Drought, Heatwaves Pressure Solar Panel And Polysilicon Prices

China’s solar manufacturing industry has experienced its share of challenges recently – and now drought and heatwave conditions in some parts of the country are taking their toll.

The price of polysilicon – an essential material used in the production of solar panels – has been elevated for quite some time.

The pandemic pushed down the price of polysilicon initially as demand briefly plummeted. At one point in July 2020 it was below USD $7/kg. Then demand rebounded and this coincided with fires at a couple of major polysilicon production facilities; pushing prices up. And that trend has continued since.

The global polysilicon spot price average was sitting at around US$39.10 per kg last week (Source: Bernreuter). It’s been reasonably stable for the last couple of weeks, but it could edge up a little again.

Sichuan Sizzles, Sending Solar Manufacturing Offline

Sichuan is a southwestern Chinese province that is home to a lot of solar manufacturing; including polysilicon and panel production.

Sichuan relies heavily on hydropower for electricity generation. Extreme heat waves and drought have seen hydropower generation drop, while electricity demand is increasing as residents and businesses crank up their air-conditioning. Authorities stepped in last week, directing various manufacturers to curb or shut down operations in order to conserve power. Among them were the Sichuan operations of Tongwei, which is the world’s largest polysilicon supplier.

It was hoped that these restrictions could be lifted by today, and based on that, PVInfoLink estimated a 1,800-2,300-MT decrease in monthly polysilicon production volume. But it appears things have gone from bad to worse, with the province activating its highest emergency response level yesterday.

Beyond polysilicon, panel production in the province has also been hit. According to Bloomberg, solar panel manufacturing giant Jinko Solar said two of its plants in Sichuan have been impacted and the company isn’t sure when it will be able to crank up operations again¹.

In addition to this, several polysilicon plants across China have been under maintenance, hampering output – and I seem to remember another fire at a facility not so long ago. This is the “season” for fires at polysilicon plants.

So, When Will Polysilicon Prices Finally Drop?

Events of recent years have made me a devotee of Murphy’s Law, so I’m not the guy to try and answer this. Others have attempted to though and believe there is some light appearing at the end of the tunnel – and it might not be an oncoming train. Some are pointing to next year seeing sustained downward movement given the amount of manufacturing capacity in the pipeline.

Among the new capacity is Canadian Solar’s first crack at polysilicon production. The company’s majority-owned subsidiary, CSI Solar Co., Ltd., plans to start construction of a high-purity polysilicon production facility this year in Haidong City in Qinghai Province. The plant will have an annual output of 50,000 tons.

While that facility isn’t expected to commence production until mid-2024, there is other new capacity coming online well before this plant.

So, perhaps brighter days not too far ahead for polysilicon prices – but we’ll see what Murphy has to say about that.