EV uptake may be accelerating, but Australia needs to push the pedal to the metal to meet emissions goals says the Electric Vehicle Council.
A new report from the Electric Vehicle Council indicates more than an estimated 83,000 electric vehicles are on Australia’s roads now1. It shouldn’t be long before the 100,000 milestone is reached considering there were only around 44,000 at the beginning of 2022.
Some other highlights from the Council’s Australian Electric Vehicle Industry Recap 2022:
- 39,353 new electric vehicles were purchased last year.
- The top 3 EV models purchased in Australia in 2022 were the Tesla Model 3 (10,887), Tesla Model Y (8,717) and BYD Atto 3 (2,113).
- 70 different EV models were delivered to Australian customers last year2. 38 were BEVs and 32 were PHEVs.
- 3.8 per cent of all new cars purchased in 2022 were electric. In 2021, it was just under 2 per cent.
- The number of public chargers increased from 3,413 in 2021 to 4,943 in 2022.
- Fast DC chargers were up from 231 to 365.
You can download the full Australian Electric Vehicle Industry Recap 2022 here. You’ll need to provide your name and email address to get access, but I think it’s safe to suggest the Electric Vehicle Council are the good guys .
Fuel Efficiency Standards Crucial For Picking Up Pace
Commenting on last year’s results and the road ahead for EVs in Australia, Electric Vehicle Council Chief Executive Behyad Jafari said:
“If you think you’re seeing more EVs on the road than you used to, you’re right, but if we want to hit our national emissions targets we won’t make it on this current trajectory,” Mr. Jafari stated. “We can definitely hit these goals, but not without an ambitious fuel efficiency standard to expand the supply of EVs to Australia. The federal government should introduce this standard this year as a matter of urgency.”
Why fuel efficiency standards are so important to improving supply of electric vehicles into the Australian market – and improving affordability – is explained in detail here.
To its credit and unlike its predecessor, the Albanese Government is giving this a red-hot go. In August last year it signalled it was time to have an “orderly and sensible discussion” concerning the role vehicle fuel efficiency standards could play, and in September a broad consultation on Australia’s first National Electric Vehicle Strategy commenced. In the discussion paper, the term “fuel efficiency standards” was mentioned 18 times.
More than 500 submissions were made, and 440 of those were published last Friday. Among them was the Electric Vehicle Council’s contribution.
Mr. Jafari says there’s no reason for Australia to continue to be a laggard on EV uptake.
“The enthusiasm is there in abundance, we just need our governments to continue the policy reform that makes it easy to transition away from the exhaust pipe.”
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Michael,
I still don’t see the value of “an ambitious fuel efficiency standard” – IMO, it’s TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE.
Per the BITRE report titled Motor Vehicles, Australia: January 2022 (First issue), dated Oct 2022, as at 31 Jan 2022 there were:
* 20.7 million registered motor vehicles – an increase of approximately 2% between Jan 2021 & Jan 2022;
* A further 4.5 million trailers, caravans, campers and plant & equipment (e.g. agricultural tractors, all-terrain vehicles, forklifts, golf buggies) not included in total registered vehicles.
If Australia achieved 99% EV sales by 2030, even at that pace, there would still be around 80% of the remaining legacy vehicle fleet still requiring petroleum fuels for ongoing operations.
https://twitter.com/tomdquinn/status/1541635198148046849
Meanwhile, global gasoil/diesel fuel production has already declined from around 26 Mb/d in 2015-18 to below 23 Mb/d in mid-2021.
https://crashoil.blogspot.com/2021/11/el-pico-del-diesel-edicion-de-2021.html
Total world liquids production has recovered to 99% of 2018 average level but crude oil plus condensate remains more than 4 Mb/d below late 2018 levels.
https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1615692186682814467
The petroleum industry is not producing oil like it used to.
The quality of oil is declining.
That means there’s less energy content per volume of oil produced.
That means less net energy available from petroleum products for economic activities.
https://www.artberman.com/2023/01/18/theyre-not-making-oil-like-they-used-to-stealth-peak-oil/
What will the price of petroleum fuels be in 2030 to operate Australia’s perhaps more than 15 million remaining ICEVs? $5/litre? $10? $20?
Would there still be enough petroleum fuel supplies to meet demand in the coming years? Perhaps not – see the “Oil Market” section at: https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/market-overview-q3-2022
Geoff,
we fundamentally disagree on nearly all things climate change, amongst other things, but I’m curious as to what, if anything, you consider the solution if we’re already in a ‘too little too late’ situation?
Per my earlier post in this thread the car that replaces the current one will almost certainly be another ICEV due to cost and capability. I’m skeptical that, barring government outlawing the sale of affordable reliable ICEV options, 99% of new sales, let alone 99% of all sales, will be EV by 2030. Petrol will almost certainly be required until 2040 or even later.
As noted in my previous post, even a roughly 250% increase on fuel to $5 per litre would still make current ICEV choices a better option than EV choices. But my situation isn’t the same as yours or others.
We can find common ground on some things, even if we fundamentally disagree about the whys e.g. end development of areas at risk of bushfires, flood, or sea rise – whether climate change is fact or pure fiction, but is there any common ground or solutions to be found as regards EVs?
I’m curious.
George Kaplan,
“I’m skeptical that, barring government outlawing the sale of affordable reliable ICEV options, 99% of new sales, let alone 99% of all sales, will be EV by 2030. Petrol will almost certainly be required until 2040 or even later.”
It seems to me you (among probably many others) are simply unable to comprehend the possibility of a relentlessly increasing scarcity of petroleum fuels in your lifetime. It just doesn’t compute because you’ve never experienced it. Sure there were fuel supply/price shocks in the past – first global shock in 1973, second in 1979 – but they were primarily geopolitical. This one is due to an entirely different circumstance – primarily resource depletion (but exacerbated by the Russian invasion) – already manifesting with declining global supplies of gasoil/diesel fuels (before the invasion). I’d suggest it will spread to a decline in aviation jet fuels next, then petrol. Timing is anyone’s guess, but I’d suggest the accumulating warning signs are already there for the top three oil producers – USA, Saudi Arabia & Russia – and declining inventories/SPR stocks.
I look at the evidence/data – clearly you don’t/won’t.
So George, buy your next ICEV and find out in the fulness of time whether it’s a good decision or not. ?
When is a manufacturer going to release a mass produced budget EV?
EV’s are all flagship premium cars in their lineups.
This doesn’t really address the ICEV to EV barriers of capital cost, range etc.
As this article from January that I’ve previously posted shows, EVs simply do not offer everyone the value that an ICEV does: https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/the-chart-that-explains-why-electric-cars-may-never-pay-for-themselves/news-story/41ac37b434bff36bcc90760c5ed851fc
Obviously it depends on usage. If you do a lot of mileage and can self recharge they may be a better option than an ICEV alternative – with enough time, travel and petrol savings it could theoretically pay for itself. Conversely if you don’t do a lot of mileage, and especially if you can’t self recharge, then an ICEV is almost certainly a better option, not to mention safer and more environmentally friendly.
Looking at some quick and dirty numbers, even at $5 per litre, as horrific as that sounds, an ICEV would be a better investment for my circumstances than an EV. And of the 20 something models available (31 according to a Feb 2022 carsguide piece), the vast majority cost more than the average Australian salary. And of the few that don’t, most are short range and thus simply not fit for purpose.
https://www.carsguide.com.au/ev/advice/every-electric-car-available-in-australia-85008
Fuel efficiency changes won’t directly affect this. The worst offenders for fuel efficiency tend to be SUVs and 4WDs, which tend to be on the higher end of the market so forcing a switch to an EV would be easy, assuming no range differences. The … budget end of the ICEV market however simply doesn’t have any options, yet.
Sorry about ‘spamming’ this one article but this news item may be of interest: https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/hitech/2023-hyundai-ioniq-6-australian-details-revealed/news-story/3eabee21471d3fa527b595c4e05d33c6
It offers nice range, but the boot likes a little small so may not work for picking up groceries. And of course the price is ridiculous as is always the case for EVs – roughly twice the average Australians spent on new cars last year, and three times the average spent on small cars.
I like that one. The Ioniq 6 appears superior to the Tesla Model 3 long range and costs a little less, so things are moving in the right direction. Also note we’ve actually had a little bit of inflation lately. While it’s not much by my standards, it does mean EV prices are declining in real terms. Hopefully, we’ll soon see the introduction of relatively low cost EVs here. (There are plenty in China, but they’re generally not up to our standards.)
Declining in real terms doesn’t help much if your income is static but your cost of living is rising 30% or so.
Okay that may be a slight exaggeration – I’ve no idea what the real rise is when everything is averaged out, but one grocery product alone has risen 65%, others have risen 20% and 30%. Then there’s insurance. Some folk are reporting their insurance has gone up 3 or 10 times what they used to because of flooding. Oh I get the rationale – one woman opted out and shortly thereafter lost here house to flooding, but it’s yet another increase. And then there’s FiTs which have crashed roughly 60% – closer to 75% for a relative. The fact a car price has barely risen doesn’t really help any.