Posts By Staff Writer On SolarQuotes

Solar Power Forecast for 2012: More stability, better forecasts, fewer conspiracies?

solar to grow in 2012?

This year should be the year that renewables start to take off in Australia:

  • We will have a carbon tax in place that will support renewable energy and overseas money is starting to flow in.
  • Large scale solar is finding funding, following the trend from overseas.
  • Chinese production of solar panels is bringing the cost of solar energy rapidly down towards that of fossil fuels.

But there is one factor that governments, both federal and state, need to provide: stability.

The solar industry needs to sense that financial support given in one year won’t be withdrawn the next when the going gets tough or when a newly-elected government reverses the previous government’s solar policy just because they can.

Certainly in the case of solar energy the governments’ efforts to forecast costs got an “F” grade this year. In a New Year’s resolution that we think makes complete sense, the Australian Solar Energy Society (AuSES) has promised to carefully watch over the government’s solar forecasting in 2012 on behalf of the nation’s solar industry. Reading between the lines it seems AuSES is none too pleased with the end-of-year report card for government forecasting agencies.

“As a national voice for Australia’s solar industry, the Australian Solar Energy Society has made a New Year’s resolution: to work more closely with Government agencies to ensure there’s no repeat of the 2011 solar forecast mistakes,” the society said in a recent release.

This brings an image of government forecasters sitting in class rooms watched over by AuSES teachers. The solar forecasters, gazing out into the playground where their fellow  number crunchers are all playing, before looking down and writing: “I must not bugger up the solar forecasts again” 100 times.

Am I being too harsh here? After all a forecast is just as it states: a forecast. But surely it should have some relation to the outcomes?

The AuSES release points to four key areas where forecasts had to be speedily revised to bring them to within a bull’s roar of real outcomes.

1. The Productivity Commission’s overstating of the cost of solar subsidies per tonne of CO2, forcing it to revise down the cost of solar subsidies from $431-$1041 to $177-$497.

2. The Energy White Paper, released by the federal government, which overstated solar’s cost by a factor of three.

3. The Treasury Department’s estimate that the country would have around 9 gigawatts of solar by 2050. However 1.2 gigawatts has already been installed, with yearly installations increasing ten fold since 2009.

4. The NSW Government, led by Barry “The Terminator” O’Farrell, forced to revise the cost of the state’s solar bonus scheme down by nearly a quarter.

Hardly inspiring is it? No wonder AuSES chief executive John Grimes described 2011 as “a horrible year for government solar forecasting”. And why are the forecasts always so against the interests of the solar industry? Is the reason for the solar forecasting simply the innocent result of a culture of excessive drinking and partying in our state and federal capitals? Or are there other motives at work?

There you go folks, a nice little conspiracy theory to kick off the year. Wishing you all a safe, happy and productive New Year.

Trust Solar Paints? Sure Can

By Rich Bowden

Honouring our commitment to keep readers informed of the pointy end of current solar research, this week’s column brings you the latest breakthrough on…..solar paint.

Yes that’s right. Solar paint. [Read more…]

Tiny Tokelau Takes on the World With Solar PV Plunge


By Rich Bowden

One of the least reported, though possibly one of the most important, announcements to come out of the recent climate change gabfest in Durban earlier this month was the one from tiny Tokelau, with a population 1,500 (and three cars as reported by the Guardian). The Pacific state said it is planning to replace its aged diesel generators with a $US7.5 million solar PV system.
[Read more…]

ACT Charges out of the Solar Sheds With Large-scale FIT

Interesting announcement this week that the ACT Government has passed legislation that clears the way for the introduction of the country’s first large-scale feed-in tariff (FIT). The solar bonus schemes have received a great deal of negative coverage in the last year or so as various state governments have backed away from their versions faster than cats at bath time (or is that being a little unkind to cats?).

[Read more…]

AuSES-sponsored Conference Spins the Big Solar Wheel

Two of the key issues covered this week at the Solar 2011 conference have been (1) the growing affordability of solar systems for both domestic and commercial outlooks as prices plummet, and (2) the growth of international large-scale solar projects. The first has been made possible by the growth of the Chinese solar energy sector and has made cheap solar panels available to Australian households and businesses.

However are we likely to see massive scale projects backed by the federal government in this country? Well yes if the event organisers have their way. [Read more…]

South Australia’s Solar Customers Step Up to the Plate

Well, South Australian solar customers can hold their heads high. A report released earlier this week by the Essential Services Commission of South Australia (ESCOSA) has found that around 80,000 electricity customers in the state will have installed rooftop solar systems by December of this year.

[Read more…]

Silex Solar Closes its Doors and Blames Usual Suspects

Somewhere in between the strenuous media frenzies that accorded the visit of The Windsors and later the Obamas, the Australian media managed to find time to report on the final demise of the (previously) only manufacturer of solar cells in this country.

The Homebush, NSW-based SilexSolar company — previously associated with BP — finally closed its doors this week with the loss of 45 jobs. The news was another body blow to the NSW solar industry which has seen a number of setbacks under the O’Farrell Government.

Sad Silex Solar

For full details of the collapse, see this Sydney Morning Herald article.

Silex chief executive Michael Goldsworthy blamed the usual suspects for the company’s demise doors including an oblique reference to ”… we think we’re seeing dumping” (read China solar panel production here). An interestingly-titled “Interim Operational Update” issued by Silex on the 15th November didn’t hold back.

[Read more…]

Solar Makes Sense Says AuSES Boss as Fallout over NSW Bonus Scheme Continues

“More than ever solar makes sense.”

These were the words uttered by Australian Solar Energy Society (AuSES) boss John Grimes to reporters this week, reacting to the storm created by the NSW Auditor General’s report on the state’s disastrous solar bonus scheme. And his words were like an oasis in the desert of recriminations for the true solar believer in NSW folks.

[Read more…]

Will Port Augusta Point the Way to the Future of Solar Power?

This week’s column will take you into the realms of fantasy (if you’re a talk radio shock jock or anti-renewable pollie). Yes folks we’re treading into the dangerous territory of the concept of solar energy as baseload electricity.

For years one of the constant carping criticisms aimed at renewable energy in this country has been that it won’t provide baseload power resource in the same way as good ole fossil fuel-derived power. The argument goes that when the sun stops shining, or the wind stops blowing, renewable energy cannot deliver.

While the criticism may well have been a smokescreen thrown up to keep high polluting coal plants in operation, the point is valid: how can you rely on a source of energy if the power it creates cannot be stored?

[Read more…]

Tassie comes in from the cold

Vast solar arrays in the middle of our hot baking deserts or mainland cities awash with solar panels are generally considered the most efficient way to soak up the abundant sun for energy in our country. In terms of suitability for solar farms in this wide, brown land of ours, the mind definitely points to swelteringly hot parts of the mainland, rather than the cool, fresh, green island of Tasmania.

Not so according to a recent study by the American Chemical Society journal Environmental Science & Technology which says the cooler regions of the world are, contrary to general belief, an excellent area to generate massive amounts of solar energy. The report says that cool climates, particularly those at a higher altitude, have massive potential to generate solar-powered electricity.

[Read more…]

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