This morning, at 2:00 am Adelaide time, I watched Elon Musk’s “Resilience Day” announcement. I wasn’t happy about the timing. I had under four hours warning of the event and less than 3 hours sleep.
But I made the sacrifice so I could tell you not only how Tesla is coping with supply chain disruptions and raw material price increases, but also how Elon Musk is working to ensure humanity’s long term survival.
In a four-hour presentation, Elon delivered what he called a “Four Horseman” speech. He described how Tesla was dealing with:
- War: How Tesla is ensuring production isn’t delayed by war related supply chain disruptions.
- Disease: The Tesla Shanghai factory has been closed down because of COVID, but this will only be a temporary disruption.
- Famine: Tesla and Elon Musk’s Boring Company are working on ways to overcome the famine of raw materials.
- Death: Musk is working to protect humanity from the threat of nuclear war and the disaster of nuclear winter that could follow. He is taking steps that could save civilization or humanity itself.
This painting shows the four horsemen of the apocalypse. From left to right they are Death, Famine, War, and War again because apparently you can never have enough war. The first War is Dirt Poor War who is not even smart enough to wear more than undies into battle, while the second one is Snazzy War who fights with drone arrows and is never seen without his leopard print saddle blanket.
I am quick to admit many of Elon’s schemes are impractical and his good ideas normally take far longer to bear fruit than he originally claims. But I’m behind him 100% when he says that we, as a species, need to work harder at ensuring the survival of future generations.
A Weird Location
When the presentation began it was exactly 16 minutes after it was supposed to start, which was an extra 16 minutes I could have spent in bed. I was surprised to see the first image was a drone shot of Elon Musk standing before a pool illuminated with eerie blue light.
I thought this meant he was going to tell us he had developed a solar-tiled pool that would soon be as popular and affordable as his solar tile roof. That is, almost unavailable and incredibly expensive. But it turned out the pool was there for a totally different reason, which I’ll get to later.
A New Powerwall Sneak Preview
What we were shown was a sneak preview of the new Tesla Powerwall 3. But because numbering Powerwalls 1, 2, 3, is far too mundane for Tesla, it’s not called that. Especially since they now pretend the Powerwall 1 never existed. Instead, they’ve given it the funky name Powerwall Infinite. It’s a very appropriate name, as that’s about what it costs. But a high price is not surprising, as it takes the technology in a new and unexpected direction.
The Threat Of War
Before showing us his new toys, Elon Musk had some important things to say:
“It, uh, has always been my, urh, intention to, er, make humanity a multiplanetary species. Only by colonizing Mars and other planets can human survival be ensured if disaster strikes one world. But at the moment, we’re all trapped here together. We can’t get to Mars before Putin can press the button.
If you think there’s only a 1% chance everything humanity has worked towards over the past 10,000 years will be wiped out by nuclear war, then that chance is over a trillion times too high. This is why here at Tesla, we’ve been working hard to make sure we can live in safety on earth today, so tomorrow we can live among the stars.”
There were are a lot more “uhs”, “urhs”, “ums”, and “ers” in what he said, but I edited them out for clarity and so this blog post wouldn’t go over 10,000 words.
He continued:
“There’s no such thing as a limited nuclear war. The logic of escalation is, if Putin uses one nuclear weapon and the world doesn’t give him what he wants, he then has to use 50 or 1,000 or 5,000. Because if he backs down at any point it’s over for him, and he knows it. But if other nations give in to his demands he will continue to use the threat of nuclear war to get what he wants until he’s satisfied. And that will be never. Trust me on this, I know how he thinks.”
Elon then went on to explain the danger of nuclear winter:
“The threat of nuclear winter was downplayed because atomic test studies showed modern nuclear bombs wouldn’t lift material high enough into the atmosphere to block the sun long term. We now know multiple nuclear detonations in an area the size of a city, along with the firestorms they create, will funnel smoke and debris into the upper atmosphere and cause long term cooling.
Just one of these events could cripple agriculture for years to come, while multiple events could destroy civilization as we know it and return humanity to a dark age from which we may never emerge. We know Russia’s strategy is to saturate targets with multiple warheads. Even if Putin uses weapons inside Russia’s borders, he can still put the entire world at risk. Multiple nuclear explosions in a remote Siberian forest could be enough to cause civilization’s collapse.”
At this point I was so depressed I was longing for the old Elon Musk who would do stupid things like smash car windows or bring out a stupid dancing robot.
A Boring Way To Secure Oil Supply
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted supplies of oil, gas, coal, nickel, neon, helium, and wheat. Elon Musk revealed he’s had a hand in helping secure the supply of one of these commodities. Surprisingly, for a man who is famous for starting an electric car company, it’s oil.
Elon explained his rationale as follows:
“The world needs to get off oil as quickly as it can. But if we don’t secure supply over the next few years, Putin will use oil as a weapon. Russia was the world’s second largest oil exporter and he will bribe nations to support him with below market price oil and prevent the world from presenting a united front.
We can’t let this happen, otherwise we run the risk he’ll turn to war again. But this time he’ll make damn sure his trucks have decent tires and his tanks are well-maintained.”
He went on to say the world needs a way to immediately extract large amounts of oil from fields that are either old and nearly exhausted, or difficult to exploit with conventional drilling techniques. The Boring Company, of which he is the founder, is apparently up to the task. Using their giant boring machines to create a wide tunnel — either straight down or at an angle — allows oil to seep out of the deposit and into the tunnel where it can be recovered through simple pumping. This eliminates the need for expensive extraction techniques such as CO2 or water injection.
The amount of oil recovered by this technique will fall rapidly after two to three years, but Musk said this length of time would be enough. He also said it was not a low cost method of extracting oil but:
“Cheap enough to stop the world being held hostage by a madman.”
The Boring Company is currently working on their 4th test well in an oil deposit at Anahim Lake just east of the Canadian Rockies in British (Canadian) Columbia. Oil production from the four wells is expected to soon reach 100,000 barrels a day.
A Solar-Free Powerwall
It was then we arrived at the most impressive part of the presentation and found out why it was being held in front of a pool.
Elon explained it contained heavy water:
“Don’t worry, it’s perfectly harmless. You can even drink it if you want. If you drink enough it will sterilize you, but if that’s what you want, that’s okay.”
He then said if there was a nuclear winter, people would need heat and electricity to survive, but there would be no sunlight for solar power. However, he had something neat to show us that would get around the problem.
He then walked off stage and pulled a lever. This caused the new Tesla Powerwall 3 — or Powerwall Infinite, as it’s called — to rise up out of the pool.
The water just seemed to flow right off it. Probably because it was heavy.
Elon then announced:
“The Powerwall Infinite will supply 5 kilowatts of continuous electrical power and 10 kilowatts of heat. It will do this for over 200 years without sunshine because it’s not a battery but a thorium/heavy water Small Modular Reactor.”
He than handed the presentation over to the Powerwall Division’s Chief Engineer, Louise Slotin, who gave the following details:
- Power: 5 kilowatts electric, 10 kilowatts thermal
- Design Life: 240 years
- Fuel type: Thorium
- Reactor: Thorium/Heavy Water
- Dimensions: 170 cm × 80 cm × 25 cm
- Weight: 381 kg
- Supporting Hardware: Gateway Thermal Exhaust Port
- Warranty: 5 years
Tesla Powerwall Infinite’s Thorium/Heavy Water design is an improvement on the NASA-developed SAFE reactor. Because it’s thorium fueled there is no nuclear weapon proliferation risk and because of its low power, even in a worst-case situation, there is next to no radiation hazard.
To demonstrate how tough it is, Slotin threw a steel ball at the reactor and it bounced off causing no visible harm.
After the Tesla Powerwall infinite sunk back into the pool, Elon Musk returned to the stage and told us how much it would cost:
“$440,000.”
Note that’s American dollars and not Australian dollarydoos.
On the bright side, Musk says it’s available to certain select customers right now. Everyone else will need to put down a $40,000 deposit and go on a waiting list.
Obviously, this is not a product I can recommend, as it’s clearly not intended for normal human beings. Even if a purchaser valued every kilowatt-hour of electricity it produced at 20 American cents, it would take 50 years to pay for itself. Of course, if a nuclear winter did occur, its owner would probably value its electricity and heat more highly than that.
Nuclear Oil
Musk then explained that even though Mars only receives 59% as much sunlight as earth, it would be possible to use solar power there if it wasn’t for giant dust storms that block the sun for months at a time. This means a future Mars colony would need Tesla Powerwall Infinites to be viable. Musk described how they would provide heat and light to underground tunnel farms bored through martian rock.
Powerwall Infinites have already been well tested and are currently in use in three of the boring machines used for the enhanced oil recovery project in Canada.
Because oil can be refined into rocket fuel onsite and because his SpaceX Starship rocket — which will have its first orbital flight next month — is capable of landing anywhere there is a flat patch of ground, there will potentially be a wide range of remote oil production sites that can also double as launch sites for the world’s largest heavy lift rocket.
Question Time
Elon and Slotin then took questions from the crowd. The first one was:
“Are you still going to fight Putin?”
“I hereby challenge Vladimir Putin to single combat. Stakes are Ukraine.”
Musk’s reply was:
“If you are going to take everything on social media seriously, you should be a lot more concerned about the tweets of our previous President.”
That was a pretty reasonable reply by Musk standards. If I’d just given a looong talk about the dangers of nuclear war, nuclear winter, and the work I was doing to save humanity itself, and then topped it off by showing a nuclear reactor I’d invented that fits in a freaking closet — I’d expect to be asked about that rather than a bad, off-hand, internet joke I’d made a couple of weeks ago.
But hey America, go right ahead and ask the questions important to you. Always be true to yourself and never stoop to using sarcasm like you’re some sort of South Australian running on only two and a half hours of sleep.
The next question was on nuclear winter:
“Could Putin detonate nuclear bombs in a Russian oil field to create a nuclear winter?”
This question seemed to surprise Musk. After collecting himself, he rapidly said he didn’t think it would be effective. Then he added that because Russia was heavily focused on oil production he doubted they would even consider it.
The next few questions were more congratulations than inquiries, but then there was a question with some weight to it:
“Given the Powerwall Small Modular Reactor is out of reach of all but the extremely wealthy, what steps are you taking to help the large majority of the world’s people survive the disaster of a nuclear winter?”
Musk’s response to this question, like the first, was measured and reasonable. He’s getting so good at sensibly answering questions I think he may have actually become an adult at some point in the last 50 years:
“I’m not the one who’s threatening the world with nuclear weapons. I’m the one doing what he can to protect the world from entering another dark age from which it may never emerge. Even if the worst happened right now and the world is plunged into the darkness of a nuclear winter, what I have done so far will ensure a small team of engineers, scientists, and their families will survive and lead us into a brighter future where we will become a multiplanetary species and never again be faced with the threat of extinction.
I will do everything I can to guarantee humanity’s survival. There is nothing I will not do to achieve this goal. I am doing all I can and I will do more. We are investigating what can be done to increase agricultural production in low light conditions. We have top minds working on it.”
Elon was then was asked to give names of specific people he had working on agriculture and he simply repeated:
“Top minds.”
Elon Musk then said they were out of time. He made his way to the edge of the pool and, with his back to the mob, he spread his arms wide for balance and walked across the heavy water to the other side.
About Ronald Brakels
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Well written Ronald?informative and amusing at the same time.
Especially if it’s an AFJ.
Happy 1st April to you too Ronald
I got as far as wall mounted SMRs and realised what today’s date is
Nice work Ron, you may have done your part here to save humanity.
This may be the single best effort I have ever experienced, I was truely halfway though telling someone about this before I needed to stop and acknowledge your fine efforts on this day.
1st April? ?
Lots of Thorium at Iluka’s sand mine at Eneabba (WA). And a Russian geologist even danced on it to prove our government inspectors how safe it is and I am not joking!
If this is an April Fools Day joke, Ronald, it’s a pretty convincing one! After all, Musk has said stranger things before.
April fools!
April fools.
Thank you Ronald for taking your time to watch this in the middle of the night and give us an as always funny and quick summary.
Obviously these new batteries are not meant for private households. Maybe that’s why it has a different name. I can imagine power companies having them and using them for at least half their intended life span in communal batteries and heating. I am from Germany and there are already systems of locally produced heat that is supplied to households called “Fernwärme”. At the moment it is produced by other means, in the town where I come from they use waste from the farming industry. They also produce power there. But this would be a way to be independent from any constant input for a long time, and therefore maybe worth it’s money.
Also I think how Musk uses all these different avenues and just tries what is possible is just amazing.
I have to admit, you had me going there for a while Ron. Very well done. But your best joke is Design Life of the Powerwall Infinite: 240 years. Warranty: 5 years. That is just so Tesla!
I know it’s April first but come on this article can’t be serious surely, saving humanity one luxury car at a time.
That 1% of me that wasn’t sure this was satire made me Google the Powerwall Infinite…
Your mission was a success!
This has to be an April’s Fool joke????
Ronald you dog… you nearly got me.
Best April fool’s joke I’ve seen for a long time.
Well played.
Hold on lasts for 240 years and you only get a five year warranty? I’d want my grandkids to be able to make a claim.
Thank you for presenting Elon’s speech/discussion in a way that laypersons people like me, who aren’t educated in this field, can understand it. Despite everything, Elon rocks!
Excellent piece of journalistic poetry. The mind is on its best when deprived of a good sleep. (Elon barely sleeps)
Come on!
The article is full of red herrings…….
It’s a AFJ (the date is a clue!)
What’s a red herring?
Always on point, Ron
Pranking his readers
Reading his stuff
Is riveting at times
Lots of fools
Fall
Over the
Obvious
Laughter as
Soon as the…
Joke’s
On everyone that read it
Kooky and
Entertaining reading, indeed!
It is too long for a joke. And it is too far from reality to be a good joke.
Great work Ronny…. As always your quirky humour sucked me in …
I googled/YouTubed/searched high and low for the same video to hear it from the Musk’s mouth….. thinking Ronny boy obviously has the insiders super subscription, putting him front seat as it should be for these sciency type events…. I have put a tag on all my devices for April 1 2023 and wait with dated breath for next exciting episode… Cheers ??????
I fell for it! Good one
He certainly is Regina, just amazing.
Hi Ronald – and Geoffrey Miell
In spite of the AFJ joke, I feel this site is in need of a serious reality check.
It appears UK and European Coal Plants are having a field day presently – many being brought back online, and many running at a high % of capacity. And this is not a joke. It appears renewables are simply not keeping up with the normal increases in demand. 2022 may yet be the year of highest coal demand. Perhaps EVs have added extra demand, that is not being met?
Geoffrey Miell often quotes Dr Hansen as a Top Climate Change scientist reference to explore the doom and gloom of not becoming carbon neutral, until Nicholas Geary pointed out to him that Hansen was a nuclear advocate.
In fact. the following link shows Hansen, and other top Climate Change scientists, had presented an open letter to anti-nuclear proponents that states, I quote “… there is no credible path to climate stabilization that does NOT include a substantial role for nuclear power,”. (my capitalisation)
I have to give Geoffrey the benefit-of-the-doubt and assume he was simply ignorant of this letter – from 4 x Top Climate Change scientists – as the alternative implies willful academic malfeasance.
The letter further implores: “But continued opposition to nuclear power threatens humanity’s ability to avoid dangerous climate change.”.
So, where is Geoffrey coming from? Does he think now (if he was unaware of this letter), that the World can simply ignore this Top Climate Change scientist’s pronouncement? Or is he simply small-minded enough to be only looking at Australia (which I agree is PROBABLY better placed than other countries, to operate on intermittent sources due to good sun and wind attributes – but it is clear that this is by no means certain). SA uses Vic as a HUMONGOUS battery – that is likely to become unavailable in the future – what then? Back to burning prodigious quantities of NG, which they already do from time-to-time?
ScoMo has just announced financial support for refineries – to secure our energy future; and as of 6th April, Woodside’s Scarborough Plant is expected to export its first LNG shipment in 2026. We are staying with fossil fuels, it appears, because intermittent sources are simply not keeping up. Maybe a lack of rare minerals available, maybe batteries are simply too expensive for bulk storage. and only suitable for premium FCAS use?
I feel it is too early to be deploying EV’s on a large scale – they simply ADD to demand on our electrical grid, by shifting CHG contributions from petroleum, to a higher GHG contribution from coal. We have now already lost 8-9 years of nuclear development time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/03/world/nuclear-energy-climate-change-scientists-letter/index.html
Australia does not appear to be providing a better option.
Ian Thompson,
“Geoffrey Miell often quotes Dr Hansen as a Top Climate Change scientist reference to explore the doom and gloom of not becoming carbon neutral…
I’ve also referred in this blog in various threads to other leading climate change scientists, including Prof H.J. Schellnhuber, Prof Will Steffen, Prof Michael E Mann, Johan Rockström, etc. I refer to an overwhelming range of evidence/data from multiple sources all pointing in the same direction.
“until Nicholas Geary pointed out to him that Hansen was a nuclear advocate.”
But is Hansen a nuclear expert? I’d suggest not. Hansen has stated: “I do not have the expertise or insight to evaluate the cost and technology readiness estimates.” and: “I have always been agnostic on nuclear power.”
See my comments at: https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/submarines-nuclear-not-power-stations/#comment-1269420
ScoMo has just announced financial support for refineries – to secure our energy future…”
Only for the two remaining operating refineries in Australia until mid-2027 – what then?
And where will the crude oil stocks come from in future to feed these two refineries, Ian? Where are the other fuel supplies coming from in future?
I’d suggest you look at Matt’s data-rich posts:
See Fig 11, 12 & 14 at: https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-oil-stocks-consumption-cover
See Fig 15, 19, 20, 21, & 27 at: https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-fuel-import-dependencies-sep-2021-data
Asia-Pacific crude oil production is in decline – see Fig 1 at: https://crudeoilpeak.info/asia-peak-oil-update-nov-2021
Which countries/regions have spare crude oil production capacity, and more importantly, is it enough? Goehring Rozencwajg suggested on Mar 24:
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-oil-crisis-is-unfolding-in-slow-motion
IMO, Federal Labor & Liberal/Nationals Coalition don’t have a clue what needs to be done to effectively deal with the escalating existential threats including:
1) the climate crisis;
2) worsening energy and food security;
3) Covid-19.
I’d suggest a vote for them is a vote for civilisation collapse.
I’m inclined to agree with you Geoff that a vote for either of Federal Labour or the LNP Coalition is akin to a ‘vote for civilization collapse”.
We don’t know for sure yet the true extent of voter disillusionment with our two major parties (although it does seem substantial overall). Some voters still seem undecided as to ‘just who’ they will end up ultimately voting for.
Those of the extremist right-wing who still advocate a “Trump” version of populism for Australia seem to have completely forgotten that President Trump sought financial and other support from none other than Vladimir Putin.
IMO, President Putin represents the complete opposite of what we here in Australia define as democracy. Despite this, ex-President Trump during his last campaign for the USA Presidency sought Putin’s help in achieving his goal of being elected POTUS in 2016.
Just a few days ago, on April 16th, 2022, the “Business Insider” media group reported that “The former president has long expressed admiration for Putin, often describing the Russian president as “smart” and praising his war strategy as “genius” in the early days of the invasion”.
See: https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-criticized-nato-dodged-russias-evil-actions-on-fox-news-2022-4.
President’s Trump personal admiration of Putin remains intact and no matter what question he is asked – including questions about the slaughter of civilians in the Ukraine – he avoids saying anything at all negative about Putin.
I’m not at all sure I could personally handle the mental gymnastics involved in claiming “I stand for Freedom” while at the same time expressing deep admiration for another political system that completely opposes what I claim to stand for.
But that is the situation Trump supporters find themselves in, whether they realise it or not.
A similar but far worse situation exists in France. Marine Le Pen, who has achieved world-wide prominence as leader of the anti-immigration far-right “National Rally” nationalist group in France, continues to publicly express her desire for what she calls a return to French values, She tells her French supporters that a vote for her is a vote for “our civilization, our culture, our language”.
That’s language that will sound familiar and be music to the ears of most ‘right-wingers’. here in Australia. ,
The reality though is that Le Pen has been even closer to Putin in the past than Trump.
She has very recently “confirmed that if she unseats President Emmanuel Macron in France’s April 24 presidential runoff, she will pull France out of NATO’s military command and dial back French support for the whole European Union”.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/frances-le-pen-warns-sending-weapons-ukraine-84061565
Frances withdrawal from NATO would end up being of far more benefit to Putin’s long term aims than it would be to all the democratic countries that comprise the EU and the financial stability of their banking systems
During her 2017 campaign, Le Pen flew to Moscow to personally meet Putin.
It’s worth noting that prior to her 2017 French presidential election campaign and her visit to Putin, Le Pen had received a loan of $10 million Euros from a Russian bank. She herself lacked the funds needed to support her campaign, and no French bank would lend her the money she needed.
That refusal by French banks arose because of a past history of loan repayment defaults by other extremist organisations she had been associated with,.
The Russian bank involved seemed to have a different view of things though.
Putin has long had a strategy of promoting ‘discord’ within a country. He believes that ANY political ‘discord’ regardless of its nature weakens a country and can thus play a useful role in undermining established institutions and governments.
To my eyes, supporters of ‘extremist right wing’ policies may well be, in some cases, unwitting accomplices to a sophisticated campaign aimed at creating ‘discord’ within established democracies, in order to bring about their eventual collapse.
I’m suggesting that there is a real possibility that the Trump version of populism they espouse will lead ultimately to a collapse of ‘democracy’ as we know it today, because of its origins.
Putin seems well versed in Russian political history and would know that during the period 1860s 70s and 80s “Populism” temporarily flourished in Russia among just some of the more elite members of society. However its idealistic aims never came to fruition despite the efforts by Populists to promote their political views among the the then largely peasant society.
Some disappointed “populists'” reacted to this by radicalizing, and adopting terrorist tactics in order to bring about a ‘revolution’. That didn’t work either but finally a small group succeeded in assassinating Tsar Alexander II. That didn’t work out well for them at all. Tsar Alexander was simply replaced by another Tsar who was determined to exact revenge.
I’m sure we can all see some parallels with what occurred in the USA when Trump supporters attempted to take over the reins of American government following the last USA presidential election.
To quote from a UK blog
“As our elected representatives, MP’s owe us the truth. And yet, we have a political system that operates as if honesty doesn’t matter.” …
“Our politicians were elected to lead, not mislead”
See: https://actions.fullfact.org/petitions/mps-owe-us-truth/
Although the blog author is referring to the current UK political situation, it seems a singularly apt summation of our current Australian political leadership.
Here’s the NEM states wholesale electricity prices:
https://aemo.com.au/Energy-systems/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-NEM/Data-Dashboard-NEM
It averaged around 5 cents per kilowatt-hour last year. The UK, which has an existing nuclear industry, is locked into paying around 21 cents per kilowatt-hour as a minimum for nuclear electricity from Hinkley C. No one is going to build a nuclear power station in Australia in return for 5 cents a kilowatt-hour.
What is happening is coal, is gradually being driven out of the market, as shown here:
https://opennem.org.au/energy/au/?range=all&interval=fin-year
If we decided to decarbonize faster by having a carbon price, rather than encouraging companies to decide to invest in nuclear generation, it would just lead to a more rapid build-out of renewables.
Yes Ronald – but you are not modelling for an entire SYSTEM.
In your second link, you cannot graphically even SEE the Battery Generation data in the overall graph – and I have a 43″ 4k screen! The graph is highlighted by a MASSIVE amount of Coal generation (the large black area).
At present, SA usually runs on solar and a little wind during the day (with only 80 MW from NG – for grid-stability purposes – those big ‘spinny-things’ are obviously working well), but either uses a massive amount of green-washed Dirty Filthy Brown Coal at night – or ramps up it’s NG generators.
We have to be thinking what needs to happen in the future, when we no longer have NG or Coal generation available to ‘fill in’ the night-time gaps in Demand – especially as often happens, that the total generation of Wind is abysmally low for a day or two, and we have cloudy days.
To my analytical mind – this means we need batteries (lots of them), and/or some other large low-GHG form of energy – such as Hydro, and/or Nuclear.
SA’s demand is typically 1,500 MW or so, meaning in worst-case worst-case weather you might need nearly 60 hours at about 1,500 MW = 90,000 MWhr of capacity. That is, give or take, an total battery generation capacity of 1.5 GW, and total storage capacity of 90,000 MWhr. Compare this with your tiddly ‘Big Battery’ 150 MW for 194 MWhr.
You are going to need 10 times that generating capacity, and 5 or more times the storage capacity – to become self-sufficient. And be prepared to replace these at the rate of about once set every 8 years (assuming battery life of 15 years).
BTW, I won’t wear the argument that you’ll just, at all times. draw the power you need from across the interconnector. Once Victoria no longer has coal generation, they may well be in the same boat regarding a bad weather front moving through. Every night, I see SA drawing green-washed brown coal energy this way – as Vic simply ramps up (or doesn’t ramp down) their generation to suit.
Don’t get me wrong – I think roof-top PV is a great way for those people with a suitable house and financial capacity, to ultimately save something on their heavily subsidised implementation – and at the same time reduce GHG generation.
Does your Wholesale energy figure include a component to cover the rooftop subsidy? Isn’t it heavily influenced by the very low price of Coal?
Does it included a factor for the as-yet not implemented battery requirement.
Sorry Ronald – I think your reference to the low cost of energy in the NEM is tainted by the very low cost of coal, and the daylight low cost of heavily subsidised roof-top PV. This figure is sort of irrelevant, as it does not present a realistic cost for the full implementation of a SYSTEM.
Like Hansen, I to am a little bit ‘agnostic’ about nuclear. But I do think we should be progressing new nuclear in parallel with battery developments – when we can drop one technology once we see a complete SYSTEM in operation. I’d hate us to get to 2050 (I’ve used the term ‘us’, not ‘me’, for obvious reasons), only to find ‘sh**, we’ve stuffed up – now lets back-track 40 years’.
After all, USA, France, Russia, China, all have nuclear development programs well underway. I’m not paranoid enough to think this is all, or solely for producing weapons-grade material – as most designs are being developed to the Gen-IV specifications – that mean low or no-proliferation potential, intrinsically safe operation, etc, etc.
Just in case batteries don’t, or cannot (should they lack of cruciaal component element) ‘make it’ – as I believe I am seeing. I simply do not want us to continue wandering deeper into a global warming catastrophe – which is what I’m seeing at the moment.
I agree with Des Scahill – who do we vote for – who will address Global Warming seriously. But I add – who is going to ‘green’ China, India, Bangladesh, Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, etc, etc?