Australia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions To Decline, But…

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A bit of good news. A report released this morning indicates Australia’s carbon emissions will decline over the next few years thanks to wind and solar energy. Beyond that is another matter.

Professor Andrew Blakers and Dr Matthew Stocks from the Australian National University (ANU) say the country’s greenhouse gas emissions are peaking at approximately 540 Megatonnes (MT) of CO2-equivalent per year and are expected to decline by 3-4% over 2020-2022.

“The reason is that Australia’s world-leading per-capita rate of deployment of solar and wind energy is displacing fossil fuel combustion,” state the pair.

Renewable Energy The Heavy Lifter

Reductions in electricity sector emissions will soon be more substantial than increases in emissions from all other sectors combined they say. Australia is installing 16-17 gigawatts of new solar PV and wind capacity over the 2018-2020 period, which is nearly 3 times faster per capita than the next best country, Germany, and 10 times faster per capita than the global average.

If the current renewables deployment rate was to continue, Australia will reach 50% renewable electricity in 2024. Under the current rate, Australia would deploy 71 GW of new wind farms, solar farms and rooftop solar over 2018-2030, translating to 136 terawatt-hours (TWh) of new renewable electricity per year in 2030 and providing an emissions reduction of approximately 125MT in that year.

The researchers state deployment of wind and solar energy is the cheapest way to make deep cuts in emissions due to their low and ongoing falling cost.

“This is a message of hope for reducing our emissions at low cost,” said Professor Blakers.

So, how is this optimistic scenario to be achieved? Professor Blakers and Dr. Stocks say this will depend on governments – primarily the Federal Government – facilitating construction of adequate electricity transmission and energy storage infrastructure to allow continued rapid deployment of wind and solar power. Stopping or slowing Australia’s renewables juggernaut due to insufficient transmission and storage could result in emissions again rising from 2022.

No Kyoto Cookery Required

Professor Blakers and Dr. Stocks believe renewables are key to Australia meeting its Paris emissions target at low or zero net cost – and without the Morrison Government cooking the books by using “carry-over” credits from the Kyoto Protocol. Earlier this week it was revealed Australia appears to be the only country planning to use the controversial practice to meet its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

The pair also say it is viable to retire Australia’s entire fleet of ageing coal-fired power stations during the next decade at low or zero net cost.

The full policy briefing can be downloaded here.