Solar Polysilicon Prices: Up, Down, And Where to Next?

It was an odd start to the year for a crucial material used in the manufacture of conventional solar panels. But after a brief and more subdued spike, polysilicon prices are again heading the right way for panel buyers.

First, some recent solar polysilicon pricing history. After hitting lows of below USD $7/kg in July 2020, pandemic impacts and other events saw average spot prices skyrocket. By August last year, global average spot prices hit around US$39.10 per kilogram before plummeting in December. However, it’s not unusual for prices to drop late in the year as procurement for year-end PV installations is done and dusted.

But in very early January 2023, prices continued to nose-dive – well, for a short while anyway. Average spot prices fell to below $18 a kilogram at one point. According to Bernreuter Research, this was due to a hangover from oversupply of wafers and it wasn’t expected the slump would continue for too long.

Sure enough, by early February, the average spot price returned to above $30/kg – much higher than some anticipated. But the good news is since that time, the trend has again been downwards. The latest update from Bernreuter indicated an average polysilicon spot price of US$27.26 per kg as at March 22.

What happens from here is basically down to what grows more rapidly – supply or demand.

In terms of supply, there are several major polysilicon plants expected to be online soon. Among them; a GCL Technology project with a capacity of 100,000 metric tonnes in Inner Mongolia, Daqo’s new 100,000 metric tonne factory in Inner Mongolia, and the arrival of a new player – Runyang Silicon’s 50,000 MT plant in Ningxia. But these plants will take a few months to ramp up to full production capacity.

So, What Does This All Mean?

Assuming silicon prices stay comparatively low or drop further, this means the cost of solar power systems in Australia could decrease soon. Emphasis on “could”.

PVInsight’s solar PV module weekly spot price at the time of writing indicated mono PERC solar panels¹ are currently averaging around USD 21 cents a watt at the factory gate. This is quite a drop over just a few months, but the Australian dollar’s value at the moment isn’t quite as strong as it was a couple of months ago against the Chinese yuan or US greenback.

The prospect of cheaper panels soon-ish may encourage some to put off purchasing a system. But this may not be a wise move, for two reasons:

• Silicon pricing is only one of many elements that contribute to the cost of a system, and the world isn’t exactly a stable place at the moment. Stuff can happen. We’ve had some solid lessons on that in the past few years.
• Each day your rooftop is bereft of solar panels is another day of missing solar energy savings and paying your electricity retailer more than you otherwise would.

.. and between the two (or either), that could mean any anticipated saving through holding off is lost.