48045066.pdf
Jim, do you have more recent analyses of global uranium raw fuel supplies? Do they continue to indicate an aggressive expansion of nuclear power capacity is unlikely to be supported due to an inadequate fuel supply, or has something changed since 2013?
I note DUNE’s Submission (#159) states on page 15 that:
“It is estimated that the oceans contain four to five billion tons of uranium. This can be dissolved out using polymer mats or fibre yarn with essentially zero environmental impact.”
But I wonder how much more expensive (i.e. resources, energy, fiscal) that would be required to capture raw uranium this way? DUNE doesn’t say what it would cost per kilogram – would that be an inconvenient question, Jim?
I’m intrigued that few Submissions to the inquiry have mentioned any concerns about the long-term supply of finite uranium (or thorium). It seems to me it’s an issue that’s apparently often ignored.
Hi,
Even in the unlikely event that nuclear power expanded significantly, uranium supply limitations would be unlikely for perhaps a century or more (and there are ways around the problem e.g. reprocessing or unconventional resources or alternative fuels e.g. thorium) Not sure about uranium from seawater – that might be an issue for future generations, but probably won’t be.
Undersupply isn’t the problem. It is the opposite – 50% increased production over the past decade to meet the rising demand of the nuclear power renaissance …. which never happened. So there is a massive glut on the market which has helped keep prices very low – that’s why numerous existing mines are struggling.
https://wiseinternational.org/nuclear-monitor/857/2017-review-uranium-best-left-ground
Dr Jim Green,
You state:
“Even in the unlikely event that nuclear power expanded significantly, uranium supply limitations would be unlikely for perhaps a century or more…”
I wish to draw your attention to a YouTube video promoting a book by Ugo Bardi, titled “EXTRACTED – How the Quest for Mineral Wealth is Plundering the Planet”, published in 2014. I think these statements given in the video (from time interval 3:48) are enlightening and poignant:
“We will never run out of minerals, but we will run out of cheap fossil fuels and high-grade ores.
The limits to mineral extraction are not limits of quantity, but of energy.
Extracting minerals takes energy, and the more dispersed the minerals are, the more energy is needed.
Technology can mitigate the depletion problem, but cannot solve it.
The depletion of fossil fuels is already becoming a serious problem. The peak of conventional oil production may have passed between 2005 and 2008, while all other oil and gas resources could peak within the next ten years. Coal production could increase for several years, but at a tremendous cost to the environment.
Production from uranium mines is likely to decline during this decade.”
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_Y29DqzWkc
For argument sake, let’s assume it were possible to radically reduce reactor construction costs and times, and the nuclear-fission option (however unlikely) became economically competitive, and nuclear power operating capacity were to be significantly increased in the next few decades.
Establishing context: The capacity of nuclear power plants in operation worldwide in 2018 was circa 396,911 MWe. Per WNA (Jul 2019), “over 100 power reactors with a total gross capacity of about 120,000 MWe are on order or planned…”
See: https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
Per the published March 2013 EWG analysis in “Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the Supply Outlook”, Figure 113 indicates there were estimated remaining global uranium ores that may provide:
• 2,015 ktU Reasonable Assured Resources (RAR) with extraction costs below $80/kgU;
• An additional 1,441 ktU RAR with extraction costs from $80/kgU to below $130/kgU; and
• A further 3,641 ktU RAR + Inferred Resources (IR) with extraction costs below $260/kgU.
Figure 113 also shows the NEA 2011 scenarios for:
• “Low case” nuclear power capacity ramping up to 540 GW; and
• “High case” nuclear power capacity ramping up to 746 GW.
The EWG analysis indicates this leads to a uranium fuel demand between 95 and 130 ktU/year in 2035. The analysis shows RAR with extraction costs below $80/kgU are not enough to meet the NEA 2011 scenario demand. If the uranium supply is extended to the next cost category (i.e. <$130/kgU RAR), this would be barely enough to meet fuel demand in the NEA “low case” scenario for the next 10 – 20 years.
You also state:
“Undersupply isn’t the problem. It is the opposite – 50% increased production over the past decade to meet the rising demand of the nuclear power renaissance …. which never happened. So there is a massive glut on the market which has helped keep prices very low – that’s why numerous existing mines are struggling.”
Indeed, but for how long, Jim? Presently, there’s an apparent uranium fuel glut, per your link – thanks. But, as the nuclear power boosters would have it, if more nuclear capacity were to be constructed and operable, then uranium fuel demand would increase proportionally. Uranium ores will inevitably become more and more expensive to extract, as limited quantities of cheaper ores are progressively depleted – when this happens will depend on cumulative rates of consumption (and whether any significant additional lower-cost resources may be found since the EWG 2013 analysis – I suspect uranium prospectors aren’t bothering to look for new resources now with uranium supply in a glut and spot prices currently very low, but please correct me if I’m wrong).
My point is: A nuclear power ‘renaissance’ (that the nuclear power boosters are trying to promote) CANNOT BE SUSTAINED FOR LONG as there are apparently inadequate known lower-cost global uranium fuel supplies remaining. The nuclear industry apparently concurred in 2014 with EWG’s uranium supply outlook (i.e. IAEA international symposium – see my earlier comment).
Do you disagree with EWG’s 2013 analysis, Jim? Is there a more recent uranium supply outlook analysis that you are aware of that contradicts and supersedes the EWG 2013 analysis?
You also state:
“…(and there are ways around the problem e.g. reprocessing or unconventional resources or alternative fuels e.g. thorium)”
Indeed, but (please correct me if I’m wrong) those solutions you refer to are likely to be much more expensive (i.e. monetary & energetic) ways to provide fissile fuel. It’s not a question of quantity, but of energy (and finance) – increasing energy (& financial) penalties for reprocessing spent fuel or utilising unconventional resources – otherwise (I would suggest) it would already be common practice.
Thorium doesn’t have a fissile isotope, so for the thorium fuel cycle to become self-sustaining, it requires:
• A continued input of fissile material from the existing (and depleting stocks from the) uranium/plutonium fuel cycle until the required amounts of fissile U-233, derived from thorium, could be produced in enough quantities; and
• The development of industrial-scale reprocessing capabilities to recover fissile U-233, derived from thorium. This would increase proliferation risks.
As for uranium being extracted from seawater, I would suggest it’s likely to be enormously expensive and highly energy intensive to pump vast volumes of seawater containing ultra-low concentrations of uranium to capture any significant quantities in a reasonable timeframe. I’m asking you, in case you were perhaps aware of indicative costs (i.e. monetary, materials, energy) for this extractive method. I suspect it is a solution to consider only when all other alternatives are unavailable (if at all).
IMO, just because “there are ways around the problem” doesn’t mean we should be doing it, particularly when renewables (certainly in the Australian context) already provide much cheaper, reliable, safer/lower-risk, longer-term sustainable, faster to deploy energy supply alternatives. Do you have a different view, Jim?
Sorry Geoff I don’t have time to fish around for references so might end up repeating myself
— I agree with your statement that: “A nuclear power ‘renaissance’ (that the nuclear power boosters are trying to promote) CANNOT BE SUSTAINED FOR LONG as there are apparently inadequate known lower-cost global uranium fuel supplies remaining.”
BUT
— Fuel costs for nuclear are a tiny fraction of overall costs … so using higher cost uranium is no great problem.
— Reprocessing is an option (uranium + plutonium)
— greater use of plutonium (esp. in MOX) is an option
— alternative fuels + unconventional uranium resources.
I don’t support any of the above, just making the point that uranium supply constraints aren’t go to be an issue for many decades to come, perhaps centuries. Unless there is a nuclear renaissance – which seems incredibly unlikely.
Hi Ronald
Your title for this blog may be a misnomer…
Finland is evidently keeping it’s options open:
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Finnish-regulator-prepares-for-SMR-licensing
Just in case future battery cost reductions remain inadequate, and more Hydro cannot be built, or becomes too expensive to build? I mean, we really do have to factor in significant storage costs and transmission line upgrade costs, if we are to be totally reliant on intermittent sources of energy – numerous overseas countries have experienced this issue.
Perhaps Hydrogen can help in the future (good storage option, plus useful for industrial heating, concrete and steel manufacture, and heavy haul transport).